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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

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An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
View attachment 84933


An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Believe it or not I'm ready to track something
 
Can't believe there's no talk in here. We are a few days out from having a TC in the gulf. Models are shifting east towards LA/MS/Al
 
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An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
 
View attachment 85250
An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Wouldn’t be surprised if a invest gets designated in the next 24-48 hours.
 
So a few members develop it. Gfs has 51 members? Seems like past the islands there’s gonna be quite a bit of shear. Maybe a quick spin up before then tho
Nah gfs is like 12 euro is 51.

The Euro actually has a weak reflection
ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_7.png
 
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