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Pattern Januworry

Myfrotho704_ said:
This is painful watching from Charlotte, this has been the way we have gotten screwed the last 3 years, same areas everytime View attachment 99950
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It’s tough living 10 minutes from the NC/SC border. We get cold rain and all I have to do is drive 15 minutes up the road and it’ll be either icy or snowing.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm under the impression that w/ this AAM distribution and evolution (summarized as the GWO) that the deeper we go into February, the more likely we'll see +NAO/+AO/+NAM, which would favor warmth and a strong SE ridge around here. La Nina climo (February is usually warm-torchy) & the current episode of high-latitude North Pacific blocking coupled w/ +NAO & already strong +NAM in the mid-upper stratosphere lends even more credence to this idea.

Certainly will be interesting though prior to then, as the subtropical jet will be more amped than usual for much of January and the negative momentum that's entering the mid-latitudes is a favorable look for high-latitude blocking. (may be more-so in the Pacific instead of the Atlantic tho)

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So mega 2nd half of March?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Touchdown. Still a lot of outcomes possible but I wouldn't mind this one. NE NC is on deform band watch.
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Realistically I think central and eastern NC is on deform band watch .. there’s some heavy precip over even Raleigh and I’m assuming it would be snow since our temps are similar to those in eastern NC where the snow was shown .. looking at individual GEFS runs they are all roughly the same but still slightly different .. most have 1 thing in common and that is a heavy deform band .. this really will have to be looked at by the NAM to really see the inner workings of what happens .. but being in Raleigh I’m slightly excited for the chance but I’d be more excited if I was metawannabe
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Realistically I think central and eastern NC is on deform band watch .. there’s some heavy precip over even Raleigh and I’m assuming it would be snow since our temps are similar to those in eastern NC where the snow was shown .. looking at individual GEFS runs they are all roughly the same but still slightly different .. most have 1 thing in common and that is a heavy deform band .. this really will have to be looked at by the NAM to really see the inner workings of what happens .. but being in Raleigh I’m slightly excited for the chance but I’d be more excited if I was metawannabe
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Having to cool from the top down means lower your expectations to 0 and hope from there
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Exactly I’m not too excited .. but I’m getting more excited that maybe I see novelty flakes ??‍♂️
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Sounds like we are on the same page. If we shifted the upper levels just a little further south and more negative I'd be way more excited but at around 100 hours I'm not sure we are going to see that big of a jump
 
SD said:
Sounds like we are on the same page. If we shifted the upper levels just a little further south and more negative I'd be way more excited but at around 100 hours I'm not sure we are going to see that big of a jump
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Yeah, I think where you are, it's gonna be tough for that big of a shift to happen. I think for the border counties and maybe myself and @FallsLake, it's possible but still not yet probable.
 
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BullCityWx said:
Yeah, I think where you are, it's gonna be tough for that big of a shift to happen. I think for the border counties and maybe myself and @FallsLake, it's possible but still not yet probable.
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Certainly would feel more excited up your way. Seems like the RDU airport to Durham up toward Henderson, Louisburg, and Roxboro always at least change over briefly in these looks
 
12z NAM (at hour 84) is different from the 12 GFS whereas the NAM doesn't have a strong low pushing up into NC. It looks like it has later weaker development south which lets more cold air to initially dive in. If it verifies it could be more interesting for central/eastern NC folks.

12z NAM at hour 84:
aaaa1.jpg
 
FallsLake said:
12z NAM (at hour 84) is different from the 12 GFS whereas the NAM doesn't have a strong low pushing up into NC. It looks like it has later weaker development south which lets more cold air to initially dive in. If it verifies it could be more interesting for central/eastern NC folks.

12z NAM at hour 84:
View attachment 99969
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What is upstate Sc’s chances with this system. None?
 
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