Cary_Snow95
Member
You have the means by chance?
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
GEFS individual panels looked really good
WYFF currently doing with 1-2” for the upstate
iGRXY
Member
The triad actually looks like the sweet spot in the GEFS run
MMFS latest run still splits this into two systems -- both affecting the same general area.
It has been quite consistent with this output. I'll fire up another run right now.
It has been quite consistent with this output. I'll fire up another run right now.
snowlover91
Member
I personally wouldn’t put much stock in the GFS thermals. Always go with NAM/RGEM blend. There’s going to be a lot more mixing than the GFS shows, GEFS have a lot more ice. Eastern Nc is likely going to be an ice rink with sleet and some zr.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Is this it? Should still be snowing at 84 right
Snownut
Member
brendan123
Member
Yeah I'm thinking NE/Central NC and SE VA look good right now, but I am concerned about mixing if this system becomes too amped. The RGEM and NAM crept freezing temperatures a little bit too northwest for me to be completely comfortable on the coast, as any system that gets too amped will cut out the coast from any freezing precipitation if it brings too much warmer maritime air ashore. Central NC won't have that issue because they'll probably stay below freezing at the surface for the whole event, but a more amped system = a stronger warm nose =more sleet/zr. Hoping for a stronger cold push at all levels from the surface up to 850.
Still looked good but problem is the mean snowfall map counts everything as frozen and there was more of a pronounced warm nose on the GEFS. Still time to iron those details out but no fan of that showing up this early
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
Nothing wrong with First call maps we are within range. Gives me time for a final call map tomorrow night. I may up to 1” for Charlotte if the euro shows it we shall see!
Let’s remember the GEFS ensemble is apart of the old GFS model they still haven’t made upgrades to the new Gfs ensembles there for im skeptical with anything they put out ..
Downeastnc
Member
That low gonna have to be a lot closer then.....the thermals are different because the evolution is different....I have lived here my entire life and we have never had a ice storm with temps in the mid 20's with a low that far off Hatteras....it comes down to who has the 850 low track right, the GFS has it on the coast which makes sense if the surface low is 250 miles east of Hatteras....the NAM has it well inland but also has the surface low right off HAT....so the GFS is gonna have to correct back well west which is entirely possible but its thermals make total sense given its evolution.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
CMC looks as if it may have done it phasing wise instead of being close and missing like the GFS?
Even if not, there's more interaction between the two waves.
Even if not, there's more interaction between the two waves.
LickWx
Member
Personally I hate snow maps . Post these instead and the forcing maps to get an idea for your own self what will probably happen instead of relying on model precip outputs. Wake county sweating. Heck even meck is on edge .
How bout this
How bout this
Gfs members at 72
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC took a massive jump NW from 12z
iGRXY
Member
More phasing and big jump NW
iGRXY
Member
And so it begins
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs ens members at 78 look good
Here's the UKMet
This is how to get a wonderful snowstorm in central NC even parts of the upstate
Well... the GEFS uses FV3 just like the GFS does.
What do you mean? Isn’t the Gfs the FV3?
Yeah that GEFS Ens Mean map on WBell doesn't look right. It has the 540 thickness line on the bottom side of the sleet, when a general benchmark in this area for snow is 543 (i.e. south of the 540 line). The key is where do we go from here. A sharper northern stream wave that goes more negative tilt would make things warmer....if that doesn't happen, I'd say we are in pretty good shape here at the moment
Snowflowxxl
Member
Here’s the UKMET clown that brick can steal and go post on American
NCSNOW
Member
NickyB beleive your right. I read that the other day, Gefs hasnt been upgraded, op has. Course the op still is in 4th 5th place. So we getting same lemon for our tax dollars
The GFS uses a FV3 core ever since 2019 as opposed to a spectral dynamic core. The GEFS was upgraded to match it in 2020. I figured that was what you were referring to by “old GFS”. All of the other US models (NAM, HAFS, HRRR, etc) are switching to an FV3 core as well.
Sorry I posted the above too quick, that is 10:1 on Ukmet would probably be some higher ratios than that..... goodness like the looks of that
Hypsometric
Member
Quickly looking at the 12km vs 3km NAM @ 60 shows the 3km with a little better cold push at H85 (if that's been mentioned already I apologize).
As long as the 0z euro doesn't go back to a big ice solution againYeah that GEFS Ens Mean map on WBell doesn't look right. It has the 540 thickness line on the bottom side of the sleet, when a general benchmark in this area for snow is 543 (i.e. south of the 540 line). The key is where do we go from here. A sharper northern stream wave that goes more negative tilt would make things warmer....if that doesn't happen, I'd say we are in pretty good shape here at the moment
The globals have a similar look with doing it mostly with the northern stream wave sharpening a bit and sliding west to east (UKMet is flattest with the wave it looks like and the most suppressed). The NAM/RDPS are incorporating the southern stream wave more
snowlover91
Member
GFS is forming the 850 low either over ENC or to the Nw, it’s so diffuse it’s hard to tell but the WAA would be an issue anywhere along and SE of where the 850 low is forming. The GFS is likely too far offshore with its surface reflection and it looks like we are starting the typical nw ticks we see at this range. Just don’t think this is a setup that favors snow in ENC but instead favors ice.
