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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

I'm all for easy baking the ATL latent heat transfer mechanism at this stage for Dec/Jan warmista cores, ECMWF indicates we could be pushing the later half of Sept, past peak, and at best a Gulf spin-up. I don't see anything on the radar or beyond, while not a full blown bust the envelope is closing. It's 9/7 after all, and we are still Day 10 +. It only takes 1, the likelihood of many is closing once we hit end of month.
 
WeatherNC said:
I'm all for easy baking the ATL latent heat transfer mechanism at this stage for Dec/Jan warmista cores, ECMWF indicates we could be pushing the later half of Sept, past peak, and at best a Gulf spin-up. I don't see anything on the radar or beyond, while not a full blown bust the envelope is closing. It's 9/7 after all, and we are still Day 10 +. It only takes 1, the likelihood of many is closing once we hit end of month.
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Yeah it's gonna be increasingly hard to get something from the east make it across and the Western Gulf at least will start to shut down once the fronts start clearing
 
The front next week is at least worth keeping an eye on for something in close. I'd also watch how the 500mb ridge acts in the west Atlantic. If it doesn't get beat down it may direct a few waves in close in about 10-15 days or potentially help pull something out of the deep Caribbean
 
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

1662996176215.png

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
 
smast16 said:
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

View attachment 121365

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
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We are past peak and the next 14 days look like poop. This season was and is a record bust. This is why you should never listen to predictions. Go ask Taxas AM about that!
 
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smast16 said:
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

View attachment 121365

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
Click to expand...
There is no way we’ll reach 17 named storms. I won’t be surprised if we don’t get into the double digits
 
May have to watch that look on the Euro. The GFS is being the GFS, but the Euro showing the same look aloft is how we get hit and possibly hit hard with the right timing under that ridge with the trough out west.
 
Looks like the wave around 10N 45W is what gets into the Caribbean and potentially the gulf. Outflow from fiona will be an issue early as well as interaction with South America potentially but once it's in the central/western Caribbean it'll have a decent environment to get going
 
SD said:
Looks like the wave around 10N 45W is what gets into the Caribbean and potentially the gulf. Outflow from fiona will be an issue early as well as interaction with South America potentially but once it's in the central/western Caribbean it'll have a decent environment to get going
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This one is definitely the one to watch
 
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the system approaches the
Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the
eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
The 12z GFS and ensemble support has this tropical feature organizing quickly.

goes16-ir-catl.gif


us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2022091912_78_1466_149.png
 
Under the assumption something gets going the window of landfall is abnormally large with a relatively fast pattern across the US leading to a flexing and retracting west atlantic ridge, the heat ridge anchored over Texas to the west, and the ultimate strength leading to how quickly a turn gets going out of the Caribbean. Cases could be made from Hatteras to probably Honduras
 
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