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Pattern October Thread

k0skinne said:
Yes … storm sirens going off in Jasper.
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Nice little thundershower pushed through in Jasper. Tornado warned area was to the north, but it was canceled relatively quickly. Not sure of any issues. Quick shot of rain and some good thunder.
 
00z icon: wet fart for severe weather and barely drops our temps with the first wave and then a fairly hearty upper level system but overall it’s cold air is eh and just really brings us back to averages
00z cmc: much more hearty with the severe threat and in that case pulls more cold air down in a quick shot of below average temps we rise before the next big blow with a low pressure developing on the edge of that upper level low and riding up the coast and then it brings down that below average air .. nothing tremendously cold but heck of a drop from how things have gone and more than the icon showed

And last but not least the main course of the night

00z Gfs: at first glance it’s eh with the first wave like the icon but brings a quick temp relaxing then shoots us above average before the nor’easter type system appears but it’s pretty lazy with it’s cold air production and skirts off real fast … but directly after it gets caught in a storm of blocking and we go straight into late fall early winter mode for almost the entire run .. boy oh boy that would certainly shock the system highs in the 50s lows in the 30s oh and of course in fantasy land we have the first onset ice cold rain CAD event .. GOOD HEAVENS
 
Getting closer! Start the November thread! ?737CF6EC-7F12-4B2F-86DF-AFBFF40744BC.png
 
Euro looks more ominous with windfields. Wish euro had instability as a parameter to see. None the less may be a decent severe weather episode. As it's been a while since I've seen a 6 day out severe area. Looks like difluent flow aloft and with. A surface low in north Missouri surface winds will be veering from the southeast. So there should be ample amount of instability.
Screenshot_20211022-073807-436.pngScreenshot_20211022-063739-970.png
 
Zander98al said:
Euro looks more ominous with windfields. Wish euro had instability as a parameter to see. None the less may be a decent severe weather episode. As it's been a while since I've seen a 6 day out severe area. Looks like difluent flow aloft and with. A surface low in north Missouri surface winds will be veering from the southeast. So there should be ample amount of instability.
View attachment 93221View attachment 93222
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Certainly like the closed low feature on the euro for severe potential
 
Zander98al said:
Euro looks more ominous with windfields. Wish euro had instability as a parameter to see. None the less may be a decent severe weather episode. As it's been a while since I've seen a 6 day out severe area. Looks like difluent flow aloft and with. A surface low in north Missouri surface winds will be veering from the southeast. So there should be ample amount of instability.
View attachment 93221View attachment 93222
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What's the potential for this to trend more of a CAD in the CAD regions?
 
If we can draw the energy down that's around the northern border and we can get really chilly to start November icon_z500_vort_us_61 (11).png

Unfortunately the gfs and euro flatten and expand the ridge to our west so we miss out
 
SD said:
If we can draw the energy down that's around the northern border and we can get really chilly to start November View attachment 93267

Unfortunately the gfs and euro flatten and expand the ridge to our west so we miss out
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Still interesting to note that both Gfs and cmc still try and keep building that west coast ridge even as that system moves out which with the blocking still apparent above keeps cool shots directed at us 681DC860-A074-4A00-8355-FEF394D02DD4.jpeg9A06A45F-B6A3-493D-91B7-08584E084332.jpeg
 
No tornado but awesome structure
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It’s crazy how much the west coast pattern seems to be changing on models .. lots of west coast riding showing up some solid +PNA action definitely looks like it’s helping displace some legit cold finally towards the US .. euro shows this nicely at the end of the run with some very below average temps at 850 surging into the central US … interesting pattern we’re getting into the severe weather might be the precursor to this change .. certainly love not seeing consistent troughing on the west coast although it’s not too far away so still anything possible here
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Still interesting to note that both Gfs and cmc still try and keep building that west coast ridge even as that system moves out which with the blocking still apparent above keeps cool shots directed at us View attachment 93269View attachment 93270
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This is the type of pattern that I could see setting up for the first half of winter. Will there be some mild days? Yes, but as we get further along there will be some cold spells in there too. We need to see some snow cover start to build over northern Canada in the next several weeks… it should start to happen as they are losing daylight very quickly now.
 
As an avid watcher of models and follower of the never wrong Maxar ;), it is quite obvious that we’re headed for a much colder pattern within a week or so. A near to BN nov is very much on the table in much if the US.
 
I dont think it's good to see it get colder in November because it is not a winter month. I mentioned previously that outside of higher elevations, it will be rather difficult to see it snow/ice unless it's a very anomalous pattern. Would rather wait until mid-end November to lock a cold pattern in for a while
 
Mr. Golf said:
I dont think it's good to see it get colder in November because it is not a winter month. I mentioned previously that outside of higher elevations, it will be rather difficult to see it snow/ice unless it's a very anomalous pattern. Would rather wait until mid-end November to lock a cold pattern in for a while
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I think a chilly November would be excellent.
 
Mr. Golf said:
I dont think it's good to see it get colder in November because it is not a winter month. I mentioned previously that outside of higher elevations, it will be rather difficult to see it snow/ice unless it's a very anomalous pattern. Would rather wait until mid-end November to lock a cold pattern in for a while
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November 2010, a LaNina, was overall a cooler than average month for many of us and set the stage for a well below average first half of winter… now I don’t think we’ll see a well below average first half of winter, but a cooler than average November doesn’t necessarily mean winter is cut off there after
 
Mr. Golf said:
I dont think it's good to see it get colder in November because it is not a winter month. I mentioned previously that outside of higher elevations, it will be rather difficult to see it snow/ice unless it's a very anomalous pattern. Would rather wait until mid-end November to lock a cold pattern in for a while
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We all know whatever happens in October or November doesn’t correlate to what we should expect for the winter months it’s just an added bonus
 
Chazwin said:
November 2010, a LaNina, was overall a cooler than average month for many of us and set the stage for a well below average first half of winter… now I don’t think we’ll see a well below average first half of winter, but a cooler than average November doesn’t necessarily mean winter is cut off there after
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If it wasn't a 2nd year niña, I would be more excited. Each winter is different when push comes to shove, but a trough out west if it repeats often this winter, would require tremendous blocking to offset it imo
 
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