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April 23-25th Severe Threat

Arcc

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Euro looking really nasty for the weekend particularly for south central AL/GA. I think the analogs I like are 3/03/19 and 3/15/08. GFS is the most south and least threat, while the UKmet splits the difference. The CMC is close to the Euro.
 

Myfrotho704_

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4/23/20 is not a bad analog either, very similar synoptic scale pattern with a very similar SE Canada vortex, this setup screams the more south the more severe wx, especially towards the gulf coast
FYI in winter this is probably a winter storm CE09FAD2-BA0E-4D48-9291-3208EDE35DEB.gif 0A07D1CA-01D9-4758-82F6-F87B2501F0D0.gif AC28F3A1-51C7-4DFA-83E4-37F78EDFBABE.png 41037E89-4093-4E8E-9A99-7BD8819FF039.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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If I was a betting man, I’d bet this setup ends up further south then modeled, impressive double barrel jet structure with divergence over the SE with lots of quasigeostrophic forcing
Basically probably gonna be lots of junk that forces some sort of effective warm front/stationary boundary south 1FF1B05C-3C6F-4DCF-A73E-B50D12D203BD.png
 

ryan1234

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If I was a betting man, I’d bet this setup ends up further south then modeled, impressive double barrel jet structure with divergence over the SE with lots of quasigeostrophic forcing
Basically probably gonna be lots of junk that forces some sort of effective warm front/stationary boundary south View attachment 82041
So you're thinking this will be more of a Gulf Coast threat? Anyway we can get a little something something? I mean I'd be okay with some elevated storms. Just give me some rain.
 

cd2play

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If I was a betting man, I’d bet this setup ends up further south then modeled, impressive double barrel jet structure with divergence over the SE with lots of quasigeostrophic forcing
Basically probably gonna be lots of junk that forces some sort of effective warm front/stationary boundary south View attachment 82041
North of the WF will still have hailers, and lightning /thunder.
 

SD

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If I was a betting man, I’d bet this setup ends up further south then modeled, impressive double barrel jet structure with divergence over the SE with lots of quasigeostrophic forcing
Basically probably gonna be lots of junk that forces some sort of effective warm front/stationary boundary south View attachment 82041
Certainly has the feel of a late winter/early spring setup
 

Myfrotho704_

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So you're thinking this will be more of a Gulf Coast threat? Anyway we can get a little something something? I mean I'd be okay with some elevated storms. Just give me some rain.
Yeah I think some elevated storms are possible in NC, SC however tho is close to getting some surface based stuff especially down towards Columbia-south
 

ryan1234

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Yeah I think some elevated storms are possible in NC, SC however tho is close to getting some surface based stuff especially down towards Columbia-south
Given Columbia isn't too far from CLT, I would say this still bears some watching. Those WF boundaries and be quite sneaky and can jolt north quickly as we've seen the the past.
 

Myfrotho704_

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I think the potential around late April tho has a better chance of a more classic plains-OH valley/Dixie/Carolinas/mid atl type progression, but if we have something in the Atlantic moisture return might be a problem
 

Zander98al

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Maybe a dumb question. But what is so worrying about the potential severe weather coming up. I really haven't looked I know that a low pressure system is gonna track near north alabama though.
 
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