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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Avalanche said:
I know its early, but usually don't we see waves off of Cape Verde by this time?
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One actually moved off the other day but has since dissipated. We’re about a week to 10 days until the activity over Africa really starts to ramp up which will coincide with the Saharan dust moving on from the tropical Atlantic. I think 2 weeks from now, things will be starting to get busy
 
Todays Lemon Report:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coasts of
southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development over the weekend and into early next week while the
system drifts offshore of the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
 
Looks like a couple really long range gefs members have a system in the SW Atlantic at the end of the run
 

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06z gfs has the longest and strongest sustained system of the last few runs. Holds it together longer this run. We will see how the rest of the goes.
 
SD said:
Yeah it's not a ton of support but with the mjo getting into p1-2 there's a little support. The mjo cycle is similar to where we saw Elsa form last month just a little less amplitude
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Doesn’t mean much but it’s interesting the only member with anything wants to threaten the Carolina coast . I mean it’s nuts to me everything is literally aligned as bad / good as possible for the highest possible chances you can get for a hurricane strike on the Carolina coast / SE . 1999 to the end I guess ! Perhaps means a Jan 2000?
 
Lickwx said:
Doesn’t mean much but it’s interesting the only member with anything wants to threaten the Carolina coast . I mean it’s nuts to me everything is literally aligned as bad / good as possible for the highest possible chances you can get for a hurricane strike on the Carolina coast / SE . 1999 to the end I guess ! Perhaps means a Jan 2000?
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You know a winter like ‘99-‘00 would most of us in the Carolinas very happy. We all got in on a 10-15 day stretch of cold and multiple winter weather hits and the warm weather fans still get to end up with a winter that’s predominantly mild.
 
It's going to pop off very soon. I've lived close to the beach for the past 8 years, and I've never seen weeks of variable winds winds with days or hours of calms winds. Every day, temperatures reach the low to mid-90s with dew points of 73-80 degrees with daytimes thunderstorms that produce more power outages than widespread rain. I've not seen the Sarahan Dust haze up the sky this year. Water Temps along the shelfs of SE FL to the Caribbean and Central America are ridiculous. Two buoys off Miami are ranging between 87.8 and 92.5 degrees. National Weather Services from the Gulf to Puerto Rico are telling the same tale. The Western Atlantic Basin is already juiced up and will continue to warm for another week. Check out the TCHP. The early signals from this year look like a combination of 2008, 1996, 2017, 2004, and 1981. Some of those years even had an above average monsoon in the SW, which I don't think anybody expected.

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