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Pattern December to Remember

NorthDFWwx said:
What a trio!!!

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All three of those years got fairly chilly in January
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We truly do suck, we trend to this at a range where it’s to late for us but not for VA, wintertime is just a season of torture
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Y’all will get it at some point, just pray that some people on this board can get a win before the torch ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We truly do suck, we trend to this at a range where it’s to late for us but not for VA, wintertime is just a season of torture
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Yeah it's disappointing I wouldn't be totally surprised to see this bounce back a little north as we get closer to hour 0 which will be better for rain
 
It’s just a barrage of low pressure systems diving into Alaska and the coastal mountains of western Canada churning that cold in all the wrong places. Those areas are modeled in record cold territory while we experience the opposite.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Do you mean Jan '96, '99 and '13?

If so, what you say isn't exactly true for '99 and '13. They were cooler than the prior month, but still above average and certainly no extreme cold.

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Jan '96 was indeed chilly across the NE 2/3rd of the country, but the extreme negative anomalies were over the Northern Plains.
 
We interrupt this Negative Nelly fest with the following map from the 12Z GEFS showing H5 that is quite a bit different vs earlier runs. The change starts late next week and shows the typical uncertainty out just past day 10.

The strong cold/coldest on the planet keeps showing up on all ensemble means in W Canada source region while the US is very mild.

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So, the message remains that the ante is likely going to be way up as far as cold potential for the C US within 2 weeks and the E US within 3. Dec will almost certainly end up a very mild month in the E US. I’ve got my shorts ready. That’s been known for a few days. The uncertainty is for afterward.
 
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GaWx said:
End of 12Z GEFS suggesting drastic pattern change quite possible late month:

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And look at how cold is the W Canada source region that could easily be tapped, especially if the MJO cooperates:

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I think the GEFS has the right idea, but it's likely much too progressive w/ handing off the MJO into the W Hem which speeds up the pattern change vs what it probably would/should be. I think we probably wait until at least the last week of December/after Christmas for significant & consistent changes for the better.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the GEFS has the right idea, but it's likely much too progressive w/ handing off the MJO into the W Hem which speeds up the pattern change vs what it probably would/should be. I think we probably wait until at least the last week of December/after Christmas for significant & consistent changes for the better.
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Always too progressive…im January 15th or after…minimum.
 
While the C/E US remain mild, the extreme cold/coldest anomalies on the planet continues to show in our primary source region of W Canada at the end about every ensemble run and is poised to plunge down into the US once the MJO gives its ok:

12Z EPS
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#UpTheAnteForColdLateMonth
 
GaWx said:
The extreme cold/coldest anomalies on the planet continues to show in our primary source region of W Canada at the end about every ensemble run and is poised to plunge down into the US once the MJO gives its ok:

12Z EPS
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Interesting how there are almost no negative heights at all in Eurasia. We have seen many winters before in the last 10 years where North America had none of the blues, and Russia and Europe had all of it. I guess that is the one good thing we have going for us, so when it does arrive it will be plenty cold.
 
Lagged MJO phase composite evolution and NWP suggest the way we break out of this pattern is via -NAO. You can see the precursor signs of it setting up over Scandinavia and northern Africa + Mediterranean on the EPS & GEFS and slow moving MJOs like this one are more likely to trigger -NAOs barring it actually moves into the W hem. Probably still no less than a week, maybe two from this point in the model from a legit favorable pattern change, but that's generally consistent w/ what I've been thinking for the last week or so timing-wise.


Also we'll have to keep an eye on that vortex over NE Siberia (+WPO), if that extends eastward more towards the Aleutians, it could set off a -EPO in the late portion of the month &/or early January.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0001600.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lagged MJO phase composite evolution and NWP suggest the way we break out of this pattern is via -NAO. You can see the precursor signs of it setting up over Scandinavia and northern Africa + Mediterranean on the EPS & GEFS and slow moving MJOs like this one are more likely to trigger -NAOs barring it actually moves into the W hem. Probably still no less than a week, maybe two from this point in the model from a legit favorable pattern change, but that's generally consistent w/ what I've been thinking for the last week or so timing-wise.


Also we'll have to keep an eye on that vortex over NE Siberia (+WPO), if that extends eastward more towards the Aleutians, it could set off a -EPO in the late portion of the month &/or early January.

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Well at least the cold will be closer, in the western/central US vs Canada, lol #babysteps
 
Stormdoc said:
Interesting how there are almost no negative heights at all in Eurasia. We have seen many winters before in the last 10 years where North America had none of the blues, and Russia and Europe had all of it. I guess that is the one good thing we have going for us, so when it does arrive it will be plenty cold.
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Those are 2 meter temps rather than heights but your point is spot on with by far the largest area and most intense cold right in our primary source region waiting for the MJO to get its ass over to the left side.
 
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