Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Snowfan]

I wonder if someone actually gets a blizzard warning with this storm?


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I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[WeatherNC]

Blizzard requires wind criteria not visibility and rates. North of 35mph sustained with snow.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice thoughts on the NAM from ILMRoss on American.

I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy.

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.

 

[NCSNOW]

Wow, is that a 3 contour closed ULL near Memphis at hour 84 on the NAM?

View attachment 104759

This is the one you want to track as it determines the temp profiles. Course the surface is gonna get all the energy at somepoint, become primary. The time and location of the handoff is the million dollar question we are trying to answer. Then the rest can be set in stone: ptypes, transition lines, accums etc

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Ice storm.

I know SLP location is pivotal, as well as the HP placement and strength. Having said that, what would lend itself to a solution like the Ukie runs from yesterday?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[tucker]

This is the part where I lose hope, but then I'll get pulled back in then I'll lose hope again...

The winter storm cycle.

 

[iGRXY]

ICON roughly the same thru 69 with our LP placement. But it actually shows the tongue or precip out ahead of the main system as we expected.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice thoughts on the NAM from ILMRoss on American.

I’ve said this many times but the HRRR under 36/even the RAP has done a good job on winter storms the last 2 years, HRRR seemingly sees column crashing better, for ex that SC upstate snow last February that the nam dropped the ball on, but the HRRR showed snow with associated with column crashing/dynamic cooling

 

[Cary_Snow95]

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Oh boy that TPV trend

 

[njbarrineau]

I wonder if someone actually gets a blizzard warning with this storm?


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I think we will have some Good gusts but I highly doubt we would have sustained winds for that long.


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[KyloG]

ICON is impressive so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at the 50/50 low trend !! Wow, and the associated 540 line moving more south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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Lobe digging in. No wonder the Icon improved.

 

[Downeastnc]

Nice thoughts on the NAM from ILMRoss on American.

I noticed several 18Z Euro ens members had a west to east snow orientation over the Carolinas....so at least some members have a flatter less amped solution....there is still hope I guess this trends back....

 

[NCSNOW]

The press is impressive

 

[iGRXY]

ICON slow loading but I think we’re going to get an even better run. LP continues to fix SE and the 50/50 is trending stronger and slower. High pressure is also being forced further south into NE

 

[DopplerWx]

Uh…guys…

 

[Cary_Snow95]

ICON SLP also down near the pan handle

 

[Meteorologist1999]

ICON slow loading but I think we’re going to get an even better run. LP continues to fix SE and the 50/50 is trending stronger and slower. High pressure is also being forced further south into NE

Also models are starting to pick up on the meso high in Virginia.