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Tropical TS Fred

deltadog03 said:
yesterday the hwrf actually showed this opening up today only to have a hurricane at SFL and into the EGOM after that.....I do agree....this looks like hell.
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Yeah. Someone posted that on another forum. Current Satellite looks similar to yesterdays HWRF.
 

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I see a few models already shifting west. Mobile/Pcola not out of the question
 
Tropical storm watch for the keys and southern florida.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
FROM FFC, KATL:

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the ''dirty'' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, their Is still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.
 
bigstick10 said:
FROM FFC, KATL:

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Tropical Depression Fred continues to move up the NNE coastline
of Cuba and is forecast by the NHC to slide up the western Florida
peninsula coastline before making landfall in the Central Florida
panhandle. Models are fairly consistent with the storm track up
until that point with several hurricane models now less optimistic
about storm intensity, though this still remains one of the
hardest things to forecast about a tropical system so that's very
subject to change. Major discrepancies come once the storm makes
landfall, with most models steering it along the edge of a
developing upper-level trough in the Mississippi Valley. This
trough would act to direct the center of the tropical cyclone path
around the Columbus and Atlanta areas, with the highest impacts
to the right of the track, affectionately call the ''dirty'' side of
the storm, where rainfall values could be as high as 2-4 inches
with locally higher amounts and some portions of central Georgia
seeing wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Noticeably, the GFS is
not one of these solutions which instead greatly weakens the storm
and pushes it further west. This all to say, their Is still a
great amount of uncertainty with this system so we ask our
audience to please current with the latest information as it
comes available.
Click to expand...
I can't take this anymore. Keep moving westward or weaken please. Atlanta does not need this!
 
Hard to believe Birmingham NWS says very little or no impact across AL from Fred given the track. I guess 100% of the impacts will be east of the center.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Hard to believe Birmingham NWS says very little or no impact across AL from Fred given the track. I guess 100% of the impacts will be east of the center.
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Always worse East and north of the center. West Georgia might not see a lot either. It’s going to be weak so nothing to get excited about.
 
deltadog03 said:
Recon looks like it's confirming that the center is being pulled back under that convection.
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Also, didn't the Euro strengthened Fred vort around this time frame vrs the gfs? Levi video kinda explains the difference
 
Fred is certainly not much to look at, invest 95 looking healthier than him ATM, needs to reform the center under the convective blob to really stand a chance of making it the next 36 hrs to the possible window of better conditions.....
 
hmon_mslp_uv850_06L_37.pngFWIW, HMON is consistent with a western FL Panhandle LF. Little stronger this run also. If I recall this model done good on past storms
 
Some preliminary bands ahead of Fred have finally made it to SE Florida, and a stronger one just offshore. There's lightening off the Coast from my East facing wind, and occasional flashes from the wave that just passed. Dogs are huddled in the corner like a bunch of b####es. Highest winds gust was 34.

Screen Shot 2021-08-12 at 9.31.36 PM.png
 
Yuck, no storms anywhere near the center.....Fred needs to do something soon....the GFS has been nailing storms this year and if this thing falls apart it will be another win for the GFS....

1628838975328.png
 
Last edited:
BHS1975 said:
Could it reform under that southern blowup?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It would practically be a new system at that point, the LLC is well NW of that.....

The current center is in the red circle....or maybe even a little NW of there its tough to tell without visible images

67e3e8d1-159f-423e-95a5-e1a3a5d30b24.jpg
 
bigstick10 said:
LOL, OMG, to an untrained eye one would think that blob is Fred..
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It might end up as Fred. Recon is otw and the first visible images are coming soon. Will be interesting to see if the llc is elongated back to the blob or if the blob may be trying to take over all together. Thing is though Fred has done this a few times in is life cycle where it forms deep convection down shear from the llc but the llc has continued to motor along as the storms collapse behind it
 
SD said:
It might end up as Fred. Recon is otw and the first visible images are coming soon. Will be interesting to see if the llc is elongated back to the blob or if the blob may be trying to take over all together. Thing is though Fred has done this a few times in is life cycle where it forms deep convection down shear from the llc but the llc has continued to motor along as the storms collapse behind it
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It's Wilma lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Yep looks like whatever reflection of a llc that is left is making landfall in Cuba as well
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Yep, right there barely and as you already stated, what a mess. Also looks like the thunderstorm cluster to the S/SE is starting to weaken, who knows what the day will bring with this, all kinds of options on the table

1628857164792.png
 
metwannabe said:
Yep, right there barely and as you already stated, what a mess. Also looks like the thunderstorm cluster to the S/SE is starting to weaken, who knows what the day will bring with this, all kinds of options on the table

View attachment 88109
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Yeah at this point it's like where does the next cluster of storms form. Most models seem consistent that a new cluster of storms will get going to the E and NE of what's left of the llc and that's what will take over. Hard to believe a lot right now given how it's gone so far
 
06 GFS almost spot on with location, actually has it as an open wave later today/tonight (very close now) then tries to redevelop something Sunday morning with a weak system into Panhandle of Fl. Monday.

Btw, who broke the GFS?
 
SD said:
Yeah at this point it's like where does the next cluster of storms form. Most models seem consistent that a new cluster of storms will get going to the E and NE of what's left of the llc and that's what will take over. Hard to believe a lot right now given how it's gone so far
Click to expand...
I'm actually surprised and impressed the LLC has held on as long as it has but really seems to finally be running out of steam. I see this as an open wave later today and right, where does the next cluster form to try to regenerate a llc. We need a poll (put some money on it lol)
 
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