The 2 AM TWO did raise TC genesis chances from 10% to 20%. At another BB that I'm a member of (tropical emphasis), one person thinks that this is likely already closed at the surface and thus has a decent chance to be called a TD as early as 11 AM Sun if convection remains. However, this person had said similar things about many disturbances that don't ever become TCs. So, I'm watching but I am taking him with a grain. Satellite loops do suggest there may be a pretty low level closed circ., but it is hard to tell from IR.
My current thinking: any potential center will most likely come in somewhere between SAV and CHS on Monday afternoon. It will come in most likely either as a pretty wet/strong tropical wave or TD. Only a minimal chance for a low end TS as of now. Regardless, the main effect will likely be heavy rainfall with gusty winds in portions of SE GA and lower SC Monday from numerous tropical showers and a few TS. Expect a windy day along the coast, especially in SC. It should be gone from the area by Mon night.
From NWS CHS:
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TROPICAL WAVE
HEADING WEST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY, WHICH HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. WHETHER THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST). HIGHER-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY, AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE GA COAST, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AROUND THE MID DAY HIGH
TIDE.