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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Chazwin said:
Doing some research I found that the 1902 season only had 5 known storm, but 3 of those were landfalls on the Gulf coast. There were only two know storms in the Caribbean and both of those went well well east of Bermuda. Obviously being 1902 there were at least a few more fish storms that weren’t observed by shipping. Perhaps the volcanic dust in the atmosphere could have an impact on development... we know from recent years that development has been slow during times of increased Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic.
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Interestingly enough the 1902 eruption was in early May so the timing is only a few weeks different....this is pretty cool and if from yesterday.....if you look close you can see the shock waves moving out in the surrounding cloud field.....or at least I think I can see that...

 
"NHC is again partnering with NOAA’s Southeast and Caribbean Regional Collaboration Team (SECART) to offer a series of hurricane-related webinars prior to the start of the 2021 hurricane season. The series will begin on May 3rd with a presentation by NHC Director Ken Graham on the record setting 2020 hurricane season. He will be joined by USAID’s Tim Callaghan who will discuss the USAID response in Central America to Hurricanes Eta and Iota, and Roger Erikson of WFO Lake Charles who will talk about the impacts of the 2020 season in southwestern Louisiana."


Additional webinars will be conducted on May 10 (in Spanish), May 17, May 24, May 27, and June 3 on a variety of hurricane-related topics. Please see this link for additional information:


https://www.noaa.gov/regions/2021-hurricane-awareness-webinars


The webinars are open to the general public
 
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Those who like Active Hurricane Seasons also like convective forcing over Africa. Only blemish on this CanSIPS map is that little area in the EastPac.
 

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I know this is not the Atlantic but the Eastern Pacific could see a early season tropical cyclone.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071500
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is possible during the
next few days, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 PM PDT this evening, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png
Here we go
 
Ana is coming



A non-tropical low pressure system located about 650 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is now moving northward, and recent satellite
wind data indicate that the system has gale-force winds. The low
is expected to turn westward and west-southwestward over warmer
waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical
cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. After that
time, the system is expected to move toward the north and northeast
into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more
information on this developing low pressure area, please see High
Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and
forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
This may need to be watched too some of the models are showing something trying to develop and headed for areas that do not need more rain in TX LA1000x1000.jpg
 
JakkelWx said:
Not sure how I'll deal with hurricane season as a new resident of southern Florida.
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I live right next to Davie in Cooper City (Formally part of Pembroke Pines) near North Perry Airport in Hollywood. Went to Nova Law. Hurricane Season is a very fun time for weather weenies. If you're living in Davie, you don't need to worry about storm surge. Also, flooding isn't really a big concern, unless you live in a flood zone near the canal, or drove into deep water. The ground is flat, so there aren't a lot of opportunities for fast moving water to inundate an area without advanced warning. The real issue is preparing to lose power for two to three weeks. I actually moved to a house on the same grid as the hospital, and there's another hospital along University. Power returns within 24-48 hours.

Davie is actually a good area to catch the very few severe weather events that occur. I've actually seen a tornado and a bunch of funnel clouds from my backyard, and I've actually driven my golf cart to get a better vantage point cause my head is just a bag of rocks. These are EF0 and 1 tornadoes. We don't get enough synoptic forcing for severe events, but weak tornadoes tend to quickly spin-up and die-out when were on the dirty side of the storm ala Irma. If a winter time storm actually provides the forcing for a severe event, then anticipate 60-70 MPH gusts and an easy 4-8" of rain. But significantly less for Miami. There was one event in December of 2019 that dumped 10" of rain in 90 minutes.

Keep an eye out this season. Just based on my experience, the weather pattern or trends from March to June really can clue you into the hurricane season. I actually learned this from a few 30+ year natives from Florida and Cuba that went to law school with me, so it's not scientific. For example, If the observations and synoptic set-up over the Spring and early Summer is strongly El Nino or La Nina, then it's a pretty good bet that a neutral pattern will bear out the same results. But it only takes one. Hurricane Andrew occurred during a La Nina. If your 36 hours out from a storm like that one, and it's not slowing down, then I'd run. Well not me. I'd stay, but you get it. If it's slowing down, then it's probably going out to see after blowing up the Bahamas.
 
Brent said:
This may need to be watched too some of the models are showing something trying to develop and headed for areas that do not need more rain in TX LAView attachment 84160
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I just mentioned something about this in the May thread. This certainly looks to have a little potential if it’s over water long enough. The Euro is wanting to develop it into a TS in the next 24-48 hrs. The question might be is it going to develop a closed circulation
 
And so it begins. The crayon box has been opened.
 

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SD said:
Am I the only person that thinks advances in technology and increases in the need for public awareness is leading to more names.

Fire away I'm sure this will cause a ruckus
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This is absolutely true. Obviously we can see a lot more with satellites than can be seen prior when the only way we knew there were storms were from ships at sea, and that would only be known if a storm was affecting the shipping lanes. Even still, I’ve seen several systems get named over the last few years that would never have been named 20 years ago.
 
Arcc said:
After the pitiful excuses I’ve seen called TCs over the past few years, absolutely no.
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The NHC started naming subtropical cyclones in 2002, and I don't think they do the same in any other basin. To suggest that the criteria for naming storms has not changed is just dishonest.

The other criteria that has changed due to the advent of new technology and more frequent HH missions is that Tropical Storms needed to sustain convection and hold a close low for 12-24 hours. We've all seen names for storms that sustain Tropical Storm or Depression criteria for less than 6 or 12 hours. For example, sometimes an open, broad low near the Gulf Coast will quickly close-up as it's influenced by a weak cold front, and then disintegrate as it's dragged off to the NE. Sometimes it's legitimate, but sometimes it's embarrassing.
 
The Wet Season has been delayed in S. Florida, resulting in one of the nicest Mays I’ve experienced since 2017. The month was dominated by comfy dew points and breezy weather. Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach only received 2.05” and .65” of rain for the month. The rainfall departures have been around 2.5-5” throughout S. FL. Most stations average around 5-6” for the month. Our luck with dry weather seems to have run out with dry weather.

I mention this because many people with 30+ years in S. Florida have adamantly expressed to me that there’s a much greater chance of MH impacts this year due to the dry condition in May. One of my friends from Law School recently told me that S. Florida has a 60% chance of receiving MH impacts this year. It seems hokey, but he mentioned the dry-may correlation in 2017 before Irma rolled through the straights. Does anyone know if there’s scientific data supporting this assertion?

In any event, GFS been showing development of TC moving through Northern Caribbean and Straights of Florida into the Gulf around 10-12th of June.

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I'd keep an eye on the d7 plus period when the ridge really builds over the SW Atlantic and into the gulf. It's a decent setup to trap some upper level energy or an old upper low/mcv that might try to cause some tropical mischief
 
SD said:
I'd keep an eye on the d7 plus period when the ridge really builds over the SW Atlantic and into the gulf. It's a decent setup to trap some upper level energy or an old upper low/mcv that might try to cause some tropical mischief
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Barry vibes
 
“Happy” first official day of the Atlantic Season! I moved to the coast of Florida in October of last year, so this forum will be even more meaningful than in times past. Thanks in advance for the great discussion and analysis from everyone over the next few months — it’s genuinely appreciated, especially for those like me who are still learning the ropes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
Thanks, I participated and I must say, I like the hazard/track/cone graphics combined in one they showed off. Much better than multiple maps to convey the same message.
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Agreed, multiple maps seems overall backtracking for conveying important info, but also of course, it is important/needed for something to reflect hazard vs simply track.
 
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