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Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Wow one northern winter broke you real quick! But trust me I get it. I've experienced northern plains and Rocky mtn cold myself. I can handle a NYC winter. And even Chicago because I like snow. But that out your way is just brutal and disrespectful. And the wind there makes it even worse.
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If it wasn’t for me taking this high paying job up here I would of stayed in Alabama…and I can admit a snow weenie like me who barely seen as much snow I’ve have seen my entire life after just one year up here has been awesome but them freaking cold ? temps and wind ? is just to much to bare
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’m just not ready to see the blue colors right now give me about another 4 months or so
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We have done alot of sleepless nights in winter hoping like hell the models will trend in our favor for a winter storm. February was good to my area, but it was a rarity with the three winter storms in one week ????
 
Mr. Golf said:
We have done alot of sleepless nights in winter hoping like hell the models will trend in our favor for a winter storm. February was good to my area, but it was a rarity with the three winter storms in one week ????
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We don't ever see it snow at 12 degrees very often with winds blowing 15-20??
 
Mr. Golf said:
We have done alot of sleepless nights in winter hoping like hell the models will trend in our favor for a winter storm. February was good to my area, but it was a rarity with the three winter storms in one week ????
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I've seen times the models actually did trend in our favor, only to bust at verification time.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Might be the best ECMWF seasonal look I’ve seen in some time, fits the frontloaded theme as it switched to a mega SER in February View attachment 90250
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This is honestly what I’ve been thinking. It’s not too far off from what we had in Dec/Jan last year, but the big difference is that I do think there will be some cold air in the North American source regions to work with. Now I’m in now way saying that I think we see wall to wall cold for 2 months… I’m thinking more in the way up and down swings to where we come out close to average where as last year we just saw temperatures around average most days. I do think February is probably gonna torch as SER ridge really pumps up based on Niña climo… the only thing that could effect that is if the -NAO holds like we saw last year and CAD regions end up getting wedged.
 
Chazwin said:
This is honestly what I’ve been thinking. It’s not too far off from what we had in Dec/Jan last year, but the big difference is that I do think there will be some cold air in the North American source regions to work with. Now I’m in now way saying that I think we see wall to wall cold for 2 months… I’m thinking more in the way up and down swings to where we come out close to average where as last year we just saw temperatures around average most days. I do think February is probably gonna torch as SER ridge really pumps up based on Niña climo… the only thing that could effect that is if the -NAO holds like we saw last year and CAD regions end up getting wedged.
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I think February is overall warm too, but not an exclusively non-winter month. I think it will still contain a cold shot with perhaps a chance to thread the needle.
 
-ENSO Decembers occasionally give a chance or two. We'll see if this winter has anything
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Might be the best ECMWF seasonal look I’ve seen in some time, fits the frontloaded theme as it switched to a mega SER in February View attachment 90250
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I’ll take front loaded!!!!! Less waiting ? but also we can always try to finagle a -NAO late game to shut that SER up .. maybe a little early January SSWE ???? ?
 
I wish I could find the link to the NC Climate Office study about the faborable patterns for snow in the Triangle. I know we have had the most favorable pattern a couple of times the last few years and didn't get squat.
 
No matter what we think about it, I think this Winter will be the one where we all start considering global warming a bit more seriously than we previously had.

I've pretty much lost all expectations the last few years. It just doesn't seem to want to snow anymore in the Carolina Piedmont for whatever reason.
 
SnowNiner said:
No matter what we think about it, I think this Winter will be the one where we all start considering global warming a bit more seriously than we previously had.

I've pretty much lost all expectations the last few years. It just doesn't seem to want to snow anymore in the Car for whatever reason.
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Fixed
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wish I could find the link to the NC Climate Office study about the faborable patterns for snow in the Triangle. I know we have had the most favorable pattern a couple of times the last few years and didn't get squat.
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Remember , if we are ever under a slight chance, or some sort of advisory , or in a statistically favorable pattern … it will never ever possibly work for us . Remember ! It has to always sneak up on us .

Did I use your logic properly?
 
Lickwx said:
Remember , if we are ever under a slight chance, or some sort of advisory , or in a statistically favorable pattern … it will never ever possibly work for us . Remember ! It has to always sneak up on us .

Did I use your logic properly?
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That only happens with storms. And if you go back the last 10 years you will actually see that my area does get more storms when I am not under any kind of watch and better storms when there is less hype about severe weather than when there is.
 
I am a total amateur weather nerd, I freely admit that. I know all the models, etc, aren’t showing much for the south as a whole anytime soon. But since we’re basically all just guessing at the moment (haha!) I thought I’d add my prediction, just for posterity (and probably eventual mockery ?). But, I’ve got to say - I’ve seen really strange bird migration behavior here in N. Georgia - we had our entire front yard *full* of literally (cuz I counted) 40+ robins a few days ago - I have never seen that in the 16+ years I’ve lived here. We usually have robins all year long, but I’ve never seen so very many at once, especially this time of year. My hummingbirds are fighting over the feeders even more than usual, about 2-3 weeks earlier than they usually freak out. My cats and dog are shedding like you wouldn’t believe, about a month before they usually do. We had a few days of the typical orb weaver spider invasion we see every fall, but they’ve largely all gone away, already. There’s been a lot of earthquakes recently, at least it seems so to me (totally unscientific observation, I’ll admit), and I do think that’s somehow connected to weather. So, if I had to just instinctively guess, I’m thinking front loaded cold here where I am in N. Georgia. Maybe not a lot of snow, but it’s going to be cold, and early. And I still believe we are way overdue for a major ice storm here, so I’ll leave that on the table. Again - this is all just a guess, and I try to stay quiet and listen to the experts when things are actually interesting. But thought it might be ok to throw my random thoughts out there right now. Love learning from all you guys, btw! :)
 
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