Brent
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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WeatherWatch
Member
Irma will have a wide wind field. Tropical force winds will increase from south to north as Irma makes it's way to the north. So, the chance of tropical force winds will be under 50% but increasing as time goes on. Hurricane force winds will be along the FL coast up to the South Carolina coast. Some weak hurricane force winds are possible inland.
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Wow it's not even forecast to be a major near Savannah. I guess it's possible that Irma never makes landfall as a major. It could have just enough interaction with FL to weaken it significantly yet not make landfall until it gets to GA or SC.
WeatherWatch
Member
Irma is still a powerful hurricane and is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when the time comes of making landfall. Irma has a confined eye, it still has strong circulation.
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Ktlweather
Member
Looks a tick south at 48 hours.
Brent
Member
looks to be a tick west, just barely offshore Miami
mydoortotheworld
Member
Oh yeah no this thing is obviously still a monster and I wouldn't expect it to be anything less than that at the current time. Just noticed slightly warming cloud tops.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Southeast of it's 18z so far at 96 and heading due north at 102
GFS looks a bit east this run..NC heads up!
Cary_Snow95
Member
It's much further off the Florida coast so far and trough over NE is slightly slower
WeatherWatch
Member
There's a ENE wobble at hr 96, it may wobble ENE at times, getting ready to pull WNW or NW into GA/SC.
yup that slower moving trof over NE is def. helping this cut further east.
Brent
Member
much further east with SC landfall, Myrtle Beach vs Hilton Head last run
Cary_Snow95
Member
18z
0z
0z
Cary_Snow95
Member
Much further north landfall... when will we ever have a consensus
Brent
Member
I guess the GFS likes being the eastern outlier
If the UKMET/Euro hold serve I'm going with them lol
If the UKMET/Euro hold serve I'm going with them lol
thanksgivingbrown
Member
Keep it mind that the GFS initialized at 967mb.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Unfortunately no model has been initializing correctly. Euro at 12z initialized at 960. It's quite frustrating
Brent
Member
CMC initialized at 987 mb
Comes close to Miami then goes north
Comes close to Miami then goes north
Cary_Snow95
Member
CMC initialized at 987 mb
Comes close to Miami then goes north
CMC Shifted West meanwhile GFS Shifted East Wow!! Goodnight Y'all Im Stressed!!
Brent
Member
UKMET Is way west actually gets into the Gulf and hits on the SW coast of FL
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49
That’s interesting.
Brent
Member
UKMET plots, white line on the EC Is the prior run
Cary_Snow95
Member
CMC agrees with gfs
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wow Canadian is way west of its 12Z run
Cary_Snow95
Member
to be fair 12z was a way east outlier
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hard to say anything is an outlier when it's not even the same from one run to another.
Cary_Snow95
Member
great point
Brent
Member
the CMC seems like its always one extreme or another, remember the Pensacola run?
Then it had an entirely OTS solution I think
Then it had an entirely OTS solution I think
UKMET plots, white line on the EC Is the prior run
As I said before, possibly most interesting landfall or not in a long time.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Trough is Stronger and Further South!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I saw that. I just tweeted out a similar graphic (giving him credit of course for recognizing this) in that the trough over New England has been progressively slowing down on recent GFS runs. If this trend continues, it could nudge Irma further east than forecast after day 3-4... This could mean a higher probability for a strike on North or South Carolina and it still leaves the door open for a last second OTS route...
VegasEagle
Member
S
So the storm is going to get stuck for a short time?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro is going to be interesting.. that's an understatement
Euro gonna go up the West Coast of Florida and we will be back to square one between GFS and Euro
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