• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

2021 hurricane season thread

Cary_Snow95

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
1,614
Reaction score
1,436
Location
Wake County
To get as far west as us you'd need something like this where the ridge center poking into the NE coast by its far enough north a system can gain latitude View attachment 85845

For the coastal scrapers you'd likely have the ridge farther SE and the trough closer over the main land and to get something that crosses the FL east coast into the gulf that ridge is typically centered near or over us
Ahh okay that’s a great explanation, thanks man. So for instance if 95L developed (would be on this blue dot) this look would favor a scraper? Or would this trough instill a more easterly flow and force a recurve
 

Attachments

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
19,161
Reaction score
46,055
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Ahh okay that’s a great explanation, thanks man. So for instance if 95L developed (would be on this blue dot) this look would favor a scraper? Or would this trough instill a more easterly flow and force a recurve
Would be hard to imagine that set up bringing much here but S fl and the FL gulf side would be in trouble. After that it would probably go ots. It would really depend on how wick quick the trough lifts and the subtropical ridge builds back. We would really have to wait to be honest since we have moving parts
 

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
7,964
Reaction score
14,277
Location
Tulsa Oklahoma
This is not good.
Nor is the fact were ahead of last year technically...

You know if Elsa becomes a hurricane(questionable but not impossible) we'll be even more ahead of last year. Hanna was the first hurricane the last week of July
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,713
Reaction score
6,819
Don't know if anyone has been paying attention, gefs has been showing a few frames of something coming up from the Caribbean into the gulf in the mid range. Anyone see that?
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,713
Reaction score
6,819
Screenshot_20210710-194521_Chrome.jpg May not mean much, but this is the time frame I was talking about, something tries.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
19,161
Reaction score
46,055
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Yeah not much noise in the models through the next couple of weeks. Should be quiet unless we get a homegrown in the next 10 days. I figure by late July we should start to see more storms showing up in long range modeling.
That front over the weekend into next week probably gets something going but I'd guess it's ots unless something weird happens
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
13,854
Reaction score
43,664
Location
Desert Southwest 🌵
I just plotted the latest IMME ensemble mean 500mb anomaly forecast for ASO w/ a global mean removed (Those + height anomalies are actually twice as large in the raw data)

Probably the ugliest looking steering pattern you could possibly ask for at the peak of the hurricane season

 

Shaggy

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Messages
6,463
Reaction score
9,847
Location
Greenville,nc
I just plotted the latest IMME ensemble mean 500mb anomaly forecast for ASO w/ a global mean removed (Those + height anomalies are actually twice as large in the raw data)

Probably the ugliest looking steering pattern you could possibly ask for at the peak of the hurricane season

Ouch. Hope that's wrong. Interestingly today Dr Knapp was highlighting the likelihood of many more US landfalls because of steering so it makes me wonder if they had seen this as well.
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
13,854
Reaction score
43,664
Location
Desert Southwest 🌵
Ouch. Hope that's wrong. Interestingly today Dr Knapp was highlighting the likelihood of many more US landfalls because of steering so it makes me wonder if they had seen this as well.
This is what Hurricane Hugo's steering pattern looked like fwiw. Point is, that 500mb pattern is ugly

compday.p9_UTu4Bhc.gif
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
4,010
Reaction score
6,878
Location
Greenville NC
This is what Hurricane Hugo's steering pattern looked like fwiw. Point is, that 500mb pattern is ugly

View attachment 86581
Those ULL over the lower Miss Valley also play into the big hits....helps to keep canes strong and sustainable on a due NW or NNW heading a la Hugo and Fran...bringing the core winds well inland....
 

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
1,180
Reaction score
2,469
Location
Wingate, NC
Those ULL over the lower Miss Valley also play into the big hits....helps to keep canes strong and sustainable on a due NW or NNW heading a la Hugo and Fran...bringing the core winds well inland....
That’s is true. They also can help to bring in a lot of moisture out well ahead of the storm. One of the effects of Hugo that was forgotten was the flooding rains that came in starting about 18 hours before landfall along the Savannah River…. many areas in southern SC and southeast GA saw as much 10-12 inches of rain before the storm even came ashore
 
Top