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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

iGRXY said:
I remember the days when people wouldn’t even consider the RGEM solution (any time before this winter) and now we are looking at it like it’s the EURO of old. Just funny to see how things change so fast.
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Its Grits fault for flying that maple leaf flag the other day lol.

Hey is fv3 the old gfs or a beta test of new one?
 
Think the GEFS might be slightly worse but we will see
 
Overall, think the GEFS is pretty similar to 18z. Little change at 500mb. There does seem to be a little more consensus within the individual members for the SLP position, but largely similar -- may lead to more of consolidation within the mean GEFS precip and less outliers to skew precip field

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metwannabe said:
GEFS smidge worse but not horrible

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If you showed me this map last month and said this is what the GFS ensembles will show at hour 75 one day next month I would be licking my chops let’s tamper any cliff jumping tonight fellas
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you showed me this map last month and said this is what the GFS ensembles will show at hour 75 one day next month I would be licking my chops let’s tamper any cliff jumping tonight fellas
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Nobody is cliff jumping let's tamper telling everyone how they should react tonight fella
 
I will say this. These later phase runs on the other 0z suites make me believe the 6z NAM will more likely be different than it's 12z run than actually like it. Of course that is my belief prior to the 0z euro run. :)
 
ILMRoss said:
i was neutral on the christian mccaffery model, deeper but a little quicker and we don't really win the "where is it cutting off" sweepstakes. some mixed signals everywhere tonight, euro will break the tie.
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I think we’re seeing different solutions simply because we don’t yet have the best data going into these models. Tomorrow is when these pieces of energy begin moving on shore, so I think by 0z tomorrow night, we’ll have a general idea of what this Storm, if there is one, will ultimately do
 
Outside of the NAM,which is completely unreliable,we are clearly trending towards a later phase/a futher north low pressure system on the models. Maybe the RGEM is on to something after all. It was one of the few models that had the preciptation futher southwest on the last week system. Here it's showing that the storm doesn't develop until it almost gets towards the Virgina coast. I give it until the enegry gets sampled before I give up,but unless I lived in NE North Carolina and points North, I would keep my expectations quite low.
 
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The 00z GGEM may not be the glory run we want, but I’d say it’s an improvement over the 12z run. Decent storm for E NC. Gets an inch back to as far as Raleigh.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Outside of the NAM,which is completely unreliable,we are clearly trending towards a later phase/a futher north low pressure system on the models. Maybe the RGEM is on to something after all. It was one of the few models that had the preciptation futher southwest on the last week system. Here it's showing that the storm doesn't develop until it almost gets towards the Virgina coast. I give it until the enegry gets sampled before I give up,but unless I lived in NE North Carolina and points North, I would keep my expectations quite low.
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There’s really not been any clear trend… before 0z GFS and RGEM, every model has been ticking to an earlier phase on every run today.
 
Shawn said:
06z NAM looked more like 18z (vs the epic 00z) at h500 but it's still a nice snow in the Carolinas.
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I can't wait until things get better sampling. We can get more clarity of exactly what we have at play. Hopefully that will lead to more of a westward trend for more folks to get in the game.
 
The 00z ECMWF is farther east than the GFS or Canadian with the
surface low and its associated moisture, lift, and QPF fields
Friday into Friday night. GFS ensembles even at 72 hours (00z
Saturday) display a wide variety of surface low positions from
on top of Frying Pan Shoals to almost 300 miles offshore,
making confidence in the specifics of this forecast rather low.
This becomes particularly important Friday night as the
deepening upper trough approaches from the west and may begin
to acquire a negative tilt. Plunging column temperatures behind
the rapidly deepening surface low offshore plus lingering
moisture aloft within the dendritic growth zone could lead to
rain changing to snow before ending Saturday morning. There`s
plenty of uncertainty, but there could be a 6-hour period where
snow could fall, particularly across inland southeast NC where
we`re penciling in up to 1 inch of snow accumulation. After
going literally years without a significant winter weather
event, this will be our third shot at wintry precipitation in
two weeks!
 
DLI4SCwx said:
I can't wait until things get better sampling. We can get more clarity of exactly what we have at play. Hopefully that will lead to more of a westward trend for more folks to get in the game.
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Yeah, CAE was slightly too far West on the previous run for example. Both the SC and NC coast looked great though.
 
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