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July Fry 2021

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Sleet City USA said:
It’s the HRRR dude lol. Haven’t we been talking about how it sucks at initializing? Not to say this will or won’t happen tho
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Gonna be some weak energy flowing aloft at H5 but the ridge is gonna poke in a bit more/act as a S/W ridge which could overall suppress coverage, maybe some stuff later wrt the sea breeze boundary itself for any chances for us
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Also the hrrr showed good coverage for today with yesterday’s runs then backed off, and it did the same exact thing yesterday with 12z/18z/00z model runs on Saturday
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Seems like the HRRR underperformed in my neck of the woods yesterday with the coverage being much much more than the HRRR showed, and honestly thats kind of common with the HRRR....still mostly dry is a safe bet for most of us this week.....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Must be nice to live at a cheat code for storms ?
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Honestly it is pretty cool, my porch faces east and many afternoons I watch them go up over the sounds.....honestly though it is not to to common to get the storms this far inland though we do get the outflow/sea breeze itself which can make porch sittin much more tolerable after a 90+ degree afternoon.
 
Avalanche said:
No, probably be Coats, Lillington, Fuquay. You'll get to see them, just won't be able to benefit from them. You do need the rain as I've seen many dodge your location. Your buddy 10 miles down the street is probably complaining from so much rain.
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It's amazing how much standing water there is east of Lillington
 
Avalanche said:
Bob Debarbaladen over at WRAL years ago would refer to any August day as "dog days". Of course, I doubt he even knew the origin, and it was back in the mid 80's.
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Nice. I remember watching Bob. I miss Greg Fishel, but he's back in NC now, so maybe he'll pop back up somewhere.

I will continue to refer to the period of July through early September as the dog days if they are got and humid. I really hate this time of year.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CFS model already shows a dominating -NAO for most of next winter lol
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I'm OK with that. As bad as last year was I'll still roll the dice with a -NAO any year. We need Pac help to get the source region cold enough of course. We kind of need both which almost never happens though. A great Pac and ample cold is mostly always wasted by a bad storm track without NAO help.
 
The next two or three winters are “put up or shut up” time. I don’t intend to spend the rest of my life wishing/hoping only for it to never be.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 86436View attachment 86437View attachment 86438
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In all seriousness basically we need a -NAO to have a good shot at at least a decent pattern (doesn’t mean we get snow just gives us a solid pattern to receive something) maybe our long streak of no -NAO has ended and we get repaid with more -NAO winters now ? Who knows though .. I’ll bank on another Texas pattern and roll the dice that the SE gets the brunt next winter .. but of course that’s the ? in me
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CFS model already shows a dominating -NAO for most of next winter lol
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It’s drizzling. Did I do something wrong? Feels like a troll
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Maybe by the end of July the corners region of the SW can get some monsoon rains, and then some pacific storms to slam the NW in the fall. Really worried about their heat and drought thus far.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nice. I remember watching Bob. I miss Greg Fishel, but he's back in NC now, so maybe he'll pop back up somewhere.

I will continue to refer to the period of July through early September as the dog days if they are got and humid. I really hate this time of year.
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I don't care about a definition. Dog Days of summer are when there's no breeze and dews in the 70's. Dog days.
 
Seabreeze doing its work. Any outflow ahead of that west is welcome. Coats and Lillington about to get it again today. Rich get richer. Drought get drier.
 
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

NCZ040>042-076-077-088-089-122000-
Lee NC-Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
Cumberland NC-
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
SAMPSON... HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN
LEE...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles east of Sanford
to 6 miles southwest of Lillington to near Fayetteville. Movement
was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 or 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Fayetteville, Cary, Lillington, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Dunn,
Angier, Benson and Godwin.
 
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