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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

That outter band on the 18z 3KM NAM is gonna pound us here in SC Midlands. Wouldn't be surprised to see 60+ winds in the heavier ones.
 
Shawn said:
That outter band on the 18z 3KM NAM is gonna pound us here in SC Midlands. Wouldn't be surprised to see 60+ winds in the heavier ones.
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Yeah if those winds aren't realized in the large-scale stratiform precipitation, they may be with the isolated-scattered tornadoes that will probably be prevalent in that outer band even up through North & South Carolina
 
I can't decide if whether it's started raining, just lightly or it's just wind whenever the wind picks up...but as of now, the light rain just keeps dissipating as it tries to hit my area going by radar....gonna be a loooonnnnggggg day tomorrow.
 
Most of us inland that will be affected by Irma (AL, GA and SC) will get the full force of Irma tomorrow. The winds will increase as the night goes on tonight for us inland.
 
I don't think there will be many tornadoes in north Georgia. A few can't be ruled out though. Slight chance for tornadoes for southeastern GA and east-central GA.
 
what would happen if she decided to to the impossible and hook west and get back over the GOM?? just a hypothetical question
 
The shear and low level vorticity is pretty ridiculous here, even in a stable environment with CAD, this is still a very favorable setup for tornadoes across Georgia (even the northern parts of the state) & the Carolinas because literally any cell that gets going will probably start rotating violently when you have ~500 m2/s2 of SRH & 40-60 knots of bulk shear..
 
New cone.
214156_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Shawn said:
That outter band on the 18z 3KM NAM is gonna pound us here in SC Midlands. Wouldn't be surprised to see 60+ winds in the heavier ones.
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Yep. In the over night hrs if I read it right.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
Where will the boundary be??
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The CAD boundary will be somewhere in the vicinity of the central-western piedmont as more significant precipitation begins to move in, although better instability will be further to the south & east. The intersection of these should lead to a legitimate tornado threat esp across the eastern half-2/3rds of the state...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD boundary will be somewhere in the vicinity of the central-western piedmont as more significant precipitation begins to move in, although better instability will be further to the south & east. The intersection of these should lead to a legitimate tornado threat esp across the eastern half-2/3rds of the state...
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Is it possible for Alabama to see any spin ups tomorrow?
 
You think we could see some severe storms in the Triangle tomorrow or more western part of NC?
 
Brick Tamland said:
You think we could see some severe storms in the Triangle tomorrow or more western part of NC?
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The outter most banding should make it your way. Especially as the storm "explodes" for lack of a better word right now in its transition. 3KM NAM alludes to you guys getting in on the action.
 
I should also say to my previous post Brick, that it won't be as intense as to your South, but it does show some possible cells around.
 
Shawn said:
The outter most banding should make it your way. Especially as the storm "explodes" for lack of a better word right now in its transition. 3KM NAM alludes to you guys getting in on the action.
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Ugh, hate when there is a severe threat when I'm a work and the kids are at school. I recall one time I the lateb80s or early 90s when I was in high school we got out at noon one time because if a severe threat from a hurricane.
 
accu35 said:
Is it possible for Alabama to see any spin ups tomorrow?
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Tomorrow, most of the strong low level shear & richer moisture/instability will be across south-central Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina (especially south of highway 64/RDU). There still may be a lingering threat directly underneath Irma's remnant low-mid level circulation on Tuesday and potentially Wednesday over Alabama and the Tennessee Valley
 
the new map is way east and south compared to the last one which still had it as S over BMX

this is from the 9th @ 2300hrs NOTE: i did some editing on this one so disregard the crappy drawings
Capture.png
 
That death band over the FL/GA border right now is crazy!
 
Okay, have read all the posts about the winds in central north GA with the track the way it is now and all those winds in north GA. Will tropical storm force wind or isolated tornadoes threaten southeast TN. Hard to believe winds decrease from the Dalton area into Chattanooga. Tropical storm watch right over border but just a Wind advisory for southeast Tennessee
 
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This thing sure looks like it's going to be further East than that NHC track. Cause it looks to me like it is already a lot more off track than forecast?
 
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