Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[GeorgiaGirl]

Do later frames of the 12Z GEFS show some wintry members for the SE from the 2nd wave?

I'm not going to try to pick through to see, but it did feel like to me while I was observing the GEFS that it either had the first system or the second system.

Sort of makes me feel that this will end up being a Sunday system if it happens.

ETA: 6 out of 20 had the second system.

 

[Broken024]

Do later frames of the 12Z GEFS show some wintry members for the SE from the 2nd wave?

Yea. Pretty much every ensemble does "something" for southeast with either first or second wave.
Hour 132:

Hour 168:

 

[Bham 99]

Also since the snow map doesn’t show it, the 12Z CMC has for the GA/SC coasts close to 1” liquid equivalent of a mix of ZR and IP (likely mainly ZR that transitions to mainly IP as the 850s drop) to maybe some snow near the end. That would be the worst here in 100 years almost to the exact day amazingly enough. The fact that various models/runs/ensemble members keep showing this sort of thing is a legit concern for me as a power outage from that would be very difficult to handle considering the cold during and after and having a bro to take care of. I wonder if I should consider buying a generator just in case before any potential later mad rush. I could always return it quickly it if I end up not needing it.

I’ll hope for either the common northwest trend that would make it liquid or a rare slightly southeast trend that would make it mainly sleet and snow.

I would say it's good to have a generator, You would definitely use it during hurricanes...

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 12z Euro looks about the same as the past two runs. The opposite of the GFS/ICON.

Edit: Actually a worse trend, but still not as bad as the GFS.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 12z Euro looks about the same as the past two runs. The opposite of the GFS/ICON.

Edit: Actually a worse trend, but still not as bad as the GFS.

Much worse this run.

 

[accu35]

So either way there’s a storm potential sometime this weekend. My Friday forecast shows snow/rain mix

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah euro still moves it out but trended towards hanging it back more. Not ideal. GFS has been on fire lately and it looks to score again

 

[accu35]

Wait I’m on hour 102, how are y’all ahead?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Euro seems as if it's going to try to bury the energy in the SW?

Maybe I shouldn't have talked...perhaps that was the right solution.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Wait I’m on hour 102, how are y’all ahead?

That's where the problem occurs. Energy is digging into the southwest

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looks like euro likes the 2nd piece of energy better.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Man what a terrible trend that completely screws that storm. GFS folded at 18z yesterday only to bring it back 6 hours later. Sometimes the models troll us so well

 

[KyloG]

Well…

 

[CaryWx]

Lets see how the ensembles handle it

 

[deltadog03]

I think swing and miss for Thur/FRI.....but more energy coming down the plains...lets see if it digs all of this out. 1040mb High up north so thats good.

 

[Rain Cold]

In first with "Euro bias hangs energy back in the SW".

 

[KyloG]

Should have noted…Op euro probably a blessing. Last thing we want is some big bomb at day 5-6.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Should have noted…Op euro probably a blessing. Last thing we want is some big bomb at day 5-6.

But the trend that screws the whole run is only 78/84 hours out

 

[KyloG]

But the trend that screws the whole run is only 78/84 hours out

We have seen the NS energy, at this range, dig further SW time and time again.

This isn’t that far away but there’s a reason we don’t get a lot of snow…Murphys Law.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Sigh