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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

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An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Brent said:
View attachment 84933


An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
Believe it or not I'm ready to track something
 
Can't believe there's no talk in here. We are a few days out from having a TC in the gulf. Models are shifting east towards LA/MS/Al
 
92L_gefs_latest.png
An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
 
Brent said:
View attachment 85250
An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Click to expand...
Wouldn’t be surprised if a invest gets designated in the next 24-48 hours.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
So a few members develop it. Gfs has 51 members? Seems like past the islands there’s gonna be quite a bit of shear. Maybe a quick spin up before then tho
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Nah gfs is like 12 euro is 51.

The Euro actually has a weak reflection
ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_7.png
 
Snowfan said:
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It’s still June after all. Main differences between the euro and the gfs right now are the gfs brings the vort Max north quicker and in turn brings it over cooler SSTs and drier air sooner. This hinders developments and ultimately leads to it dying out in the MDR. The euro keeps the vort Max wrapped up and consolidates quicker. This keeps the vort Max south and over Warmer SSTs. We will know a lot by Saturday imo. Right now though all models agree with the gfs except for the euro
 
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Cary_Snow95 said:
Pretty irresponsible tweet on Ryan’s part. Sees one run and starts the hype machine. It’s still June after all. Main differences between the euro and the gfs right now are the gfs brings the vort Max north quicker and in turn brings it over cooler SSTs and drier air sooner. This hinders developments and ultimately leads to it dying out in the MDR. The euro keeps the vort Max wrapped up and consolidates quicker. This keeps the vort Max south and over Warmer SSTs. We will know a lot by Saturday imo. Right now though all models agree with the gfs except for the euro
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I dont know i mean maybe some words could have been different but he had a whole thread about it and said it was nothing to worry about for now … also he is looking at the ensemble members for the euro and the fact that it had sooo much strong support from them makes it at least watch worthy … didn’t see last nights run though so maybe they backed off who knows.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I dont know i mean maybe some words could have been different but he had a whole thread about it and said it was nothing to worry about for now … also he is looking at the ensemble members for the euro and the fact that it had sooo much strong support from them makes it at least watch worthy … didn’t see last nights run though so maybe they backed off who knows.
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00z EPS backed way off. Mixture of weak members and no development
 
Looks like a little swirl spin is getting close to South Carolina and it looks like the NHC is now watching it for tropical development .. only 10% but those always have to be closely watched … I’ll be staying in isle of palms for the next week which is close to Charleston SC so I’ll be in the hot zone for possible impacts .. I’ll keep y’all updated and maybe a thread for that down the road?
 
Looks like a couple more waves after 95L are on the way. EPS seems to be overly enthusiastic about the next wave. It’s going nuts which is almost definitely overdone. If anything does develop the next 10 days though it seems to my amateur eye that it would likely be a GOM threat with the upper air pattern. Would love for someone else to chime in and see what they think. Seems like a big High over the Atlantic strengthens during the next week shunting everything south of Hispaniola
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Looks like a little swirl spin is getting close to South Carolina and it looks like the NHC is now watching it for tropical development .. only 10% but those always have to be closely watched … I’ll be staying in isle of palms for the next week which is close to Charleston SC so I’ll be in the hot zone for possible impacts .. I’ll keep y’all updated and maybe a thread for that down the road?
Click to expand...

This should come into the upper FL/GA/SC coast late Monday as essentially an easterly wave. This will enhance tropical showers as well as some TS activity Mon as it heads inland.
 
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The 2 AM TWO did raise TC genesis chances from 10% to 20%. At another BB that I'm a member of (tropical emphasis), one person thinks that this is likely already closed at the surface and thus has a decent chance to be called a TD as early as 11 AM Sun if convection remains. However, this person had said similar things about many disturbances that don't ever become TCs. So, I'm watching but I am taking him with a grain. Satellite loops do suggest there may be a pretty low level closed circ., but it is hard to tell from IR.

My current thinking: any potential center will most likely come in somewhere between SAV and CHS on Monday afternoon. It will come in most likely either as a pretty wet/strong tropical wave or TD. Only a minimal chance for a low end TS as of now. Regardless, the main effect will likely be heavy rainfall with gusty winds in portions of SE GA and lower SC Monday from numerous tropical showers and a few TS. Expect a windy day along the coast, especially in SC. It should be gone from the area by Mon night.

From NWS CHS:
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TROPICAL WAVE
HEADING WEST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY, WHICH HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. WHETHER THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST). HIGHER-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY, AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE GA COAST, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AROUND THE MID DAY HIGH
TIDE.
 
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GaWx said:
The 2 AM TWO did raise TC genesis chances from 10% to 20%. At another BB that I'm a member of (tropical emphasis), one person thinks that this is likely already closed at the surface and thus has a decent chance to be called a TD as early as 11 AM Sun if convection remains. However, this person had said similar things about many disturbances that don't ever become TCs. So, I'm watching but I am taking him with a grain. Satellite loops do suggest there may be a pretty low level closed circ., but it is hard to tell from IR.

My current thinking: any potential center will most likely come in somewhere between SAV and CHS on Monday afternoon. It will come in most likely either as a pretty wet/strong tropical wave or TD. Only a minimal chance for a low end TS as of now. Regardless, the main effect will likely be heavy rainfall with gusty winds in portions of SE GA and lower SC Monday from numerous tropical showers and a few TS. Expect a windy day along the coast, especially in SC. It should be gone from the area by Mon night.

From NWS CHS:
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TROPICAL WAVE
HEADING WEST TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY, WHICH HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. WHETHER THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST). HIGHER-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY, AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE GA COAST, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AROUND THE MID DAY HIGH
TIDE.
Click to expand...
Fire up the thread!
 
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euro now developing the wave behind 95L. Can someone explain steering currents to me a bit. Didn’t know what threat to post in. Given a building Atlantic high where would this wave likely be steered. I’ve been trying to better my knowledge at upper air patterns for tropics this year. With a building high and an incoming trough on the EC what’s likely?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
View attachment 85835
euro now developing the wave behind 95L. Can someone explain steering currents to me a bit. Didn’t know what threat to post in. Given a building Atlantic high where would this wave likely be steered. I’ve been trying to better my knowledge at upper air patterns for tropics this year. With a building high and an incoming trough on the EC what’s likely?
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That wave would be central/west gulf or Mexico the trough in the east should be lifting.

Outside chance the trough lingers and it hooks I suppose but it would be difficult
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Typically at 500mb what would you see for an EC threat?
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To get as far west as us you'd need something like this where the ridge center poking into the NE coast by its far enough north a system can gain latitude gfs_z500_vort_atl_1.png

For the coastal scrapers you'd likely have the ridge farther SE and the trough closer over the main land and to get something that crosses the FL east coast into the gulf that ridge is typically centered near or over us
 
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