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April 23-25th Severe Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Been completely out of the loop, but quick look at the Euro and past history makes me think the winds in the lower levels will back as we get closer to the event. You can see this on the 6z NAM.
This isn't even the ultra doomsday 3k NAM...lol
That nam run was nasty even gets things going up here lol
Ya that run was a bit nasty for sure.
12z NAM run.....12KM
I was just kidding on the RIP thing.
That sounding. Wow.
I hate that they paywalled Euro and UKMet soundings, but the 12z UKMet looked pretty nasty.
Ya looks kind of nasty
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Zander98al
Guest
What's your prognosis arcc? I enjoy your insight, on weather events. Any events in the past for the far south that come to mind?I hate that they paywalled Euro and UKMet soundings, but the 12z UKMet looked pretty nasty.
Still like 3/03/19 and 3/15/08 but I’ll throw 4/19/20 in there as well. Fro had a good point days ago when he said about dew points not getting far north in setups like this and I agree. Also areas at and within 100 miles north of the GOM seem to get the worst of these events. Right now I definitely see a hatched Enhanced possibly moderate for south East AL and most of south GA.
I agreee. I could see a MDT for MGM to MCN south
Euro is three threats;
The first is a Mesolow and nasty MCS in the morning hours across south central AL and GA. (That really reminds me of last year)
The second is supercells across southern AL into southern GA in the early to mid afternoon.
The third is severe thunderstorms with large hail across most of AL in the late afternoon.
Should be a busy day.
The first is a Mesolow and nasty MCS in the morning hours across south central AL and GA. (That really reminds me of last year)
The second is supercells across southern AL into southern GA in the early to mid afternoon.
The third is severe thunderstorms with large hail across most of AL in the late afternoon.
Should be a busy day.
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Zander98al
Guest
I'm wondering if Alabama will get the high risk trifecta modernweenie
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Zander98al
Guest
I think you were spot on with your original outline of the riskiest area arcc. It's kindve worrying the gigantic swath of area with high parameters it looks like most everybody in this forum will have a chance at decent severe weather.
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Zander98al
Guest
This gives me vibes too the lee county tornado event. Which was a moderate risk day, with the devasting tornado that road the warm front. SRH Is pretty high. I feel like things are going to start ramping up more as the 3km nam and long range HRRR get in range. Let's hope that some of these parameters are not underplayed or this very well could be the third high risk for portions of the south
You think this cape and instability will continue to rise towards NC later in the day? It looks like instability is moving rapidly in that direction but I also see it getting later in the day so i dont know if That would stop it
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Zander98al
Guest
If the LLJ is very strong then moisture transport shouldn't be too much of a problem. But I'm not that smart when it comes to this stuff lol. I only really know alabama setups. You'd have to ask Fro guy he knows that area I think
Goodness freaking gracious. This is for central GA. The tornado threat that afternoon is dependent on how much low level winds veer. However this is window smashers to a tee! Look at the LIs and 0-3km cape!
That sfc cape tho
That’s a really interesting look on the NAM would favor more tornadic stuff further east as the best speed shear in the low levels/SRH are further east 
Ya that might hurt. I have been noticing the winds veering a little more each run as well.
Should I be scared of the relative helictites like that ... that just seems so extreme hahaha what does that stuff mean
Here would be some early thoughts
Doesn't mean a ton if storms aren't sfc based tbh
BHS1975
Member
HRRR will tone it down.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Zander98al
Guest
Basically SRH helicity is the amount of spin in the atmosphere. One of the key ingredients for supercells which produce almost all severe weather. And you need surface based instability/storms to have tornadoes I'm not sure about hail and winds though.
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Zander98al
Guest
ALSO of note you need a good chunk of instability to go along with high helicty to maintain anything. Or you'll just have the updraft tore apart. Aka winter tornadoes.
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Zander98al
Guest
Guessing the line for elevated storms to risk of severe is how far the the warm front makes.
Ye
Yes
Just saw the 18z 12k. Oof size mega
Get the sun out midday Saturday into the afternoon and it gets a little rough in Eastern NC and parts of SC. Even taking the 18z 12k literally you would likely have a couple supercell like storms riding near the sfc low
Lol I had plans sat, not HSLC wedges being one of them 
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Zander98al
Guest
06z 3k nam is looking ripe for south bama.
Cant see instability due to weather.us not working right this morning, but Euro actually looks rougher than the past few days across south AL/GA wind field wise.
At this point, it's looking like (per usual) the widespread convection tomorrow will be just east of DFW.
But it's a much closer call than we've had all season. CINH looks to be non-existent and the forcing will be stronger. If thing slow down slightly or initiate a bit earlier, it could be a different story.
But it's a much closer call than we've had all season. CINH looks to be non-existent and the forcing will be stronger. If thing slow down slightly or initiate a bit earlier, it could be a different story.
Ya SPC mentioned that in the disco as well.