ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think many including myself will like the new Euro
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’ll take it 
Seeing the euro jump on is encouraging
Heres the HREF ensemble
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
There’s a lot of agreement in a deformation band forming. Someone may see a surprise. I don’t like how the Canadian models aren’t showing it though
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DadOfJax
Member
Travel conditions would be more from wet roads/bridges freezing from the melting. I guess the best way to explain it is that if rates are heavy enough to accumulate, you would have slow melting underneath, while the elevated accumulation helps insulate the heat to the surface. It would have to be fast rates, and a good cold push afterwards, but we have seen this a few times in the past. The travel issues are temporary…..almost as temporary as the accumulated snow…lol, but fun nonetheless!
Flotown
Member
It was
That gonna move through the shoals10 to 11 tonight, a two inch band in one hour from huntsville to birmingham
What's your temp now?Like to see your observations being that you are just west of me!
Storm5
Member
33/40 getting aggressive
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Wow they sure are. We shall see. I am little worried about temps. Sitting at 52 degrees right now.33/40 getting aggressive
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DadOfJax
Member
Obs out west is going to tell the story. So many times I remember these things digging further south and getting too amped early on and destroying MS and northwest AL and then cutting way too soon. That’s not happening at the moment, so hopefully that bodes well for us to the East. Really want to see those temps push south and precip to start building in MS. If the snow reports start in west AL, those of us East of 65 should be sitting pretty.
17z hrrr coming in even better for east Mississippi and most of north/central Alabama.
17z hrr
I agree with this. Need to see those to the west of us overperform this evening.
I wish we had some live reports from extreme eastern arkansas. Seems to be winding down for them based off the hrrr.
Honestly as fun as looking at the models are, I would take whatever the models are showing and cut the totals by 3/4 across AL except for the northern parts and the NE ridges. If you get more be surprised.
This is one hell of a system I gotta say
Yeah it’ll be fun to see the observations actually come thru for y’all out west so we can gage how things will probably go up our way
Flotown
Member
Show us out west please
Storm5
Member
Those HRRr totals for west Tennessee aren't going to verify the heaviest precipitation is currently over those locations and pushing east
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whizrtr
Member
The wind gusts are nasty as well as the STP parameters in SE NC
sigwx
Member
I like Jill she is very good at her job...
HSVweather
Member
Unfortunately, AL is dealing with the same soil temperatures as those in NC. I would be shocked if anyone got 4 inches.
Philconnors
Member
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Timing will help AL with the snow falling at night.
True, but I don't think the time of day is as big of a factor in January with a low sun angle. Regardless, those soil temperatures are going to be a major probibitor.
NoSnowATL
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
Same thing for people in va and Nc, but you gotta remember how warm its been. Going to be tough to overcome.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Amazing how quickly the roads can get that cold considering they were near 60 just 12 hours ago.
Yep, think the biggest amounts outside of VA will maybe even close to 2 inches at the very best, 6:1-8:1 ratios don’t help at all either
One thing will help soil temps is these winds going 15-20 mph help cooling the ground quicker.
Stormlover
Member
SREF mean is now over 3 1/2 inches for Huntsville, with about 7 members over 5 inches
Soil temps are overrated, besides grass and leaves cool down much faster than the soil. The big issue here is with this type of “comma” head band is that the models often miss how quickly it moves through.
RollTide18
Member
Way down here in south Alabama, hoping to see some flurries, often flurries can fly further south than modeled, we’ll see.
ChattaVOL
Member
Some West TN reports
There we go. If my yard looks like that then I’ll be tickled
DadOfJax
Member
Energy transfer is usually brutal, but our digging is a little further East this time. I think north GA deals with the transfer this time.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Update from Greg Fishel.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Well, I still think we'll see snowflakes in the Triangle during the day tomorrow, but I'm afraid the chance of seeing accumulating snow is dwindling. The radiosonde (weather balloon) data that came in this morning had an impact on both the US and European models, in that the track of the developing low pressure area in Georgia has shifted ever so slightly to the north and west. That means a warmer environment when the most intense upward motion occurs, which in turn implies rain. Much colder air will begin to pour in on strong northerly winds after 7am, but in order to get accumulating snow, we need strong vertical motion and cold air simultaneously, and that may very well turn out to be the missing tandem for snow lovers.
Now, there have been times where we see one anomalous set of model runs shift away from the original solution, only to return to that original solution 12 hours later. So, I will be plotting maps hourly, starting this evening, to make sure this system is "behaving" itself! Even with this shift, my good friends in Roxboro stand the best chance of seeing a Winter Wonderland tomorrow am.
Many of asked me over the years as to why the best chance of snow always appears to be northwest of Raleigh. Well, it's not quite this simple, but this time of year, the ocean water temperatures are usually warmer than the air inland. That warm ocean water warms the air above it, and anytime there is any component of the wind coming from the east, that milder ocean air begins to have an impact. The closer you are to the coast, the greater the impact, and the farther away, the lesser the impact. Roxboro just happens on average to be just far enough away from the coast to escape that warming influence.
A note to snow lovers: Never, ever, give up!!! I've always tried to shoot straight with you. I try to forecast what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. And sometimes, that's very challenging! More later!
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Well, I still think we'll see snowflakes in the Triangle during the day tomorrow, but I'm afraid the chance of seeing accumulating snow is dwindling. The radiosonde (weather balloon) data that came in this morning had an impact on both the US and European models, in that the track of the developing low pressure area in Georgia has shifted ever so slightly to the north and west. That means a warmer environment when the most intense upward motion occurs, which in turn implies rain. Much colder air will begin to pour in on strong northerly winds after 7am, but in order to get accumulating snow, we need strong vertical motion and cold air simultaneously, and that may very well turn out to be the missing tandem for snow lovers.
Now, there have been times where we see one anomalous set of model runs shift away from the original solution, only to return to that original solution 12 hours later. So, I will be plotting maps hourly, starting this evening, to make sure this system is "behaving" itself! Even with this shift, my good friends in Roxboro stand the best chance of seeing a Winter Wonderland tomorrow am.
Many of asked me over the years as to why the best chance of snow always appears to be northwest of Raleigh. Well, it's not quite this simple, but this time of year, the ocean water temperatures are usually warmer than the air inland. That warm ocean water warms the air above it, and anytime there is any component of the wind coming from the east, that milder ocean air begins to have an impact. The closer you are to the coast, the greater the impact, and the farther away, the lesser the impact. Roxboro just happens on average to be just far enough away from the coast to escape that warming influence.
A note to snow lovers: Never, ever, give up!!! I've always tried to shoot straight with you. I try to forecast what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. And sometimes, that's very challenging! More later!
I am interested to see this system start amping up in the next few hours. It should start up soon. I hope lol. 