Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Myfrotho704_]

But how can downsloping just wipe out Such a dynamic system?

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Need a ULL track further south that can filter in cold air better, it looks to track right over us, which filters in cold air further east, and the flow behind it causes downsloping and increased temps near the mountains/upstate and foothills/parts of the Piedmont

 

[accu35]

South shift on the Nam this run

 

[Met1985]

Can someone explain why exactly the Snow line not further west into upstate sc? I know it looks like it keeps trending better, but outside of the Mountains delaying the Cold, if this thing goes Neg tilt and closed off why wouldn't the upstate be in on some decent snow?

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This has always been a problem with the upstate getting cold air wrapped into a system or having cold air catch up to the moisture. The cause is the mountains. The cold air bleeds over the mountains slowly especially with this type of system. Unless the cold front blasts through then it will always be hard in this type setup to get the cold air in with the moisture.

 

[malak05]

Haha I'll say that the cold air doesn't just die there

 

[accu35]

3km

 

[Parker]

View attachment 100716
3km

DEATH BAND! You can cut that total in half two times for me. Time to ice down the yard in these 77 degree temps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

In fact you can see the downsloping footprint pretty easy on the 3km, ignore the somewhat awkward shape

 

[SNOWMANN]

In fact you can see the downsloping footprint pretty easy on the 3km, ignore the somewhat awkward shape View attachment 100717

Its throwing me the bird like always lol

 

[accu35]

 

[brendan123]

For my area it can’t get too amped or else the R/S line goes too far NW and we get mixing issues, and it can’t be too weak which’d lead to a system too far south with rates that wouldn’t be able to overcome warm ground temperatures… I hate when it comes down to balancing games like this lol

 

[accu35]

Got to love this look

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Im really honestly just waiting for the NAM to come in amped out of nowhere. It happened with the storm last late jan just like this, while the GFS/RAP/HRRR had the right idea with a more amplified system

 

[Parker]

View attachment 100722
Got to love this look

WHAT IN THE ACTUAL TARNATION AM I SEEING

 

[Stephenb888]

Upstate Sc will get in on this one. Just watch and see.

 

[Parker]

Thank you Ollie

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Nam is warning criteria for a decent chunk of Alabama

 

[Mitch West]

Upstate Sc will get in on this one. Just watch and see.

I’m sorry my guy. Upstate of SC will likely see 7 sleet pellets and a bologna sandwich

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Guess what phase this storm is occurring in

 

[Brent]

25 degrees and tiny snowflakes here. Not expecting much but still

 

[Parker]

Guys, I’m having a mental meltdown. My 8 month old is looking at me like I’m absolutely crazy. I mean we just don’t get too many nam runs like that 36 hours out. I need ARCC and Storm5 to enter the thread.

Claycochaser and bingcrosby are welcome as well.