• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

2021 hurricane season thread

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
1,068
Reaction score
2,211
Location
Wingate, NC
This may need to be watched too some of the models are showing something trying to develop and headed for areas that do not need more rain in TX LAView attachment 84160
I just mentioned something about this in the May thread. This certainly looks to have a little potential if it’s over water long enough. The Euro is wanting to develop it into a TS in the next 24-48 hrs. The question might be is it going to develop a closed circulation
 

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
1,068
Reaction score
2,211
Location
Wingate, NC
Am I the only person that thinks advances in technology and increases in the need for public awareness is leading to more names.

Fire away I'm sure this will cause a ruckus
This is absolutely true. Obviously we can see a lot more with satellites than can be seen prior when the only way we knew there were storms were from ships at sea, and that would only be known if a storm was affecting the shipping lanes. Even still, I’ve seen several systems get named over the last few years that would never have been named 20 years ago.
 

Tornadocane

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Messages
398
Reaction score
573
Location
Hollywood, FL
After the pitiful excuses I’ve seen called TCs over the past few years, absolutely no.
The NHC started naming subtropical cyclones in 2002, and I don't think they do the same in any other basin. To suggest that the criteria for naming storms has not changed is just dishonest.

The other criteria that has changed due to the advent of new technology and more frequent HH missions is that Tropical Storms needed to sustain convection and hold a close low for 12-24 hours. We've all seen names for storms that sustain Tropical Storm or Depression criteria for less than 6 or 12 hours. For example, sometimes an open, broad low near the Gulf Coast will quickly close-up as it's influenced by a weak cold front, and then disintegrate as it's dragged off to the NE. Sometimes it's legitimate, but sometimes it's embarrassing.
 

Tornadocane

Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Messages
398
Reaction score
573
Location
Hollywood, FL
The Wet Season has been delayed in S. Florida, resulting in one of the nicest Mays I’ve experienced since 2017. The month was dominated by comfy dew points and breezy weather. Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach only received 2.05” and .65” of rain for the month. The rainfall departures have been around 2.5-5” throughout S. FL. Most stations average around 5-6” for the month. Our luck with dry weather seems to have run out with dry weather.

I mention this because many people with 30+ years in S. Florida have adamantly expressed to me that there’s a much greater chance of MH impacts this year due to the dry condition in May. One of my friends from Law School recently told me that S. Florida has a 60% chance of receiving MH impacts this year. It seems hokey, but he mentioned the dry-may correlation in 2017 before Irma rolled through the straights. Does anyone know if there’s scientific data supporting this assertion?

In any event, GFS been showing development of TC moving through Northern Caribbean and Straights of Florida into the Gulf around 10-12th of June.

0bc856d9636bedb390e79ae9b01376a8.jpg
 
Last edited:

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
18,645
Reaction score
44,270
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
I'd keep an eye on the d7 plus period when the ridge really builds over the SW Atlantic and into the gulf. It's a decent setup to trap some upper level energy or an old upper low/mcv that might try to cause some tropical mischief
 

Myfrotho704_

Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
22,418
Reaction score
50,943
Location
Concord NC
I'd keep an eye on the d7 plus period when the ridge really builds over the SW Atlantic and into the gulf. It's a decent setup to trap some upper level energy or an old upper low/mcv that might try to cause some tropical mischief
Barry vibes
 

TateofGA

Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2017
Messages
17
Reaction score
42
Location
Atlanta, GA
“Happy” first official day of the Atlantic Season! I moved to the coast of Florida in October of last year, so this forum will be even more meaningful than in times past. Thanks in advance for the great discussion and analysis from everyone over the next few months — it’s genuinely appreciated, especially for those like me who are still learning the ropes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Shawn

Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Tech
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
6,767
Reaction score
7,370
Location
KCAE

ontherocks

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2017
Messages
193
Reaction score
377
Location
Northeast Georgia; Elevation: 1430
Thanks, I participated and I must say, I like the hazard/track/cone graphics combined in one they showed off. Much better than multiple maps to convey the same message.
Agreed, multiple maps seems overall backtracking for conveying important info, but also of course, it is important/needed for something to reflect hazard vs simply track.
 

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
7,856
Reaction score
13,953
Location
Tulsa Oklahoma
two_atl_5d0 (1).png


An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,672
Reaction score
6,768
View attachment 84933


An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Believe it or not I'm ready to track something
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,672
Reaction score
6,768
Can't believe there's no talk in here. We are a few days out from having a TC in the gulf. Models are shifting east towards LA/MS/Al
 

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
7,856
Reaction score
13,953
Location
Tulsa Oklahoma
92L_gefs_latest.png
An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
 

Snowfan

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,497
Reaction score
4,082
Location
Not telling
View attachment 85250
An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Wouldn’t be surprised if a invest gets designated in the next 24-48 hours.
 
Top