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2021 hurricane season thread

Chazwin

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So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?
 

Shaggy

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So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?
I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
 

Chazwin

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I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
I also wonder what kind of effects it could have over Africa in terms of developing waves
 

Downeastnc

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The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
 

Chazwin

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The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
Doing some research I found that the 1902 season only had 5 known storm, but 3 of those were landfalls on the Gulf coast. There were only two know storms in the Caribbean and both of those went well well east of Bermuda. Obviously being 1902 there were at least a few more fish storms that weren’t observed by shipping. Perhaps the volcanic dust in the atmosphere could have an impact on development... we know from recent years that development has been slow during times of increased Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic.
 

Downeastnc

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Doing some research I found that the 1902 season only had 5 known storm, but 3 of those were landfalls on the Gulf coast. There were only two know storms in the Caribbean and both of those went well well east of Bermuda. Obviously being 1902 there were at least a few more fish storms that weren’t observed by shipping. Perhaps the volcanic dust in the atmosphere could have an impact on development... we know from recent years that development has been slow during times of increased Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic.
Interestingly enough the 1902 eruption was in early May so the timing is only a few weeks different....this is pretty cool and if from yesterday.....if you look close you can see the shock waves moving out in the surrounding cloud field.....or at least I think I can see that...

 

Bannerdude

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"NHC is again partnering with NOAA’s Southeast and Caribbean Regional Collaboration Team (SECART) to offer a series of hurricane-related webinars prior to the start of the 2021 hurricane season. The series will begin on May 3rd with a presentation by NHC Director Ken Graham on the record setting 2020 hurricane season. He will be joined by USAID’s Tim Callaghan who will discuss the USAID response in Central America to Hurricanes Eta and Iota, and Roger Erikson of WFO Lake Charles who will talk about the impacts of the 2020 season in southwestern Louisiana."


Additional webinars will be conducted on May 10 (in Spanish), May 17, May 24, May 27, and June 3 on a variety of hurricane-related topics. Please see this link for additional information:


https://www.noaa.gov/regions/2021-hurricane-awareness-webinars


The webinars are open to the general public
 
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Snowfan

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I know this is not the Atlantic but the Eastern Pacific could see a early season tropical cyclone.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071500
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is possible during the
next few days, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 PM PDT this evening, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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