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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

To get as far west as us you'd need something like this where the ridge center poking into the NE coast by its far enough north a system can gain latitude View attachment 85845

For the coastal scrapers you'd likely have the ridge farther SE and the trough closer over the main land and to get something that crosses the FL east coast into the gulf that ridge is typically centered near or over us
Ahh okay that’s a great explanation, thanks man. So for instance if 95L developed (would be on this blue dot) this look would favor a scraper? Or would this trough instill a more easterly flow and force a recurve
 

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Ahh okay that’s a great explanation, thanks man. So for instance if 95L developed (would be on this blue dot) this look would favor a scraper? Or would this trough instill a more easterly flow and force a recurve

Would be hard to imagine that set up bringing much here but S fl and the FL gulf side would be in trouble. After that it would probably go ots. It would really depend on how wick quick the trough lifts and the subtropical ridge builds back. We would really have to wait to be honest since we have moving parts
 

This is not good.


Nor is the fact were ahead of last year technically...

You know if Elsa becomes a hurricane(questionable but not impossible) we'll be even more ahead of last year. Hanna was the first hurricane the last week of July
 
Here's a better one. Could be trouble for the NE.

33b2e4b17e4cf5276fa54cbd8736bb21.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Don't know if anyone has been paying attention, gefs has been showing a few frames of something coming up from the Caribbean into the gulf in the mid range. Anyone see that?
 
Screenshot_20210710-194521_Chrome.jpgMay not mean much, but this is the time frame I was talking about, something tries.
 
Yeah not much noise in the models through the next couple of weeks. Should be quiet unless we get a homegrown in the next 10 days. I figure by late July we should start to see more storms showing up in long range modeling.
That front over the weekend into next week probably gets something going but I'd guess it's ots unless something weird happens
 
I just plotted the latest IMME ensemble mean 500mb anomaly forecast for ASO w/ a global mean removed (Those + height anomalies are actually twice as large in the raw data)

Probably the ugliest looking steering pattern you could possibly ask for at the peak of the hurricane season

 
I just plotted the latest IMME ensemble mean 500mb anomaly forecast for ASO w/ a global mean removed (Those + height anomalies are actually twice as large in the raw data)

Probably the ugliest looking steering pattern you could possibly ask for at the peak of the hurricane season



Ouch. Hope that's wrong. Interestingly today Dr Knapp was highlighting the likelihood of many more US landfalls because of steering so it makes me wonder if they had seen this as well.
 
Ouch. Hope that's wrong. Interestingly today Dr Knapp was highlighting the likelihood of many more US landfalls because of steering so it makes me wonder if they had seen this as well.

This is what Hurricane Hugo's steering pattern looked like fwiw. Point is, that 500mb pattern is ugly

compday.p9_UTu4Bhc.gif
 
This is what Hurricane Hugo's steering pattern looked like fwiw. Point is, that 500mb pattern is ugly

View attachment 86581

Those ULL over the lower Miss Valley also play into the big hits....helps to keep canes strong and sustainable on a due NW or NNW heading a la Hugo and Fran...bringing the core winds well inland....
 
Those ULL over the lower Miss Valley also play into the big hits....helps to keep canes strong and sustainable on a due NW or NNW heading a la Hugo and Fran...bringing the core winds well inland....
That’s is true. They also can help to bring in a lot of moisture out well ahead of the storm. One of the effects of Hugo that was forgotten was the flooding rains that came in starting about 18 hours before landfall along the Savannah River…. many areas in southern SC and southeast GA saw as much 10-12 inches of rain before the storm even came ashore
 
Hurricane Felicia's IR presentation tonight reminds me a lot of Hurricane Isabel (2003). Annular hurricanes are awesome

View attachment 86676


View attachment 86677

When Felicia was becoming annular, it also had pronounced mesovorticies much like Isabel...in fact, even though, it was nighttime (no visible sat imagery), you can see how as Felicia really begun to ramp up, a strong low level vortices structure completely isolated itself dead center of her and eroded rapidly (it was like watching the conclusion of a microscale ERC..this was about 2 days ago... it was quite a sight to behold
 
I am going to PCB Aug 5 - 10 for vacation. Hope it last a few more weeks till that trip is over. I rather fight passing thunderstorms than a TS.

I'm heading to Miami First week of August. My wife isn't sad about this SAL fart.
 
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