LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Keep shifting this west a little every run and a lot of people on this board are in for one.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Good grief dude bombs away 
Cold air source to the northwest and not the northeast. Not a big fan tbh
Flotown
Member
Think we'll keep trending west??
The lower heights / deeper blue is great there. That gives you lower temperatures aloft. Just need improved tilt to get more return flow / more moisture
dynamic cooling needed?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Seems like wet snow would be likely in this event.
Interesting 
Yeah, we won’t have the classic damming high in this setup. The key in terms of temperatures is that there is already a fairly deep trough in the eastern U.S. as the storm wave / trough moves in. If there was an extra day of delay, we most likely would be too warm. But if the base of the wave (500mb vort max) will get under us (track to our south) and be fairly deep / strong like this GFS run, we’ll have enough cold air aloft with temperatures at the surface around freezing after wet-bulbing / cooling with steady precipitation. Those components of the setup are akin to the Jan 1987 storm that hit the upstate - i.e. it had a Great Lakes low and no damming high to the north, but was just cold enough
GEFS looking far more active
We’ve been spoiled with our 25 degree snowstorms this month. It’s different staring a big one like this down the barrel knowing if everything goes right you’re temperatures will still be borderline marginal at best. But as Grit said, it’s been done before.
Yup. Lows definitely closer to the coast/FL. Some over FL.
??
That’s very interesting..
bingcrosbyb
Member
Canadian looks west. Precip into GA/AL. Very close to an overrunning event.
Woah, we’re back in the game!
Trend along the SE coast on GFS Ensemble Mean...last 6 runs
Wow…
Huge uptick on the GEFS for most of the SE
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
A few big dogs on this one. Looking better!
Some monsters on the gefs and several hits
That’s one real nice trend
Holy moly the change.
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Cadi40
Member
Someone needs to throw a ladder down the cliff everyone jumped off of earlier
NCSNOW
Member
Hypsometric
Member
Good trends on the UKMET. Just need one more.
NCSNOW
Member
Ukie was a late bloomer, getting there though
bingcrosbyb
Member
Wow love seeing the ridge out west stack.
Canadian brings a strong trailing wave out of the north down accross the MN/ND border. GFS op run was lacking in that department. I think it was there but weaker and dropping in further east. Probably the key ingredient to watch now as our primary wave has been consistently entering Idaho and into the 4 corners. That part of the forecast is probably pretty close. Trailing NS wave is a wildcard.