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July Fry 2021

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Well hello there! Where the warning for this at?


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Winds gusts to at least 60 briefly here in Liberty sc. and we didn’t get a warning in this part of Pickens county


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Nothing crazy but the eps starts getting a little warm past D10. The mean is only around 90 but starting to see some 95-97s. Doubt that we get an intense heatwave but with the way the ridge in the west gets squeezed might have a hot day or 2 mixed in with a lot of average to below.

If you loop the gefs 850mb T anomalies you can see how the heat gets pushed into the SE on the NW flow even with a troughed look in the E

Just a last edit the geps doesn't have the heat push and continues to keep the south normal to below
 
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SD said:
Nothing crazy but the eps starts getting a little warm past D10. The mean is only around 90 but starting to see some 95-97s. Doubt that we get an intense heatwave but with the way the ridge in the west gets squeezed might have a hot day or 2 mixed in with a lot of average to below.

If you loop the gefs 850mb T anomalies you can see how the heat gets pushed into the SE on the NW flow even with a troughed look in the E

Just a last edit the geps doesn't have the heat push and continues to keep the south normal to below
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Could that be a set up that gives us a good NW flow MCS threat?
 
Chazwin said:
Could that be a set up that gives us a good NW flow MCS threat?
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This isn't a terrible look but the better height and theta-e gradient is to our north so the more organized stuff may miss us. This is a pretty classic piedmont trough, sea breeze, sandhills, convection look with random shear axis moving through
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SD said:
This isn't a terrible look but the better height and theta-e gradient is to our north so the more organized stuff may miss us. This is a pretty classic piedmont trough, sea breeze, sandhills, convection look with random shear axis moving through
View attachment 86498
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I would love to see at least a few decent MCS's this summer but I am okay with this setup too. We can get some decent boomers with wet microburst.
 
ryan1234 said:
I would love to see at least a few decent MCS's this summer but I am okay with this setup too. We can get some decent boomers with wet microburst.
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Yeah I miss mcs. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we tried to get a mcs like complex going late this weekend into early next week especially if we can get a little bit stronger energy to dive toward the arklatex and keep the flow W-E. Euro backed off slightly at 0z.

Want this stronger to the west and weaker over us otherwise it's a front passage
gfs_z500_vort_us_25 (3).png
 
We’re having our daily dose of thunderstorms a bit early today. It has rained just about every day for the last 8 days going back to the day before Elsa hit. Total rainfall from all of this is in the 6-7” range, which already exceeds the average for the entire month. I won’t need to irrigate my lawns anytime soon. Lawns throughout the area are looking good with more frequent mowing needed due to the faster growth.
 
J.C. said:
What is so impressive is the fact that there are 37 years where KATL has had 12 or fewer days at or above 90 through July since 1879. I wonder what the winter months were like following those 37 summers.
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I just finished the research. There’s no correlation to winter temperatures as it was a perfect balance between mild, normal, and cold. The lean is not surprisingly toward cold when just looking at El Niño as more of the cold winters following cool summers were El Niño winters vs other categories and more were mild when just looking at La Niña, which is where we’re likely headed. If we’re going to get the expected La Niña and you want a cold winter, your best hope is to have a weak La Niña to give the best shot at it as moderate to strong (say, -0.9 C or colder trimonthly Niño 3.4 peak) tend to favor mild SE winters. Weak La Niña is more up in the air.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Latitude makes a difference too. Is elevation more important than latitude ?
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In this case yes. If you look at average summertime temps for ATL they are pretty much the same. But the northern burbs tend to be cooler than KTLA which is south of Atlanta and happens to be the main weather station the Metro area.
 
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