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Pattern Januworry

SnowNiner said:
Yeah, long range doesn't look all that fantastic overnight. Western ridge is retrograding faster than I'd like. 6Z GEFS wasn't ever really cold at all in the SE. Hope that turns around today. :confused:


gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png
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We’re not even in a cold pattern now! Like you said we wouldn’t be in
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s better the models show nothing right now because if they did show something big and then once we got closer it went poof y’all would literally melt down and explode .. we’re seeing a good pattern but no storm yet (which could entirely happen) but I just find it hard to believe we escape without nothing to track eventually. Remember where we live the SE. We aren’t going to see a mega snow storm at hour 300 and see the same mega snow storm at hour 70 .. it almost never works like that
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Well then , I’m golden! No snow for me in 15 days on the GFS?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s better the models show nothing right now because if they did show something big and then once we got closer it went poof y’all would literally melt down and explode .. we’re seeing a good pattern but no storm yet (which could entirely happen) but I just find it hard to believe we escape without nothing to track eventually. Remember where we live the SE. We aren’t going to see a mega snow storm at hour 300 and see the same mega snow storm at hour 70 .. it almost never works like that
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I kind of like the models showing medium to longer range winter storms. As silly as it sounds, it tells me that the model thinks the pattern is conducive. Plus, it's fun to see.

When we go days on end seeing what we think looks like an OK pattern without the model ever showing anything, that's a little bit of a red flag.

A model showing a storm is no guarantee of a storm and a model not showing a storm is no guarantee of no storm. But for whatever reason, when the model sees a good pattern, it usually has no trouble spitting out winter storms occasionally.

Just file that away in the Rabbit's Foot and Horseshoe drawer, I guess.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Ah another winter is cancelled kind of day... I’ll be back tomorrow then.
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Please stop posting stuff like this in this thread. First of all, we have a Whamby/Banter thread. And second, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
 
Rain Cold said:
I kind of like the models showing medium to longer range winter storms. As silly as it sounds, it tells me that the model thinks the pattern is conducive. Plus, it's fun to see.

When we go days on end seeing what we think looks like an OK pattern without the model ever showing anything, that's a little bit of a red flag.

A model showing a storm is no guarantee of a storm and a model not showing a storm is no guarantee of no storm. But for whatever reason, when the model sees a good pattern, it usually has no trouble spitting out winter storms occasionally.

Just file that away in the Rabbit's Foot and Horseshoe drawer, I guess.
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Post of the day right here!!
 
The forecast for my location today is another 6-12" of snow with ratios of 20:1 expected, per NWS Grand Rapids. So high ratios is actually a thing, then?

Our rental is one lot off of the lake front here. I could totally live here lol
F6273022-437C-4B6F-B7D5-FEBCEFBA060E.jpeg
 
Poimen said:
The forecast for my location today is another 6-12" of snow with ratios of 20:1 expected, per NWS Grand Rapids. So high ratios is actually a thing, then?

Our rental is one lot off of the lake front here. I could totally live here lol
View attachment 102156
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You keep posting pics from up there, it’s going to piss people off!
 
Rain Cold said:
I kind of like the models showing medium to longer range winter storms. As silly as it sounds, it tells me that the model thinks the pattern is conducive. Plus, it's fun to see.

When we go days on end seeing what we think looks like an OK pattern without the model ever showing anything, that's a little bit of a red flag.

A model showing a storm is no guarantee of a storm and a model not showing a storm is no guarantee of no storm. But for whatever reason, when the model sees a good pattern, it usually has no trouble spitting out winter storms occasionally.

Just file that away in the Rabbit's Foot and Horseshoe drawer, I guess.
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Agreed, if the models aren't putting out fantasy snow, the patterns usually not conducive for it IMO. The models can be wrong and still snow come shorter leads but I feel so much better about a pattern when you get at least some pings here and there; the better the pattern, the more pings. And the ensemble snow mean should be decent. No guarantee of course, just helps identify a better pattern.

Right now the pattern seems to favor Tennessee and the mid-atlantic IMO. That doesn't mean we can't sneak one in at some point. But I'm currently looking for more pings IMBY.
 
meh-decent look on the icon, SS wave placement is decent-good, but the northern stream needs to be faster so it can reinforce cold air before the SS wave moves in D4445F31-2C3C-499E-93EB-641B19643C8A.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
meh-decent look on the icon, SS wave placement is decent-good, but the northern stream needs to be faster so it can reinforce cold air before the SS wave moves in View attachment 102163
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That's actually not a bad image there. I have no idea what the surface response is or what temp profiles look like, though.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
meh-decent look on the icon, SS wave placement is decent-good, but the northern stream needs to be faster so it can reinforce cold air before the SS wave moves in View attachment 102163
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Even with a faster northern stream short wave, the 850 temps need a lot of help. Maybe if that low bombs in the eastern central Gulf of Mexico? But the low is over New Orleans...IDK, I think this one is going to the backstop, way outside...
 
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