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Pattern Dazzling December

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Minor run to run change. Mostly noise. ? View attachment 124822View attachment 124823
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WOW! Did someone say we now have the new and improved version of the GFS? I think the old MRF was more consistent even if it wasn't that accurate. You do see fluctuations in the EPS and the GEPS but not a completely opposite idea on the configuration of the systems top to bottom almost every run. After 5 days it seems the GFS is useless!
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Not a huge fan of the overnight model runs. Even the gefs and eps backed down quite a bit.


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I didn’t see anything to be concerned. Still continuing the general theme. There’s gonna be fluctuations from run to run especially more than a few days out. The GFS on the other hand… I’m honestly finding it harder and harder to take seriously… fluctuations are one thing, but going back on forth on large scale patterns every 6 hours is rediculous
 
We should have put this disclaimer in this thread over a week ago. Most already know this, but as has been posted above from overnight. You will get run to run massive changes on models LR and even in the medium range. Espeacilly American suite. Its a bummer as we like to watch Models for clues and try to solve the puzzle daily.

Robert said it best a few post back.

"Models have a tough time adjusting the wavelengths and paths of storms when huge blocks like this show up, so if you're a model watcher--expect volatile run to run changes. But in time they must bend to fit the driver of the pattern, which is this gigantic monster of a long lasting block.....the best in a few years."
 
Chazwin said:
I didn’t see anything to be concerned. Still continuing the general theme. There’s gonna be fluctuations from run to run especially more than a few days out. The GFS on the other hand… I’m honestly finding it harder and harder to take seriously… fluctuations are one thing, but going back on forth on large scale patterns every 6 hours is rediculous
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Yeah I get that. I’m honestly not even going to look at the GFS anymore. But the ensembles are meh. Still slightly below to average. I guess that’s not the worst


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Good trends on the EPS continue and are moving forward in time.

eps_z500a_nhem_fh240_trend (2).gif

GEFS doesn't look as good at D10 and also seems much more erratic (a hallmark of the GEFS IMO). I personally think the GEFS is by far the worst ensemble suite and I put little stock in it good or bad. Been burned many times using it.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh240_trend.gif
 
Also the Euro look around D7-10 is intriguing in some ways. If the timing/separation of the wavelengths were to change -- possible with how far out this is and the strength of the block over Hudson Bay and flow getting blocked up -- a much more suppressed system could develop with the players on the field on the 00z Euro. Would need more wave separation and a strong lead system to setup a strong 50/50 under the block, with trailing energy to carve out the trailing trough and attendant storm, but it could happen who knows. Just something interesting IMO to watch.

ecmwf_z500_vort_namer_fh150-240.gif

ecmwf_T850_namer_fh150-240.gif
 
Hypsometric said:
Good trends on the EPS continue and are moving forward in time.

View attachment 124836

GEFS doesn't look as good at D10 and also seems much more erratic (a hallmark of the GEFS IMO). I personally think the GEFS is by far the worst ensemble suite and I put little stock in it good or bad. Been burned many times using it.

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Agree, EPS looks much better. But per previous posts from Webb and Grit, it seemed like the GEFS had a better handle on the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean and was more likely right in the Pacific's development pattern. That was my takeaway, anyway. Thus I'm hesitant to go all in on it.
 
SD said:
Here's to hoping the weekend system can bomb into the 950s off the EC
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Maybe we can get some help from an Atlantic recurving TC :p

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Loganelliott99 said:
I truly thought I posted in whamby thread. You know if it showed record cold and snow it would be posted no Matter what the time stamp was lol


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It's kind of hard to worry too much about the LR GFS this year. We honestly don't know what we've got there, in terms of usefulness. Word is, it's not very good out in time. I know that's not really news, but that was called out specifically wrt this new version. We've already seen its propensity for bouncing around.

Looking at the Euro op and its ensembles and the Canadian ensembles is probably the right way to go. If they continue to stiff arm the pattern change or undo it altogether, then it will be time to worry.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's kind of hard to worry too much about the LR GFS this year. We honestly don't know what we've got there, in terms of usefulness. Word is, it's not very good out in time. I know that's not really news, but that was called out specifically wrt this new version. We've already seen its propensity for bouncing around.

Looking at the Euro op and its ensembles and the Canadian ensembles is probably the right way to go. If they continue to stiff arm the pattern change or undo it altogether, then it will be time to worry.
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I absolutely agree with you


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Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
 
Stevo24 said:
Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
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It feels like the last couple years the EURO has been performing horridly. But they are both really bad imo
 
Stevo24 said:
Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
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The Euro used to be regarded as Dr. No, Killer of GFS dreams. Not so much anymore.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
It feels like the last couple years the EURO has been performing horridly. But they are both really bad imo
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The Euro has had the best verification scores by a wide margin, but you’re right that it has probably had more misses the last couple years than what we’re accustomed to. One thing that I remember Grit saying last week is that the Euro has historically performed better in periods of high latitude blocking. I looked back at some of the periods in past years that had similar blocking to what we are seeing develop and the Euro did indeed do very well. A couple storms that I noticed it latched onto nearly 10 days out were 1/28-29/2010, 12/25-26/2010, and 2/12-13/2014.
 
Chazwin said:
The Euro has had the best verification scores by a wide margin, but you’re right that it has probably had more misses the last couple years than what we’re accustomed to. One thing that I remember Grit saying last week is that the Euro has historically performed better in periods of high latitude blocking. I looked back at some of the periods in past years that had similar blocking to what we are seeing develop and the Euro did indeed do very well. A couple storms that I noticed it latched onto nearly 10 days out were 1/28-29/2010, 12/25-26/2010, and 2/12-13/2014.
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So basically we really have no clue lol could be warm could be cold.
 
jeremyt said:
How much is the area in the Atlantic throwing off the models?
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That's a great question. It may be having a downstream effect, but I'm not sure it's the main problem - I think it's just the poor resolution of the GEFS beyond truncation. Look at how much more poorly resolved the SLP field is everywhere at 192 and beyond. It's the reason why we see these dramatic changes at this time interval so often.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh180_trend.gif
 
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