Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 231629Z - 231800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
next couple of hours. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z.
DISCUSSION...An area of deepening, midlevel convection atop the EML
across west-central TX is evident in radar and visible satellite
imagery as of 16z. This is indicative of increasing large-scale
ascent now spreading into western TX, in conjunction with continued
warm advection/increasing moisture beneath the weakening EML. Over
the next couple of hours, convection is expected to continue to
increase with a slow erosion of the cap. This may result in a mix of
elevated storms, transitioning toward surface-based convection
through the afternoon.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) and favorable,
elongated hodographs will support large hail. PW values increasing
to around 1.5-1.75 with northward extent, and increasing low level
flow will also promote strong/locally damaging gusts.
..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021
...Please see
www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29309832 29519883 29789911 30589935 31169932 31449930
34059863 34319832 34409769 34349711 34259672 33769649
33179633 32929633 30459625 29629661 29319716 29269775
29309832