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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Like I said the other day. There is no perfect pattern for snow here. The modeled pattern doesn't look that cold. If we connect the blocks up top we lose cross polar flow and we will have temp issues. If we had a tall western ridge and cross polar flow with a +NAO we rely on timing and we have to be really lucky to time something.
With that said I'd prefer the modeled pattern even if not frigid can lock in below average temps and slow the flow and cause storms to get hung in the 50/50 region giving confluence and pushing the storm track south. My opinion that gives us higher chances to score. Question is will it be cold enough or will we get 33 and rain?
With that said I'd prefer the modeled pattern even if not frigid can lock in below average temps and slow the flow and cause storms to get hung in the 50/50 region giving confluence and pushing the storm track south. My opinion that gives us higher chances to score. Question is will it be cold enough or will we get 33 and rain?
Signs of life
olhausen
Member
Damn, My average highs are in the 40s from around December 7th until very late February. I couldn’t do Florida or even San Diego where I grew up. I like cold and snow to much, especially during the holiday season. I remember in California when we’d get strong Santa Ana winds and it would be 90 around Christmas time. No thanks! current temp is 39 degrees here at noon and I love it!
That's actually one heck of a signal at that range.
BHS1975
Member
Given the incessant record heat this past month has been and how warm the start to December will be I'm glad January looks quite different. Jubilant January!!
I've noticed persistent ridging over the western Caribbean around winter the last several years causing S FL to roast.
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This is gonna be close
I don’t really see any signs that this is coming from a cross polar flow… if it were then we’d absolutely be having to worry about suppression. This more from the cold air that has been building over Alaska and Canada for the last few weeks…. Which I think is fine as long as we don’t see anything that floods Canada with moist Pacific air
Euro has some very light snow next Saturday Morning for a good chunk of NC plus the border counties of SC.
Wow euro in general agreement .. does spit out some snow around NC although very sporadic .. still skeptical .. this is a very thread the needle type of set up
Absolutely beautiful confluence with backed up flow in the Atlantic, if the first one fails then the second one always has a better shot 
Reminds me of all the small events in Dec 2010 that eventually led to the big one later in the month around Christmas.
Great look to end off the euro, with a shortwave entering the PNW and a big time low in the Atlantic backed up under the block serving as confluence, starting to see the endless potential enter the OP models. 
Some minor EPS support , nothing exciting but this is a first ensemble run showing support to its op around this time 
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This is the easily the best EPS run so far at H5, the strongest signal yet 
Really good look. I don't particularly care what specific days it bounces around on since we're headed into climo. Be happy to just keep that going for awhile. It's redzone stuff.
NWMSGuy
Member
With the potential upcoming pattern change that is being discussed I have heard a lot of talk regarding the year 2010. Are there any other previous decades that this potential pattern resembles?
---- ---- damn
Hypsometric
Member
It's really the 5 day period after this -- if we can continue to hold this look -- that excites me. The west-based, -NAO is established with a signal for additional Pacific waves to move onshore and take a suppressed track. Anything before the 15th would be gravy, but that time period opening around the 16th-18th onward is when it's going to get exciting for most on here I believe.