Xtreme Weather
Member
Sadly nature usually thins the herd
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
- Status
Sadly nature usually thins the herd
That will be tough, being the circulation is so large.
Xtreme Weather
Member
48hr still moving NW still in the GOM W trend continues
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah, and I doubt it won't recover some before landfall given the environment is good for some form of strengthening.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Tampa well little farther S Cape Coral area
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And still going strong pressure wise.
Snow_chaser
Member
So if she gets in the gulf, will she come due north, go nw, or curve ne into land before continuing into Georgia
Xtreme Weather
Member
66 hits the big bend of FL geez
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like Miami is going to get lucky and miss a direct hit.
pcbjr
Member
and at that pressure I do not belive those inland winds are anywhere near accurateAnd still going strong pressure wise.
pcbjr
Member
I am no forecaster, but a week ago, somewhere back in this thread, I strongly suggested Big Bend ... but I do not now think it likely (yes, possible but not likely) ... but we'll see ... at least it is sparsely populated if that is the ultimate outcome ....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Here is the 850s. Knock those down some and that is
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Jeez if that happens I imagine the inland threats would be massive
pcbjr
Member
more realistic! thanks!Here is the 850s. Knock those down some and that iscloser to reality.
pcbjr
Member
precisely ...
W
WeatherLC
Guest
What happens next?
pcbjr
Member
all Hades lets loose ...
in all seriousness, if she is that far west and dings the Big Bend, SW GA and central AL have an issue ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I would think that a realistic speed would be between cat 1 and 2 strength. (75 to 100 mph)
W
WeatherLC
Guest
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pcbjr
Member
more in line with current thinking from this end ... with all these trees ... not good
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing Irma head into Cuba on the HMON seems a bit weird. She takes a plunge right into the island which doesn't seem right. Have to watch the movement. For now, Irma is moving west.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Waiting on next data set to come in
pcbjr
Member
Not directed at you, FS, but rather to your post - a well educated statement on why not to hang on to what a model says and base life on it ....
Xtreme Weather
Member
Come into Valdosta then Columbus GA then moves over east al along and west of hwy 431
If correct eye almost goes right over MBY LoL
If Spann saw jaw probably dropped little LoL
If correct eye almost goes right over MBY LoL
If Spann saw jaw probably dropped little LoL
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol yep. Definitely a true statement. Maybe I will learn come winter
.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
For us here in GA, here is what is currently expected rainfall wise.
For us here in GA, here is what is currently expected rainfall wise.
That makes more sense the the one they had earlier today.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
FWIW ...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Provides some idea of continued uncertainty, even at this late hour ...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Provides some idea of continued uncertainty, even at this late hour ...
W
WeatherLC
Guest
How favorable is the eastern gulf for development?
Xtreme Weather
Member
SST around 30 cel. Bath water if IF this track happened land interaction probably hinder a little bit
pcbjr
Member
Development (as in new) or strengthening (as in Irma)?
W
WeatherLC
Guest
pcbjr
Member
It is a bathtub and no real shear ... if she gets out there a bit and if she avoids Cuba beforehand, someone will be writing a thesis on cosmic strength ... in other words, if she gets into the Gulf and takes a pause and a gulp before, I would not want to be in the Big Bend to Tall ... or any points north or west for a few 100 miles ...
Xtreme Weather
Member
This is the area where the infamous Charley underwent insane strengthening back 2004
BHS1975
Member
dsaur
Member
All those folks are still in play. It worries me to have a potential Cat 5 with so much indecision showing, lol. It won't take much more westward drift to put it in the bath tub, then who knows. All I know is I'd rather ride it out in a frame house, than in my car on some side road in the country. There will be a lot of life and death decisions made before this drama is done.
pcbjr
Member
Tony, unfortunately, some stupid decisions have been made by some ...
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