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Pattern October Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
I’m just trying to think back to a time the SE as a whole was in significant drought/ constant ridges stuck in that type of pattern for months like I feel like the WEST deals with every other year now … I certainly remember a time in the summer one year when I was a kid where it would just never rain .. don’t see much of that anymore
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When were you a kid? Lol The 00s had some serious droughts
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
With the amount you complain about it you deserve 0 inches
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Nicky are you cranky this morning? It must get frustrating watching all those mirages dissappear as they come under 300 hrs. OR you ate some Cornflakes.

I keep receipts, and I'll be sure to remind you in February when you're complaining about your lack of cold or snow.
 
I wonder if we could be looking at some severe weather events around here starting in about a week. The 00z Euro was quite interesting.
 
BufordWX said:
I wonder if we could be looking at some severe weather events around here starting in about a week. The 00z Euro was quite interesting.
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BufordWX said:
Even the SPC is somewhat interested in next Sunday.View attachment 91965
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Zrwwr0kBE7aD.gif
 
Wulfer said:
Solid black woolly worm found by our kids last night. No strips just completely solid black. I've not seen one of those in years.
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That means a solid cold winter from start to finish. No brown means no warm. Here's the official folk-lore....The longer the woolly bear's black bands, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be. Similarly, the wider the middle brown band is associated with a milder upcoming winter. The position of the longest dark bands supposedly indicates which part of winter will be coldest or hardest.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feels like we’re continuing to push things back and keep this western trough/eastern ridge regime in place View attachment 91975
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If this pattern maintains itself for just a few more days and verifies all the way, we may be able to start looking at the possibility of a top 3 on record warm October in some places, especially from much of the SE through the NE and into much of the Midwest.

In these 3 SE locations, here are the warmest Octobers on record (hopefully I didn't miss any when I looked at the list):

1. RDU:

69.3 1919

68.1 1941

67.4 2007

65.8 2019



2. ATL:

70.8 1919

69.8 1984

69.6 2016

69.4 1941



3. Nashville, TN:

68.2 1919

67.9 1947

67.8 1941

67.7 2016


ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015 (2).png
 
GaWx said:
If this pattern maintains itself for just a few more days and verifies all the way, we may be able to start looking at the possibility of a top 3 on record warm October in some places, especially from much of the SE through the NE and into much of the Midwest.

In these 3 SE locations, here are the warmest Octobers on record (hopefully I didn't miss any when I looked at the list):

1. RDU:

69.3 1919

68.1 1941

67.4 2007

65.8 2019



2. ATL:

70.8 1919

69.8 1984

69.6 2016

69.4 1941



3. Nashville, TN:

68.2 1919

67.9 1947

67.8 1941

67.7 2016


View attachment 91980
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Just using RDU ... seen worse for winter plots ...

cd98.180.247.146.275.16.41.55.prcp.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I don’t think any models had it breaking up at this time even the past few days seems like everything is on track as models have shown past week
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Gefs showed pac jet retraction with the AK vortex sliding towards the Aleutians and lowering heights here, now it’s trended much warmer
Before 180D7407-0D18-4C93-A6EE-079F3EFF02B4.png4018621F-3DB7-40E3-A288-482D39843E84.png
Now 0C94101E-B91A-4ACF-80BA-7C1F4B0F03B6.pngDE82913C-49E2-451F-A991-AA0475DFAF0B.png
Cmon cold weenie do better
 
Above average for most of us for the forseeable future, which should make fro happy. I tell you what though; I miss the Octobers of yesteryear, when we could expect 60s and 40s to start rolling in and getting those leaves turning. It was actually a very nice September for my neck of the woods, but October not looking like its going to cooperate. And as for leaf color; I can't remember the last fall with really good widespread color. The last number of years have been late and very dull to almost non existent color for the upstate at least. Maybe connected to the very wet years of late but I would love an old fashioned fall with the cooler nights and bright deep color!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Above average for most of us for the forseeable future, which should make fro happy. I tell you what though; I miss the Octobers of yesteryear, when we could expect 60s and 40s to start rolling in and getting those leaves turning. It was actually a very nice September for my neck of the woods, but October not looking like its going to cooperate. And as for leaf color; I can't remember the last fall with really good widespread color. The last number of years have been late and very dull to almost non existent color for the upstate at least. Maybe connected to the very wet years of late but I would love an old fashioned fall with the cooler nights and bright deep color!
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❤️
 
It gonna be wet! AD1F818D-655A-4B81-BCDC-6C81964E903D.png
 
SD said:
Roll the D7 analogs forward and you end up here around the last week of Oct into early November give or take a few days
View attachment 92006
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Is it too early to start the Nov thread because Oct is just gonna suck lol
 
metwannabe said:
Is it too early to start the Nov thread because Oct is just gonna suck lol
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Gefs continue to try to retrograde us out with a weaker pac jet but they are notorious for trying to do so in the extended (see modeled winter patterns D10+ since 2005 for examples). We get out eventually and probably reverse the anomalies but boy it's going to be tough around here for 2-3 weeks
 
SD said:
Should help some of the big drought areas in the west and plains. That's about all I got.

Maybe the system early next week is a little more impressive and flattens the pattern briefly and we can get a dew point drop.... maybe...
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Yeah, because honestly looking at the forecast the next 10-14 days, high temperatures aren’t bad at all… mostly upper 70s to around 80 which is nothing unusual for this time of the year. Where we’re getting above average is our lows which is obviously due to the higher dews
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, because honestly looking at the forecast the next 10-14 days, high temperatures aren’t bad at all… mostly upper 70s to around 80 which is nothing unusual for this time of the year. Where we’re getting above average is our lows which is obviously due to the higher dews
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Looking at the eps spreads the large % of members are 85 or less. We are getting to the point of the year where it's hard to be truly hot I believe RDUs records fall below 90 next week. If anything it's just an incredibly annoying pattern when most of us would rather be in the 70s for highs 50s for lows with dews in the 40s & 50s
 
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