Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[RollTide18]

I don't like this...I don't like this at all.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Even considering that the pressure is likely overdone a bit and this is still far out in advance and we could still see a lot of shifting, this hurricane is looking scary. They called Harvey a historical event, Irma might be a historical event for the places it hits.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It stalls around Kentucky and would cause a lot of flooding into several states,

That's weird. Usually the further north it goes the faster it accelerates.

 

[Brent]

That's weird. Usually the further north it goes the faster it accelerates.

not if you have a blocking pattern like Harvey

 

[WeatherWatch]

Also, did anyone else notice that the 0z GFS has Irma a sub 900mb over land? Tell the GFS that hurricanes don't strengthen over land. lol. That has to be an error.

 

[Arcc]

Something to ponder, if the ULL doesn't form and capture Irma, it could drift from one end of the GOM to the other. All steering would die.

 

[Taylor]

 

[malak05]

So its showing it 973 mb in extreme North GA. Has a tropical system ever stayed over land for 800 miles and still have a pressure that low ?

I'm gonna easily guess not likely on share MB pressure levels that's still a Cat 1 or low Cat 2 Hurricane... right?

 

[Taylor]

The CFSv2 model has gone from east of Florida to west of Florida.

 

[Arcc]

I'm gonna easily guess not likely on share MB pressure levels that's still a Cat 1 or low Cat 2 Hurricane... right?

The pressure that low is possible. However it is due to deepening as the ULL wraps up, so it would transition to extratropical.

 

[Brent]

the GFS ensembles are all over Florida, only a couple in the Gulf

 

[Arcc]

GEFS mean looks like the OP through 138hrs....

 

[Arcc]

GEFS mean looks like the OP through 138hrs....

West coast of FL at 174hrs. The OP will have tons of support.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Even if the pressure is 30-40 mb higher than 884 it would still be similar to what Andrew was when it hit in 1992.

 

[Brent]

 

[champal3003]

Man, this storm is creeping so too close to comfort.......hopefully these models will shift back east but this westward shift is alarming for sure.

 

[Shawn]

After all, my first prediction map I drew up 2-3 days ago may be right after all.
P.S. I'm not bragging, I'm happy that my prediction map may come true)

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Jesus Christ.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Moving due wnw and coming close to Cuba. I'm not even gonna comment on the insane pressure, it's been a dead horse at this point.

 

[Shawn]

Ryan Maue(sp?) says the new GFS shows about 40 mb lower on those than it should, but even at that it would be a cat 5

He is correct. There are factors that aren't taken in to account per model visualization/parameters. Still. Cat 5.

 

[Brent]

the Euro has initalized!

Now to wait 30 minutes for the good stuff