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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Snowflowxxl said:
The best long range model was the GFS. I think the 3K NAM did the best with temps here, HRRR and RAP were too cold.
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In terms of Storm track, the GFS did horrible. It repeatedly pushed the ULL up into TN and KY.. I don’t give it too much of hit on that because all the models did poor with it… the ULL ended up going along I-20 and then I-85. As for the surface low, the GFS repeatedly developed the new low well too west, even inside the CAD. Finally the GFS eroded the CAD way too much, but we all know that’s a bias of the globals. Track wise, it feels like the Euro and UK did the best
 
Chazwin said:
In terms of Storm track, the GFS did horrible. It repeatedly pushed the ULL up into TN and KY.. I don’t give it too much of hit on that because all the models did poor with it… the ULL ended up going along I-20 and then I-85. As for the surface low, the GFS repeatedly developed the new low well too west, even inside the CAD. Finally the GFS eroded the CAD way too much, but we all know that’s a bias of the globals. Track wise, it feels like the Euro and UK did the best
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The UK was far too south until 48 hours
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The wind is really howling outside. Also it’s still 34 outside, I never got under 32 the whole event ?
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It started getting windy when the winds shifted northwest away from the wedge. We are getting all of Chattanooga’s warm air. I dropped to 31.6 around 6pm, then all the way up to 34 after the wind shift. 33.4 now, and has been for hours.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Did anyone actually get a massive ice storm out of this or were the models over doing that like usual?
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Sleet saved me... There was some ice in the trees but not as much as there would have been without sleet. It was enough sleep for probably half an inch
 
For my area, the Euro nailed this system and didn't budge for 4 days. Then the HRRR followed it as soon as it got in range and was just as steady in the solution. They both had me at 4-6 inches of snow with other wintry mix getting in. It verified at the low end of their guidance.

All while the GSF kept showing a storm jogging well nw of me. It shifted to the euro as the system approached and it handled upstate sc awful too.

Long live The King!

(I believe the Gfs spotted the signal of southern snow 1st though)
 
Looks like that last band that came through put down over 1/2” of snow on top of the 3.75” of sleet/snow from earlier. Made everything look beautiful and covered every blade of grass. It’s definitely going to take a while to melt with around 2.5” of sleet sandwiched in.
 
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nice hit for the board in general.

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Prolly not very often people in these parts, getting a pool put in, sees it in this condition. ? I have a feeling that nothing progresses for a few weeks at least...?
Oh well...bring on the ❄️ and COLD!
 

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