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Pattern Januworry

Flotown said:
Anybody with more knowledge can tell me what he is alluding to???wide right ,cutter??
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Sounds like he’s saying the setup could change pretty rapidly and this could easily go OTS or cut. At least that’s my interpretation of it.
 
My opinion is that there will be a storm on the east coast. Question now is all about the track and stream interaction. That part will not come in focus for a few more days. All that being said, this last storm really surprised all of us with that last minute 200 mile NW shift. This has been a winter where the models just can't be trusted.
 
Flotown said:
Anybody with more knowledge can tell me what he is alluding to???wide right ,cutter??
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He mentions that upstream blocking (+PNA west coast ridging) is collapsing in rapid fashion, but I showed earlier in the thread that the GEFS and EPS have trended stronger with the ridging in recent days. Also, it doesn't matter if it is collapsing if the wave is already in the SE, lol, the damage is done. Now on the Atlantic side, it's a fair point that it may be difficult to get a system bombing out and crawling up the coast without strong blocking, but not impossible.

At any rate, every good storm we've ever had has been doubted and questioned / tarred and feathered
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS took a step towards the euro/EPS, which means more ots, nothing to freak out over now but this setup could be prone to that
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Remember though last week when the ensembles were further east and the ops kept sending the primary in TN? We waited on the ops to move, but it was the ensembles that shifted west. Gfs, imo led the way on that storm, and it's fascinating that we've gotten several op runs recently of a bomb. Not saying it's gonna happen, but the consistency of the op is making me pause.
 
A lack of Atlantic blocking isn't the end of the world. you'll need a strong ULL positioned well south to generate the cold air at the surface NW of the track, and strong enough to capture the sfc low. March 09 is a good example. March 93 is another, albeit more extreme example.
 
wow said:
A lack of Atlantic blocking isn't the end of the world. you'll need a strong ULL positioned well south to generate the cold air at the surface NW of the track, and strong enough to capture the sfc low. March 09 is a good example. March 93 is another, albeit more extreme example.
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Yeah and really February 2004 was probably another decent example… there was a high in place, but it was weak and not really in a good location… as was said earlier, the set up doesn’t work often around here, but when it works it’s typically a big dog
 
BullCityWx said:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but BUFKIT only gives RDU 14”
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That BUFKIT output is wrong. From 165 on the sounding supports snow - and the Kuchera map and weathernerds methods appear to line up with the soundings.

As an example, look at hr 174. BUFKIT gives no snow, but the sounding is definitely snow. BTW - look at the possible hazard type lol.

220130/0000Z 174 34024KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.631 17:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.22 85| 0| 15

3E8F1EDF-DC17-4CF8-A887-4597AF669E28.png
 
Hypsometric said:
That BUFKIT output is wrong. From 165 on the sounding supports snow - and the Kuchera map and weathernerds methods appear to line up with the soundings.

As an example, look at hr 174. BUFKIT gives no snow, but the sounding is definitely snow. BTW - look at the possible hazard type lol.

220130/0000Z 174 34024KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.631 17:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.22 85| 0| 15

View attachment 109807
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Now that I hadn’t seen. Wow!
 
brendan123 said:
View attachment 109816
View attachment 109817
Wow, that's a pretty strong signal this far out with a 24 hour 4 inch snow mean over the Delmarva... hits some areas of Virginia mostly skipped over by today's storm. Obviously shifts will happen and likely this will shift west as the ensembles amp up, good to see ensemble support
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I’m going to assume that it’s because one member dropped 40” on that location
 
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