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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Storm5 said:
Live show has been pushed to tomorrow night . Sorry, JB is still tied up . Same time tomorrow night

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:(
 
the winds may be down a bit(earlier the NHC hinted at that), but the pressure is still dropping apparently
 
Pay up! lol
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 0:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°05'N 66°02'W (19.0833N 66.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 47 statute miles (75 km) to the N (2°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,332m (7,651ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 231° at 147kts (From the SW at ~ 169.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 147kts (~ 169.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 23:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 6kts (From the NNW at 7mph)
 
pcbjr said:
East again - will it last? Call me Doubting Thomas ...
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I hoping it goes west or out to sea but nonetheless I'm prepared
a0b004525e1c4d4cf2f742836d2108c6.jpg



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Irma's gaining latitude pretty good atm, I know it's on a wnw motion but almost a little north or wnw... I guess it should bend back west later tonight if not it may pass just north of NHC forecast point. It's minor I know but just observation since I haven't been able to really follow it today, I'm way behind
 
Come on guys there's a banter thread for a reason. ;)

Just catching up but still looks like a South Carolina hit for the GFS? Has anyone looked at the CMC?
 
Brent said:
it seems to me the 0z models shift east and everyone thinks theres an east trend

then the 12z models shift west and everyone thinks theres a west trend

and repeat
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Yeah probably just noise at this point, the wobbles north and south of the eye probably mess them up north and south.
 
CMC initialized at 989 or something like that. I thought that was pretty wild for a fairly reliable model to be off that much.
 
I don't think the CMC is really worth looking at but it was Miami than a North Carolina landfall...big shift from looking completely lost at 0z but it still initialized wrong...but even still I thought it was going to go OTS at first after Miami.
 
NAM stops at 84 and is probably useless after 48 (18z especially) but it looked like it would've been OTS if you continued it or a NC/MA landfall.
 
Thankful if it misses florida and goes east or west. Talk about model madness some people arent even evacuating until friday when the track becomes more certain which is concerning. One hours it is trending east then west. CRAZY
 
Model madness? Nonsense? Too big of a storm for the computers to "understand"? The latter is the answer to the rhetorical question(s) in MHO. But if you want to visualize the confusion, open this link and click days 5, 6, and 7 on each current model (at the top) and hopefully it speaks for itself ... ;)

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
 
stormcentral said:
Thankful if it misses florida and goes east or west. Talk about model madness some people arent even evacuating until friday when the track becomes more certain which is concerning. One hours it is trending east then west. CRAZY
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They are going east and west too much, but I feel that the area they are wobbling is the path. I expect another west shift for the east shifting models at 0z and an east shift for the west shifting models, but I expect the same Miami or not Miami path to the spine of Florida to just offshore to Brunswick to Charleston and at most Myrtle Beach SC.
 
0z models are a tick east...
Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 9.05.23 PM.png

Irma is also tracking about 15-20 miles northeast of its forecast points...
Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.41.19 PM.png

Neither of these trends are good news for the Carolinas... We'll see how this evolves in the next few days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hurricane Irma has been a 185 mph category 5 hurricane for 33 straight hours now, it's the longest lived storm of 160 knots (or greater) in history and its halfway to becoming the longest lived category 5 hurricane on record. Just let all of that sink in
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Webb, It is and thanks!
 
Looks like they are still mostly showing a SE Florida hit and then near the GA/SC border and Charleston. I think if there has been a trend today, that's it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z models are a tick east...
View attachment 1122

Irma is also tracking about 15-20 miles northeast of its forecast points...
View attachment 1123

Neither of these trends are good news for the Carolinas... We'll see how this evolves in the next few days.
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A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
 
ForsythSnow said:
A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
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Yeah it means Irma would stay a category 5 hurricane longer, if it remains a category 5 for another 39 hours it would set a record as the longest lived category 5 on record in the Atlantic, we're already halfway there, unbelievable. Once Irma turns northward it would likely lose some intensity as interacts with an ULL to its west over the mid-south and Gulf coast, which will provide some southwesterly shear that Irma will have to contend with in addition to some dry air that could penetrate the core. Even still, Irma could be a category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Carolinas and GA.
 
SD said:
Where's the milk and bread..... wait wrong season

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Exactly! I have never lost power with any snowstorm or ice storm. I guarantee you if this hurricane hits South Carolina I will be without power for two weeks...


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ForsythSnow said:
A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
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Unlikely it would stay a 5 as it is very tough to stay there this long and encountering some predicted shear by Saturday, plus gaining latitude cools the water a little. If it comes to N SCAR or NC, will like come in as a strong 4 IMO, which is plenty bad enough.
 
MichaelJ said:
Unlikely it would stay a 5 as it is very tough to stay there this long and encountering some predicted shear by Saturday, plus gaining latitude cools the water a little. If it comes to N SCAR or NC, will like come in as a strong 4 IMO, which is plenty bad enough.
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What I meant to say was if the landfall was South Florida. I know it can't remain a 5 beyond there, but the waters are getting warmer the further Irma goes until the Bahamas. After that, it is cooler.
 
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