Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[JLL1973]

Looks like mor snow developing just west of me. Deformation band maybe?

 

[Stormlover]

Haha no joke


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Yeah, they really went out on the limb with that one, lol

 

[DopplerWx]

Deform band still looks great for clt metro. Assuming we switch over it should be a fun morning.

 

[Flotown]

Deck and cars got a nice coating of sleet already. Didn’t see any snow yet

Snow here in central

 

[RBR71]

Deform band on the 23z hrrr starting to look more anemic east of the mountains compared to earlier runs.

Yeah I was worried about that, they rarely roll east and if they do it's drying up as the deepening slp pulls rapidly away

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Deform band on the 23z hrrr starting to look more anemic east of the mountains compared to earlier runs.

Noticed that, too. As others have noted, the western edge almost always moves out quicker than originally modeled. Also, the change over to snow is almost always slower than modeled. For these reasons alone, expectations should be held in check here.

 

[superjames1992]

Yeah I was worried about that, they rarely roll east and if they do it's drying up as the deepening slp pulls rapidly away

Yes, I’m definitely concerned that if it actually does set up west of here like depicted that it’ll stall and/or die out as it moves east, like February 2014 did. I don’t have hope for more than white rain.

 

[HSVweather]

View attachment 101294Melting flakes??

Think so

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Great idea… but we all know napping is out of the question ?

True. I rarely fall asleep before 2am as it is. My sleep schedule is a mess. Working from home doesn't help

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks Convective, wouldn’t shock me if there some lightning in this over the next few hours

 

[StormStalker]

Sleeting hard now. Should be getting ready to hopefully switch to snow.

 

[Parker]

23z picked up on a dry slot to areas west of BHM and it really lowered the snow total, luckily it did not affect the metro, but that is something I would like to see go away. It was a rather significant decrease.

I HATE a dry slot.

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

23z picked up on a dry slot to areas west of BHM and it really lowered the snow total, luckily it did not affect the metro, but that is something I would like to see go away. It was a rather significant decrease.

I HATE a dry slot.

 

[ChattaVOL]

Didn’t expect that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr actually right with timing of the band and not to slow ? That’s a first

 

[DadOfJax]

Think so

If so, this is going to be a very fast changeover when it occurs….possibly seeing snow in the upper 30’s to start off.

 

[olhausen]

sleeting since around 5 and finally switched to snow over last 30 minutes here.

 

[Storm5]

Bhm metro dependent on that skinny ass band in eastern miss


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[Arcc]

Bhm metro dependent on that skinny ass band in eastern miss


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It should thicken as the cyclone matures.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gonna be some big boy totals along the TN/NC border. Look at all those convective bands ?

 

[Catfish556]

Got sleet on the trucks and trashcans here in Florence. We'll see what comes out of this heavy band that's about to get here.

 

[Parker]

If it snows at the rate I'm raining right now then it will be heavy snow. Also lots of water around the house, if temps get to 29 then we will have bridge icing issues in the morning.

 

[weatherguy]

Started sleeting heavy here in Franklin county AL, about 30 min ago.

 

[crecre9]

I hope it’s before midnight

Yeah, short term modeling was showing a changeover in Huntsville before 2100, so a 0000 changeover would be no bueno.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Gonna be some big boy totals along the TN/NC border. Look at all those convective bands ?

Doubt I'm getting a minute of sleep tonight lol.

Hoping for 6! Excited if its more.

 

[lusting4Adusting]

this bad boy is tilting

 

[shoalswxlady]

It snowing!

 

[LukeBarrette]

That backside band is beefing now

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Using the HRRR and RAP soundings, we don't fully transition to snow here until around 8 am. After that, we might get a two-hour period of good rates while the lift is maximized, with maybe an hour or so of leftovers thereafter.

 

[StormStalker]

All snow/sleet now. Coming down at a good clip too.

 

[Parker]

I will tell y'all this, I always soak up the events down here in the deep south. We just do not get a lot of chances and I don't care if I am doing all of this for a slushy accumulation, this is what makes it so much fun. Good luck to everyone with this event.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Hopefully this shows up right.

 

[Stormlover]

Yeah, short term modeling was showing a changeover in Huntsville before 2100, so a 0000 changeover would be no bueno.

HUN just posed an update and 8-9pm changeover the for I65 corridor, 10-11 in far ne ala. No change.

 

[SD]

Pretty close to really taking off, cloud tops are cooling a bit in MS

 

[HSVweather]

Is this the changeover line?

 

[StormStalker]

Ripping fatties now!

 

[Parker]

Solid 00z HRRR run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr continues to amplify ?

 

[Philconnors]

I will tell y'all this, I always soak up the events down here in the deep south. We just do not get a lot of chances and I don't care if I am doing all of this for a slushy accumulation, this is what makes it so much fun. Good luck to everyone with this event.

Absolutely buddy!! I’m in bluff park - temp just hit 43. Wind is telling me there is a lot of mixing going on which is indicative of dynamic cooling. We need precip to sock in to max out cooling and I think it’ll be one of those deals where you changeover really quick especially since we have no warming from daylight Anymore


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