Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
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The surface didn't reflect it but I am very okay with that run at H5. Northern stream tugging down and the southern stream was beginning to respond. I'd roll the dice with that look verbatim
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Snow Flurries in Roanoke! Wasn’t expecting anything but rain so it’s a nice surprise. Good luck to y’all down there!
Pretty amazing. We went from a really big storm a few days ago to its going to be mostly rain to a good snow with temps in the mid 20's.
Cold front through NW Triad as my temp are starting to drop with a light NNW wind. Light rain at the moment but a slow changeover could occur by evening. Still watching the models and their trends. Not sure we'll know what's going to happen until it happens.
Yeah decent divergent jet and 700mb moisture. Its trying really hard to dry in the 850 layer and was a little more + tilt with the trough. Certainly plausible something drier like the euro verifies given how touchy the setup is and how close we are to the boom bust line
Feeling better for here for Saturday afternoon and evening as regards any threat for ZR then as the GFS suite has reversed its prior northward trend of the subsequent shortwave and now is keeping any precip safely away. Regardless, there’s still a possibility of some ZR here Fri night. The good news is that all indications are that it would be light if it occurs. With that in mind, I’m no longer concerned about anything bad (generator not needed) and wouldn’t mind seeing some due to its rarity.
euro has been so inconsistent lately. Amped flat amped flat. Last night it was the one model with higher totals. Now instead of going with consensus it goes low. The run to run changes are crazy for 36 hours
REPS continues to improve, here is 12z run. Only 1 whiff and the rest are very good hits.
Radar looks further north than what models have been showing back in Texas
My mind tells me to not get my hopes up about tonight but it also looks like an outlier for cold filtering in with precip
It's a little disconcerting that the Euro didn't really jump onboard and turn out better than prior runs. I think it's handled this whole event poorly, but it's still a good model, and if I had the choice of it or the Canadian trending better, it would certainly be the Euro.
HRRR is dead set on precip changing over between 6-7 pm tonight with an inch or 2 in spots before tapering off. It's consistent could be consistently wrong but it's consistent
I have to agree, and I am not trying to be negative, but that's how it normally starts. One model does it, and the rest slowly follow like a chain reaction. It also seems like this Winter, we have 12 hours of good trends, then 12 hours of bad.
I agree completely! I talk a lot of smack about the Euro and how it's not near the model it used to be but truth be told, it's still one of the models I really want showing the storm in my back yard.
It's a single operational run of a global model less than 30 hours out. It's like yesterday when the 18z NAM went out to sea and people were cancelling the event.
Forecasting is not using 1 model. It is looking at multiple models over a span of days and objectively seeking consistencies and formulating a guess. 1 Euro op run doesnt change the big picture of this event at all.
That was a downer, I thought for sure it was going to tick west some. It hasn't been great but it's still "the best" model we have.
We've already got a rn/sn mPing east of Mt Airy