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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Ollie Williams said:
View attachment 107263Really not a great trend
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Yep you can't lose the polar wave if you want the first system to work unless you pull the wave to its SW out and start interacting but then you open the bag of ptype concerns creeping NW. This setup was clean the other day a strong polar wave digging deep and giving us a nice Miller A. Now it's a convoluted caveat driven mess
 
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
there’s honestly just many reasons to be skeptical about this storm with certain things
and we’re seeing why, we saw the perfect runs a couple days ago so didn’t have a great idea on what could go wrong, now we’ve seen both ways
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I feel like even the bad evolving models have printed a winter storm most of the time .. I feel like that should already be reeled in at this point now we just figure out who sleets and who snows
 
The trailing wave is what screws everything up. It pushes down on the flow and stretches the main vort back to the sw. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the window to trend back to a vort tucked underneath the main Ns vort is diminishing. We’re only 60-72 hours from the energy in the southwest elongating
 
Still think models are having a hard time latching onto which piece of energy. Odds are things get more amped and you get much more precip back to the west. Just depends on what the upper levels look like because cold at the surface looks legit.
 
Stormsfury said:
The run to run consistently is like trying to gauge if you're about to fart or shart...and you have 30 seconds to decide to hightail it to the bathroom...

The GFS op and basically guidance are having issues keying in on energy just flying around in the atmosphere.
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That's certainly an interesting way to describe it. I'm worried the cold air mass simply won't verify as deep which means the whole thing moves NW.
 
Unless we pull a crazy NW tend (which certainly is possible, we saw what happened with yesterday’s storm), I think Central & NE North Carolina along with SE Virginia are sitting in the sweet spot right now. Weak, late blooming Miller A’s/overunning events tend to give us our biggest storms.
 
KyloG said:
This looks good to me at day 4...?‍♂️

Southern energy is further east past few runs.

View attachment 107282
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This is not far off from what the majority of interior SE want to see. Good timing/tilt it would seem.... too bad the UKMET was one of the last models to catch up with the last event...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
there’s honestly just many reasons to be skeptical about this storm with certain things
and we’re seeing why, we saw the perfect runs a couple days ago so didn’t have a great idea on what could go wrong, now we’ve seen both ways
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No changes from me from my post a few days ago. Moisture is the problem. I hope someone way down east can score tho.
 
brendan123 said:
Unless we pull a crazy NW tend (which certainly is possible, we saw what happened with yesterday’s storm), I think Central & NE North Carolina along with SE Virginia are sitting in the sweet spot right now. Weak, late blooming Miller A’s/overunning events tend to give us our biggest storms.
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Sitting in the sweet spot at day 4 is the kiss of death. Every single time.
 
iGRXY said:
Sitting in the sweet spot at day 4 is the kiss of death. Every single time.
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Yeah, I meant that seeing the GFS/ICON/UKMET set up the main axis of snow along the outer banks is good news for those areas. It is somewhat concerning though to see the Canadian, Euro, and the ensembles setting up the snow over Central NC and Southeast Va though. Doesn’t leave much margin for error.
 
GaWx said:
Here’s the mean from the 12Z GEFS for wave #2: will it do the typical NW shift from here? We’ll see. If it didn’t, this would be near the ideal track for coastal SE snow.

View attachment 107273

View attachment 107275
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Further to the above, here’s the track of the individual members. I couldn’t have drawn a better member map for a typical surface low track for a rare SE coastal winter storm. But alas, we know that there’s a bias that means a NW shift is more likely than not:

65F7639C-9C21-4A1A-BF02-30418D50DF14.pngFAA229DC-D21E-41EB-9365-E7A416B96F9D.pngA13C9502-2FC6-49D7-9F44-F56D99CFB25D.png
 
The WPC noted in their last discussion that they are basically refraining from "chasing waves" in this pattern that would knock their forecast all around. They're trying to stick to continuity.. so wouldn't be surprised to see their products potentailly not matching up with the models at times for our back yards. FWIW.

Here is their current Day 4:

9khwbg_conus.gif
 
DopplerWx said:
Brad seems more interested in the second wave for our chances in clt.
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I believe that’s correct, local PRO Mets are thinking the same way and I don’t blame them, past events have done the same and they are always too light on totals until the event actually starts and they play the caught up game like they did with this past system.
 
SD said:
Yep you can't lose the polar wave if you want the first system to work unless you pull the wave to its SW out and start interacting but then you open the bag of ptype concerns creeping NW. This setup was clean the other day a strong polar wave digging deep and giving us a nice Miller A. Now it's a convoluted caveat driven mess
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Kind of funny, the CMC pulls off this move back to back. At least we have a central and eastern trough with chances, and aren't talking SE ridges, MJO Phase 5, and bathtub sloshing ?‍♂️

crTFoX9.gif
 
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