Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Parker]

Everybody always gets nervous before showtime. We are good

 

[Parker]

I am interested to see this system start amping up in the next few hours. It should start up soon. I hope lol. View attachment 101182

Good looking radar to me

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ULL slightly more south this HRRR run so far

 

[SD]

Some West TN reportsView attachment 101180

But MEG reported 79 yesterday how can snow stick in that area?

 

[EmersonGA]

And their soil temperatures weren’t much different than the rest of the southeast.

 

[DadOfJax]

Watching the webcams in Oxford, MS for an idea on changeover. Good cams from Ole Miss…

Quad Live Cam | Ole Miss

livecam.olemiss.edu

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

And their soil temperatures weren’t much different than the rest of the southeast.

And its snowing there in the middle of the day ! So it should be even easier for the snow to stick further east tonight.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR looks slightly less amped/a tick south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

But MEG reported 79 yesterday how can snow stick in that area?

Glad we buried that bad science in under 72 hours. I stand by ground temps being the least important thing when forecasting winter weather.

 

[HSVweather]

Watching the webcams in Oxford, MS for an idea on changeover. Good cams from Ole Miss…

Quad Live Cam | Ole Miss

livecam.olemiss.edu

The I40 west of River has an accident on it here, TDOT cams

Smartway

smartway.tn.gov

 

[MSnowAtl]

ULL slightly more south this HRRR run so far View attachment 101183

Let's see where this goes!!

 

[SD]

Glad we buried that bad science in under 72 hours. I stand by ground temps being the least important thing when forecasting winter weather.

I mean there will obviously be some melting if the ground is warm but there's more to it

 

[olhausen]

Nashville has upped the earlier total of 1 inch to 1-2 inches across much of the state.

 

[Downeastnc]

HRRR looks slightly less amped/a tick south

Those of us in central and eastern NC gotta hope it trends back closer to what we saw yesterday afternoon if we want to see more than some token flakes at the end....less amped and the low tracking ILM to Lookout would be nice to see this run....

 

[Psalm 148:8]

ULL slightly more south this HRRR run so far View attachment 101183

Dig you pig!!??. Someone had to say it! Hoping a south trend helps me get in the game even if just a few flurries… so what does this new hrrr actually mean? Draw in more cold air? Warm air? Precip placement?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Those of us in central and eastern NC gotta hope it trends back closer to what we saw yesterday afternoon if we want to see more than some token flakes at the end....less amped and the low tracking ILM to Lookout would be nice to see this run....

I’m liking where I’m sitting right now with the deformation band .. looks absolutely gorgeous on the HRRR

 

[Arcc]

Dig you pig!!??. Someone had to say it! Hoping a south trend helps me get in the game even if just a few flurries… so what does this new hrrr actually mean? Draw in more cold air? Warm air? Precip placement?

Not much difference for Us in AL, GA.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I mean there will obviously be some melting if the ground is warm but there's more to it

Agreed, however It doesn’t take long to cool the soil to a depth that supports snow/ice sitting on top of it.

 

[Parker]

Latest HRRR. Like ARCC said, not much change. Hope it trends stronger as we get closer m. It did for areas to the NW

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dig you pig!!??. Someone had to say it! Hoping a south trend helps me get in the game even if just a few flurries… so what does this new hrrr actually mean? Draw in more cold air? Warm air? Precip placement?

Basically what arc said, not much of a change, makes a bigger impact east of the mountains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hard not to get excited when the HRRR has been extremely consistent on this burst of snow under the cold pocket aloft for several runs in a row

 

[Parker]

Should be some fatties

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Hard not to get excited when the HRRR has been extremely consistent on this burst of snow under the cold pocket aloft for several runs in a row View attachment 101188View attachment 101189View attachment 101187View attachment 101186

Can you show when it’s over wake? .. this will be more than your average flurries .. this will look like a snow squall type of feel

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Not much difference for Us in AL, GA.

Well poo… cause I think me and you are about on the same exact latitude line

 

[DopplerWx]

Hard not to get excited when the HRRR has been extremely consistent on this burst of snow under the cold pocket aloft for several runs in a row View attachment 101188View attachment 101189View attachment 101187View attachment 101186

Yea I don’t feel completely hopeless rn. If we get under that band as it pivots and switch to all snow we could get a nice dusting for sure.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Agreed, however It doesn’t take long to cool the soil to a depth that supports snow/ice sitting on top of it.

IDK. There's just something special when every flake that falls sticks to frozen ground. It's the difference between some slush on the car tops and mulch and snow-covered roads in light events.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wish they had kuchera on wxbell for the hrrr but

Can you show when it’s over wake? .. this will be more than your average flurries .. this will look like a snow squall type of feel

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Whoops… first time posting a pic.. but not something you see everyday

 

[Chazwin]

Hard not to get excited when the HRRR has been extremely consistent on this burst of snow under the cold pocket aloft for several runs in a row View attachment 101188View attachment 101189View attachment 101187View attachment 101186

Absolutely, I don’t expect accumulation here, but a it will be nice to see a decent burst of snow falling in the daytime

 

[BullCityWx]

I *think* for the immediate(ish) triangle area:

I think RAH has the right idea of at least flakes north of 64. I think any accumulation is N&W of of say an area bounded by NC Highway 86 in Orange County on the west side, roughly north of 85 in Durham County and then maybe north of NC Highway 98 in Wake County bounded by either Highway 1 or 401 on the eastern end. I actually think the biggest area of question is bounded by 540 to the south and 98 to the north in Wake. They could do better than I anticipate.

I also think tomorrow is going to be much like a summer thunderstorm day. We dont know who yet but someone is gonna end up under a cell of heavy snow around the changeover time.

 

[superjames1992]

And their soil temperatures weren’t much different than the rest of the southeast.

It’s an elevated bridge which cools very quickly given there is cold air both on top of and underneath the bridge. You better believe the fact that it was 75 yesterday will keep roadways relatively more clear than they would be if it was 25 yesterday, though. That’s not saying it can’t stick, I’m just saying it will be harder and it will melt quicker. The NWS talks about this in their forecast discussions.

 

[ghost1]

Moderate snow… Tunica MS… 29F

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wish they had kuchera on wxbell for the hrrr butView attachment 101193View attachment 101194

Here you go

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Soil temps? These are going to be roof collapsing pancakes falling out of the sky, no need to worry!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So the HRRR has a sting jet with the deformation band,

 

[HSVweather]

Central AL forecasted road temperatures at 7am tomorrow from fox6

 

[TheBatman]

Looking better on that backside precipitation in Mississippi.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[JLL1973]

It was


37


That gonna move through the shoals


What's your temp now?Like to see your observations being that you are just west of me!