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Pattern Dazzling December

LukeBarrette said:
Real reason things looked great on that run is because of an improved pacific
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Ridge builds much farther west which allows cold and storm chances to come farther southeast. Love seeing this, but it’s just one run…
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah that exact solution will probably never happen, but that is right at the beginning of the timeframe I think we might have potential. -AO holding strong, intensity of the -NAO relaxes slightly, PNA just about neutral, and the MJO in a good position. I know Fro likes this time frame as well.
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PNA is going down slightly.
 
starsfan68 said:
PNA is going down slightly.
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The next several days yes, which coincides with the torch this week,but the teleconnection updates on weather.gov have been very consistent on moving the PNA very close to neutral by the 15th. After that it’s showing signs of going slightly positive.
 
Chazwin said:
The next several days yes, which coincides with the torch this week,but the teleconnection updates on weather.gov have been very consistent on moving the PNA very close to neutral by the 15th. After that it’s showing signs of going slightly positive.
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I live in Texas
 
Pacific did show flashes of better progressions vs past few days which is interesting per webbers new product put out earlier today showing there was much less confidence in the pacific pattern which in turn gives you wild swings in model output ..as you can see with the most recent model runs how much it impacts our weather. What it was confident about was that Greenland block which is a great piece to have locked in right now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The trend around day 5-7 has been less southeast ridge and more pacific polar source waves to pass and undercut the Atlantic block which effectively kickstarts the progression and step down process of the pattern View attachment 124798View attachment 124799
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Absolutely. If we can keep this trend of strengthening the block and the strength of the undercutting waves, we may get somewhere sooner than later...nevertheless, great signs to at least see a real wintery pattern by the week of Christmas if we can just hold the line. Last time I said that, everything went to crap afterwards lol.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Pacific did show flashes of better progressions vs past few days which is interesting per webbers new product put out earlier today showing there was much less confidence in the pacific pattern which in turn gives you wild swings in model output ..as you can see with the most recent model runs how much it impacts our weather. What it was confident about was that Greenland block which is a great piece to have locked in right now.
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It’s also important to point that some of the improvement in the Pacific was a result of the blocking beginning to back up the flow.
 
Meh the GEFS is not similar to the GFS at all
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I have my reservations about this but I love model watching so I won’t be a doom and gloomer ☃️
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Never seen anyone explicitly state it that way, but I'm with you, "I love model watching"

Here is yesterday's happy hour GEFS vs today's at day 11-12. Better pattern across the CONUS, better block, more ridging in NW Asia (breeding ground for retrograding blocks and good location for weakening the Strat PV). Not quite where we need to be in the Aleutians / Alaska.

Overall, the GFS has been trending toward the CMC and Euro over the past day or so with respect to moving Pac waves east up under the block out in time.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Why does it gotta be hour 312 that’s so beautiful. Pacific looks great with a extended pacific jet and a ridge above AK View attachment 124790View attachment 124791
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The EPS continues to progress nicely. Sfc charts here on first loop for days 6 to 15 on the EPS show high pressure and cold surge moving into E Asia (adding +EAsia Mtn Torque and helps to excite the Maritime Continent > West Pacific MJO related convection)...with associated Pac jet extension as you mentioned. 2nd map is the Euro Control run showing the surge in the Pac Jet days 7 to 15

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This weekend has been great for model watching. Improvement on almost every cycle. Buckle up fellas! If energy gets trapped under the block it’s gonna get interesting quickly. Gfs extended control run also had the same storm as the op gfs.
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On the control run the storm hits between Friday and Saturday 17th/18th

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What a one run change from the CMC, possible table setter?
 
HKY1994 said:
This weekend has been great for model watching. Improvement on almost every cycle. Buckle up fellas! If energy gets trapped under the block it’s gonna get interesting quickly. Gfs extended control run also had the same storm as the op gfs.
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On the control run the storm hits between Friday and Saturday 17th/18th

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Models have been hinting at something the second half of the month for a while, too. I think there is certainly a lot of noise that it's a legit chance we see a winter storm around this time.
 
WxSouth's thoughts.

The last two posts were about the frequent rains coming and those 2 cold shots, all of which is going as scheduled. Hope you like rain...some "La Nina" huh? We actually have a good tap to the Baja now, similar to El Nino Winters, and a lot of rain coming to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley this upcoming week. And then, all eyes turn to a MEGA block pattern.
That extreme block, the biggest in many years, is what I've been alerting my clients to for a couple of weeks now. When Greenland Blocks like this form between December to early March, it's almost always a guarantee of Winter precip hitting the ground shortly thereafter--and pretty far south. Each one is different (Does Dallas and Atlanta get in? Nashville and Raleigh, Norfolk? ) Some do, but not all of course, in the same storm, in rare cases a widespread biggie happens though..., but the point is, I see a definite, distinct turn toward Winter like Weather by Mid December and beyond. Models have a tough time adjusting the wavelengths and paths of storms when huge blocks like this show up, so if you're a model watcher--expect volatile run to run changes. But in time they must bend to fit the driver of the pattern, which is this gigantic monster of a long lasting block.....the best in a few years. Specifics will be ironed out in time on my blog site for members. Might want to ask Santa for some Winter Gear this year in some spots down South....I think eventually they'll be useful....if not on this particular round of blocking, then on the one likely in January or February.
 
If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.
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Oh I get it I just love posting them because they are hilarious. I’ll do it a little less from now on
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.
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What GFS is showing is actually what you would expect if we’re hoping for a real pattern shift. That line is nasty around 240hr. Big washout then moderation on the tail end. Bring it ? ☃️
 
LukeBarrette said:
Oh I get it I just love posting them because they are hilarious. I’ll do it a little less from now on
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Hey you do you .. I’m just trying to reassure anyone that this is expected and not to worry too much about run to run variability. Gfs is a clown model that got a downgrade right before our winter season. I don’t really want to trust it at all past hour 100 lol
 
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