This is only 90 hours away just starting…. This thing sneaked up on us quickly 
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
If we delay that high coming down and it doesn't press with the front to our south, then.......it won't end well again.
Lights out SC/ENC 
Storm5
Member
Just need to slow down a little . If history repeats the NW jog is coming for sure . I'll take a full phased bomb that rides east of the apps
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Z
Zander98al
Guest
When does this thing get sampled over land? Or will that even matter with this setup? Seemed like temperatures were colder from the last setup when it got sampled on land.
Massive arctic HP with major cold/dry air, even if it trends west with our slp I think the implications will be a massive ice storm even I-95 eastward. I'm begging for more suppression but planning for the worst, been a long time since we've had one like this imho
Cary_Snow95
Member
Tomorrow around 00z-12z
Icon looks to be going for a wave #2 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Agreed. From just a significant winter storm standpoint, the goal posts seem large.
Crazy that this artic high and it’s associated CAD looks far colder then the grandpa and grandma CAD we just had yesterday
Cary_Snow95
Member
Can’t recall seeing 23 with heavy precip all the way over to 95 anytime recently. Crazy honestly
We’re gonna need it as of right now IMHO if the front does speed up. Got to fire up the CAA generator on the north side of a decent 850mb low.
- Joined
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
ICON looks very 1-3-2002 with that snow footprint
I'd honestly like to believe that, but for whatever reason, models love to show these ridiculous winter storms with temps in the low 20s to make everybody say, man I can't remember the last time it snowed at 5 degrees around here, and then they inevitably trend toward a normal winter event where we're watching CC radar mode.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a large jump NW from 06Z
Cary_Snow95
Member
And the 1% chance is what bounces in your mind and keeps you anxiously coming back. Anywho 12z GFS is running
If this thing doesn’t ram into ENC like the last system but trends NW/amped enough, sfc temps will probably be in the 20s, instead it’ll just be lights out
models showed that last week for yesterdays event. The pouring rain yesterday afternoon said that didn't occur.
It's an eagle in golf. Ok, the wind is helping, I just know I can hit 250 to carry the water, one bounce over the bunker on the green in two. Give the the 3 wood, Romes! 11 shots later, we're down to our last ball.
The arctic press seems legit. Plus, we'll have a cold air feed working over the snowpack up north. That should help. But we have to avoid an early phase. That's the ballgame.
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Snownut
Member
So this is looking like major ice South and Pretty decent snow North in SC
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If the GFS comes in flat/strung out through 12z tomorrow, I'll feel a little better. I honestly don't care what the Euro shows right now. It has been a hot mess lately. I don't know what they did to it over there but they need to downgrade it so it gets better again.
Cary_Snow95
Member
iGRXY
Member
Definitely trending better
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Very difficult to say right now. Probably
Going to be a close call just like a lot of systems in the Carolinas
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This setup is susceptible to a NW trend because the western Atlantic ridge nosing in is part of the setup, the northern stream energy may move out to fast in southeast Canada like yesterday’s setup and the storm might feel the lack of confluence and might hook closer to the coast, and the digging might happen to far west, lots of ways this could trend NW, we need to keep a positive tilt wave.
For a Columbia/Fayetteville special we need a positively tilted wave axis propagating east with a lack of southern stream and otherwise overrunning all by itself, or east least some weak neutral tilt at the very end stages to keep any WAA out of here
Basically, I really like the 85 corridor and NW on this setup right now
For a Columbia/Fayetteville special we need a positively tilted wave axis propagating east with a lack of southern stream and otherwise overrunning all by itself, or east least some weak neutral tilt at the very end stages to keep any WAA out of here
Basically, I really like the 85 corridor and NW on this setup right now
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Snowing here by 18z Thursday on the GFS
GFS out to 90 isn't very interesting looking for Friday, but may get more interesting down the road a bit
50/50 high doing work. Need that big north Atlantic block to move west.
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Improved
I was getting a little concerned here about ZR until yesterday and wanted either the typical NW (warming) shift to make it all plain rain or the best case, a rare SE shift to make it mainly sleet and snow. I’m now feeling a good bit relieved as the typical NW shift is happening as the models are trending stronger with the Atlantic ridge. Kudos to @KyloG for showing this quite well in animation. Still watching and not yet totally dismissing the possibility but no longer that worried as the typical NW/warming shift as well as climo is on my side.
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Ok ok I know I said I didn't want a phase but we need a little interaction here. That wave spacing is getting concerning as well.
GFS trends
It was really easy when it was this
Now it's this
Now it's this
Willing to bet the GFS is to progressive with the northern stream which is its usual bias anyways