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Pattern July '22

superjames1992 said:
London’s all-time record high temperature is now higher than Greensboro, NC, and just shy of Raleigh’s all-time high. ?

The UK/Western European heatwave is wild stuff.
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Yeah but they had to drop their dews to the 40s for it to happen . We can do that with dews in the upper 60s and low 70s.
 
SD said:
Op gfs would be a heatwave for the record books around here at least a week straight near or over 100. We are likely to have some very hot days mixed in here over the next 7-10 days but you have to think the cmc and icon are a little more realistic with the hottest days being near 100 but the majority of days 92-97
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Can’t get that hot with this kind of soil moisture! Rain begets rainF596CEA8-19DC-4FA9-A42C-891EC4182BBD.png
 
Finally something different on the weather apps here we'll see if it verifies. By then it'll be 2 weeks straight over 100 Screenshot_20220720-093635.png
 
Last Thursday's convective event with widespread road closures, plus a lightning strike that damaged a water main line to a neighboring business of where I work.

The strike was 42 ft away...
I compiled this video of radar images and a short clip of the lightning aftermath to the tree...

 
Stormsfury said:
Last Thursday's convective event with widespread road closures, plus a lightning strike that damaged a water main line to a neighboring business of where I work.

The strike was 42 ft away...
I compiled this video of radar images and a short clip of the lightning aftermath to the tree...

Click to expand...

Lightning is a water main and water workers worst enemy.
 
Stormsfury said:
Last Thursday's convective event with widespread road closures, plus a lightning strike that damaged a water main line to a neighboring business of where I work.

The strike was 42 ft away...
I compiled this video of radar images and a short clip of the lightning aftermath to the tree...

Click to expand...


Shaggy said:
It's almost as hot as Texas in the warehouse today. Gonna be a long 8 hours.
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I had a lighting strike about 200 yards from my house in a neighbors yard about two weeks ago and it did a number on the electronics in my house. It blew out the modem and cable box in the den, knocked out my phone landline and worst of all it fried the blower motor and thermostat on my air conditioner. Between that and the wind damage to my backyard about a month earlier, it has been a rough year as far as storm damage at my residence.
 
weather bubba said:
I had a lighting strike about 200 yards from my house in a neighbors yard about two weeks ago and it did a number on the electronics in my house. It blew out the modem and cable box in the den, knocked out my phone landline and worst of all it fried the blower motor and thermostat on my air conditioner. Between that and the wind damage to my backyard about a month earlier, it has been a rough year as far as storm damage at my residence.
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Yeah, lightning emits EMP so it doesn't have to directly strike to cause electrical damage. I'm actually surprised, my work didn't experience a power loss or dealing with 36 automated pinsetters that we didn't have at least some disruption somehow (although on Monday, one of the machines fried some wires...and I needed to rewire a 5 cable plug receptacle)
 
weather bubba said:
I had a lighting strike about 200 yards from my house in a neighbors yard about two weeks ago and it did a number on the electronics in my house. It blew out the modem and cable box in the den, knocked out my phone landline and worst of all it fried the blower motor and thermostat on my air conditioner. Between that and the wind damage to my backyard about a month earlier, it has been a rough year as far as storm damage at my residence.
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You still got landlines?
 
Pretty chaotic forecast tomorrow, with the CAMs all over the place with solutions.

Anything from mid 80s with widespread light showers to nothing with temps in the low 100s.
 
From KATL/KFFC

2 maybe 3 rounds of storms expected today. The 1st line going
through ATL right now with the second surge moving south out of
TN this morning. The 3rd round will be the diurnally driven storms
expected this afternoon.
 
smast16 said:
Only 10% off.

View attachment 120071


@SD Do i get to be Mod for the afternoon now?
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Weather offices really need to drop the percentage forecasting. When any given day changes by 20-30% from one day to the next, the percent chance offers no value. Just go with slight, good or high chance, or something like that. Bouncing around from 20% to 50% to 30% back to 20% is dumb.
 
Rain Cold said:
Weather offices really need to drop the percentage forecasting. When any given day changes by 20-30% from one day to the next, the percent chance offers no value. Just go with slight, good or high chance, or something like that. Bouncing around from 20% to 50% to 30% back to 20% is dumb.
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Totally agree, like when it is say, 70%, people will ----- and say ,,wow I did not get a drop, what a bust..
 
smast16 said:
Only 10% off.

View attachment 120071


@SD Do i get to be Mod for the afternoon now?
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Yeah I'm fully expecting nothing today. Today was the most hyped day of the week for rain chances and severe weather so that means I likely get nothing. I'm not saying it's going to bust for the Carolinas or downplaying it at all. I'm speaking of my general location and my experienced in my area. It's supposed to still be another round this evening. But I bet the line that has formed southeast of me has something to say about that and will limit instability for later.
 
Rain Cold said:
Weather offices really need to drop the percentage forecasting. When any given day changes by 20-30% from one day to the next, the percent chance offers no value. Just go with slight, good or high chance, or something like that. Bouncing around from 20% to 50% to 30% back to 20% is dumb.
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They could throw 20-30% up there the entire summer around here tbh and that would cover it. Only time chances really go up in the summer are stalled out fronts, rare slp moving through or early TC otherwise it's basically wash, rinse, repeat
 
I don't see what's dumb about % PoP's, be it 20% or 70%. It's a measure of coverage of precipitation, and how confident a forecaster or a model is that precip will develop.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah I'm fully expecting nothing today. Today was the most hyped day of the week for rain chances and severe weather so that means I likely get nothing. I'm not saying it's going to bust for the Carolinas or downplaying it at all. I'm speaking of my general location and my experienced in my area. It's supposed to still be another round this evening. But I bet the line that has formed southeast of me has something to say about that and will limit instability for later.
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Oh, it'll rain somewhere in the Carolinas today for sure, And someone will get a great storm. We just know where it WON'T rain today.
 
Record non record intrahour record of records today . Stay tuned boys. #Records . Going to be a record on the intrahours .
 
StormDrain said:
I don't see what's dumb about % PoP's, be it 20% or 70%. It's a measure of coverage of precipitation, and how confident a forecaster or a model is that precip will develop.
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That is not correct. It's a probability of Precipitation for a given area, in a given period of time.

"
What does this "30 percent" mean?

Probability of precipitation describes:

  • The chance of precipitation...
  • ...at a particular point
  • ...over a certain period of time.
"

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/pops
 
StormDrain said:
I don't see what's dumb about % PoP's, be it 20% or 70%. It's a measure of coverage of precipitation, and how confident a forecaster or a model is that precip will develop.
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But when people like Brick see 60% chance of snow, they go postal when it doesn’t or just rains
 
StormDrain said:
I don't see what's dumb about % PoP's, be it 20% or 70%. It's a measure of coverage of precipitation, and how confident a forecaster or a model is that precip will develop.
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Biggest thing I have noticed is a lot of days, especially during summer, where there was a 70%-80% chance of rain/storm, it never materialized at all. I get the measurement is based on coverage and confidence in that, but if 70% or 80% is given, then a majority of the area should see rain and that hasn't been the case. It has remained extremely localized.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah I'm fully expecting nothing today. Today was the most hyped day of the week for rain chances and severe weather so that means I likely get nothing. I'm not saying it's going to bust for the Carolinas or downplaying it at all. I'm speaking of my general location and my experienced in my area. It's supposed to still be another round this evening. But I bet the line that has formed southeast of me has something to say about that and will limit instability for later.
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Yep. -------- just pretty much hung it up. Pretty much a non event for the CLT area back thru the upstate it looks.Screenshot_20220721-105509_Facebook.jpg
 
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