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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I fixed it -- the one you quoted is the correct one.
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man that's sick, first time i've seen that reanalysis. my dad was in grad school at syracuse at the time and was driving back to wilmington for spring break- had a terrible car and by the time he hit SE NC the snow was deep enough to get stuck. he had car of marines from legeune behind him and whenever he'd get stuck they'd have to come out to help him push. wilmington has had a bunch of 2-4 inch events but man it would be sick for that area to get another big one soon.

I didn't know that event started was two pronged. according to my mom, it stormed about 12 hours before the snow started so that makes sense. it also looks like that first event pushed a nice baroclinic zone off the coast because the second wave sure looked like the instant occlusion chart i showed earlier.

One point, looks like the thickness line on the gif may be a little out of sync, otherwise it looks perfect. gives me creedence to say some place will probably not be receiving 30 inches.
 
One thing I noticed on the GFS is how much more the moisture from the gulf energy is streaming northward compared to before. At hour 78, the heavier precip is very deep into GA compared to the previous run. It won't take much more of a shift to get that into N GA where temps might be cold enough for snow.
 
Winds gusted to 65mph at Cape Hatteras in the Mar 1980 storm

Here is the 12z run of the NASA GEOS - https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/

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iGRXY said:
Still think the western Carolinas and maybe NE GA can continue trending more favorably. Just don’t see this going much better for anyone west of there.
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I’m hoping for at least a 1-2 inch type event for upstate and NE Ga. but I don’t see it as of now. This has eastern Carolinas written all over it.


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The overall system had a higher height field but it was further SW, if the euro had a deeper/sharper trough base and overall longwave axis, probably would have been way better
 
CaryWx said:
How reliable is the SREF at this range? I don't know all that much about it.
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It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.
 
CaryWx said:
How reliable is the SREF at this range? I don't know all that much about it.
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The SREF is terrible. Believe it at your own peril.

Ok, there's my obligatory SREF bash post since it worked last time. Gotta stay with what works.

On another note, we should start to see the Euro get a clue in the next day or so. It took it a while last time, poor thing.
 
iGRXY said:
It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.
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Thanks. So better range for it is 24-36hrs or so?
 
KyloG said:
18z Op GFS v/s 18z EPS

Very impressive to be 84 hours out and literally on top of each other.
View attachment 110475
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The rgem did great with Saturdays event and I will be eagerly watching it from here on in. If I can align with the gfs and the euro then I will start to feel better about this happening
 
iGRXY said:
It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.
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how much further west do you think that this storm will shift
 
Rain Cold said:
The SREF is terrible. Believe it at your own peril.

Ok, there's my obligatory SREF bash post since it worked last time. Gotta stay with what works.

On another note, we should start to see the Euro get a clue in the next day or so. It took it a while last time, poor thing.
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Well I will join you in bashing the SREF as I still have bad memories of February 2015… also I’m keeping my word and no longer bashing the ICON after it started the good trends to a decent snow for me last week… so I got to have a model to bash. That being said if the SREF is on to something here and I end up with a 3”+ snowfall out of this, I will no longer bash it
 
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