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Pattern Dazzling December

How wonderful is this
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NoSnowATL said:
Temps 25-35 . 15-25 = dry as hell.
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Yep, was always wanted the cold airmass to be 40-45 and 25-30 for lows. It’s amazing from the illustrations above, that 90% of the cold air in the world being in Europe and Asia, and the US still gets very cold!
 
Chazwin said:
Great point. Heck the biggest storm that I’ve personally gone through in February 2004 had a lowest temperature of 28 degrees and that was during the heaviest rates as the upper low passed over… most of that storm was about 30-31 degrees and I ended up with 19” IMBY
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Yep, reminds us again how anomalous Jan 88 was! Heavy snow all day at 15-20 degrees! By Jan 1st my average daytime high is 28, will gladly share with the rest of y’all!
 
Good to see the models starting to drive energy through and under the NAtl block now within the day 5-6 window. Once that process starts we should start developing more consistent eastern troughing but it will always be a little muted by a lackluster pacific.
 
Robert West said:
View attachment 124789
Lot of energy flying around. Has this event also.
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Really a lot of signals on the models for something in that timeframe… again though I don’t think this is anything wintry outside of the mountains south of the Mid-Atlantic, but I think there is a low that begins setting the table for the time to follow. Something like this would certainly build up snow pack to our north
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Why does it gotta be hour 312 that’s so beautiful. Pacific looks great with a extended pacific jet and a ridge above AK View attachment 124790View attachment 124791
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This may just be the result of continued table setters that eventually sets us up for an amazing set up around Christmas. I’m honestly fine with building snow pack to the north and continued diving pieces of energy. Not only are we setting up a better ‘fridge’ up top, we also could be helping reinforce that -NAO with the continued pieces of energy helping to keep it pumped up.
 
Nice cool down on the eps late in the run about 4-6 degrees cooler than the 0z run with a lot if the warm members going away. I'd just be happy to roll through the 10th-25th at normal or just below I know some want death cold but 45-55 and 25-35 would be nice Christmas weather
 
I just now realized that today is the 20th anniversary of one the worst ice storms ever to hit the Carolinas. Everyone that went through that will always remember the sounds of trees snapping and power transformers popping. I was living in Concord, NC at the time and after a really quick 1/2” of sleet/snow, precip changed to light freezing rain and and it continued steady for 18 hours. Biggest ice accrual I’ve personally witnessed just a bit over an inch thick.
 
Chazwin said:
I just now realized that today is the 20th anniversary of one the worst ice storms ever to hit the Carolinas. Everyone that went through that will always remember the sounds of trees snapping and power transformers popping. I was living in Concord, NC at the time and after a really quick 1/2” of sleet/snow, precip changed to light freezing rain and and it continued steady for 18 hours. Biggest ice accrual I’ve personally witnessed just a bit over an inch thick.
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Hope it happens again
 
Chazwin said:
I just now realized that today is the 20th anniversary of one the worst ice storms ever to hit the Carolinas. Everyone that went through that will always remember the sounds of trees snapping and power transformers popping. I was living in Concord, NC at the time and after a really quick 1/2” of sleet/snow, precip changed to light freezing rain and and it continued steady for 18 hours. Biggest ice accrual I’ve personally witnessed just a bit over an inch thick.
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Something else that was impressive about this storm was the temperatures. A very strong CAD that caused temperature drops of 30-35 degrees in a matter of 12 hours or so before precip began. During the storm, temperatures hovered between 25-28 in my location for the entire storm. So much for latent heating
 
SimeonNC said:
It's honestly better that it won't be super cold due to the fact that the coldest patterns tend to be dry.

If you want snow, you want it cold but not too cold.

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Usually this is the case, the very cold air is too dry to produce winter precipitation and by the time the next system arrives, the temperatures are too warm to produce any thing but some ice at the onset. I do remember when I was a teenager the March 2, 1980 storm that blanketed Eastern North Carolina with some of the most impressive snowfall totals ever seen there. I was living in Eastern Wake County then and the high temperature that day at my location on the bulb thermometer that day was 17 degrees. I ended up getting around fifteen inches of snow out of that storm. That and the January 24-25 snowstorm in 2000 are two storms I will never forget. Good memories for me!
 
I'm calling it rn, December as a whole will probably be about average for my area and NC in general, outside of the first few days of next week there doesn't seem to be much prolonged torching. And unless something goes horribly wrong, the forecast pattern change could offset the torch.

The main thing that could keep us above average is the warm lows, which seems to be a problem in recent winters.



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SimeonNC said:
I'm calling it rn, December as a whole will probably be about average for my area and NC in general, outside of the first few days of next week there doesn't seem to be much prolonged torching. And unless something goes horribly wrong, the forecast pattern change could offset the torch.

The main thing that could keep us above average is the warm lows, which seems to be a problem in recent winters.



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If I had to bet money on what I’m seeing right now, I would still bet that KCLT ends up just slightly above average for the month. Later this week is absolutely gonna torch for several days, especially overnight as we may have 3 straight nights with lows in the 50s to near 60…. a good 20 degree + above average. Even after that, while daytime temps will be fairly close to average, we probably have to wait a week or so before getting back down to average or below on lows.
 
Chazwin said:
If I had to bet money on what I’m seeing right now, I would still bet that KCLT ends up just slightly above average for the month. Later this week is absolutely gonna torch for several days, especially overnight as we may have 3 straight nights with lows in the 50s to near 60…. a good 20 degree + above average. Even after that, while daytime temps will be fairly close to average, we probably have to wait a week or so before getting back down to average or below on lows.
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I am tired of 70 degree weather!!!!!!
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I just love seeing the colors lol. I know it’s 1000% wrong and never going to happen


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Yeah that exact solution will probably never happen, but that is right at the beginning of the timeframe I think we might have potential. -AO holding strong, intensity of the -NAO relaxes slightly, PNA just about neutral, and the MJO in a good position. I know Fro likes this time frame as well.
 
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