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The June Thread 2021

It may be time to write off the tropical system for most of NC and upstate SC. Models trending south with it. The cold front may not be much help either. This weekend and all of next week may be almost completely dry for many of us.
 
Not seeing it in lawns here yet but did notice it in some corn fields yesterday. The corn stalk leaves are starting to curl again during heat of the day, it's actually a natural water conservation mode the plant goes into if moisture content is low.

And for those that don't believe me..... lol


At the end of May our cornstalks around here were still only about a foot high. They are now 6 foot tall and looking good. I know the farmers are happy.
 
Looks like maybe a few storms along the leading edge of the moisture surge tomorrow afternoon
3k refl.png
Well short of the near 100 the Euro had
3k temps.png
ndfd temps
ndfd temps.png

But the Euro is still stradfast on 95+
sfct.us_ma (32).png
 
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At the end of May our cornstalks around here were still only about a foot high. They are now 6 foot tall and looking good. I know the farmers are happy.
My corn is about 2 ft and starting to tassel. Less than ideal but I'm going to have a bumper crop of watermelon and cucumbers
 
Looks like maybe a few storms along the leading edge of the moisture surge tomorrow afternoon
View attachment 85473
Well short of the near 100 the Euro had
View attachment 85474
ndfd temps
View attachment 85475

But the Euro is still stradfast on 95+
View attachment 85476
Yeah I’m not buying into this type of heat tomorrow anymore. It looks winds will be from the SW as opposed to the WSW it was showing yesterday. This should mean a quicker moisture return and more clouds tomorrow afternoon. Most forecasts for CLT are now down to 91-93 tomorrow
 
I be we get clouds and moisture in earlier than expected. WOuldn't surprise me if places in Georgia and Western SC don't hit 90 at all saturday.
I’m honestly beginning to wonder if CLT might stay below 90 tomorrow. The NWS forecast high for tomorrow has dropped from 98 on Wednesday PM update to 92 on this morning’s. In fact looking at dewpoints already starting to creep back up just to the south
 
Almost never the entire run do we have major ridging over us … too beautiful
It makes you wonder if this is just simply the overall primary set up for us to expect this summer. I’m not in anyway saying we avoid our normal heat and humidity, but certainly it seems like it would be hard to experience long stretches of 95+ degree heat with little storm chances. Also it would make sense now that Niña has broken down and we go further into a neutral ENSO.
 
It makes you wonder if this is just simply the overall primary set up for us to expect this summer. I’m not in anyway saying we avoid our normal heat and humidity, but certainly it seems like it would be hard to experience long stretches of 95+ degree heat with little storm chances. Also it would make sense now that Niña has broken down and we go further into a neutral ENSO.

The west just gets pounded with constant death ridges forming on top of them. A painful drought gets even more painful for them. It'll likely be an average summer temperature wise for the Southeast.
 
The west just gets pounded with constant death ridges forming on top of them. A painful drought gets even more painful for them. It'll likely be an average summer temperature wise for the Southeast.

It may not happen this warm season, but eventually, that heat from the drought stricken region in the SW will be released eastward via. a positive feedback loop (similar to the 2010 - 2012 period).

Best prepare yourselves.
 
It may not happen this warm season, but eventually, that heat from the drought stricken region in the SW will be released eastward via. a positive feedback loop (similar to the 2010 - 2012 period).

Best prepare yourselves.
The thing about that period is that we entering into a very strong 2 year LaNina in which the second year is already generally very mild in the East. Now we appear to heading to a fairly extended neutral ENSO. This should get the STJ very active as we get later into the fall and give the west some serious drought relief and a strong STJ during the fall and winter also helps to mute the SER.
 
It may not happen this warm season, but eventually, that heat from the drought stricken region in the SW will be released eastward via. a positive feedback loop (similar to the 2010 - 2012 period).

Best prepare yourselves.
2016 and 2017 had that happen somewhat. Summer 2016 was brutal.
 
It may not happen this warm season, but eventually, that heat from the drought stricken region in the SW will be released eastward via. a positive feedback loop (similar to the 2010 - 2012 period).

Best prepare yourselves.
Itll happen before summer ends and we will have a 3-5 day period of near 100
 
@NickyBGuarantee I see you gave my post a huh. Watch how the higher 850s get squeezed out in front of the next trough on the Euro. Eventually these aren't going to dig as much and more heat will be directed into the region ahead of a trough moving from the lakes into the NE and we will get some of that stuffecmwf_T850_us_fh144-240.gif
 
@NickyBGuarantee I see you gave my post a huh. Watch how the higher 850s get squeezed out in front of the next trough on the Euro. Eventually these aren't going to dig as much and more heat will be directed into the region ahead of a trough moving from the lakes into the NE and we will get some of that stuffView attachment 85530
I see what you’re saying here .. I just don’t think there’s going to be enough juice to get us a 3-5 days period of triple digits! That stuff is hard to do at any given year.. models have shown to be too hot with heat in the past too so I just don’t see a period of 100+ heat in the near future .. especially with ridging dominating out west and we get a constant barrage of troughs and thunderstorms to help us stay cooler than most …. Let’s see how it goes though
 
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I see what you’re saying here .. I just don’t think there’s going to be enough juice to get us a 3-5 days period of triple digits! That stuff is hard to do at any given year.. models have shown to be too hot with heat in the past too so I just don’t see a period of 100+ heat in the near future .. especially with ridging dominating out west and we get a constant barrage of troughs and thunderstorms to help us stay cooler than most …. Let’s see how it goes though
I'd have to check with @Lickwx but I believe one of the heat waves in the last decade was a SW heat release
 
I'd have to check with @Lickwx but I believe one of the heat waves in the last decade was a SW heat release
Heat wave of July 20- august 14 1999 is a perfect example of that.


July 20 to August 14, 1999

Blistering heat developed across the Carolinas during this final heat wave of the 20th century. During this event, the upper level ridge developed across the lower Mississippi Valley and retreated for a time into the Southwestern United States, a position farther west than is typically observed during our worst heat waves. The airmass was still exceptionally hot, and with westerly downsloping winds over the Appalachians, temperatures reached 108 in Hartsville and Cades, SC. The 105 degree temperatures that developed in Charleston, SC on August 1st broke the all-time record for heat in that coastal city. Temperatures also reached 105 in Orangeburg and Newberry, SC. In Kingstree, SC temperatures reached or exceeded 100 degrees for 10 consecutive days from July 24th through August 2nd.

In addition to very hot daytime highs, overnight lows were exceedingly warm during this heat wave; Sullivans Island, SC recorded a daily low temperature of 84 degrees on August 1st! Wilmington, NC's high and low temperatures of 103 and 83 degrees on August 1st average out to 93 degrees -- the warmest average daily temperature in the Port City's history. Charleston, SC also had its hottest average temperature in history on August 1st, 93 degrees, after a high and low measured at the airport of 105 and 81, respectively. The downtown weather station at the harbor in Charleston had a morning low of 86 degrees that same day, the warmest ever recorded there.

The Mt. Mitchell, NC weather station, at 6,240 feet elevation, reached 81 degrees on August 1st and established a new all-time high temperature for that location.

This heat wave also affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States. Temperatures exceeded 100 degrees from Richmond, VA through Baltimore and into Newark, NJ.



@SD this map looks exactly like the one you posted from the models where you suggested more heat release!

1624120751514.gif
 
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