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April 23-25th Severe Threat

RollTide18

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Still thinking extreme SE AL and most of south GA.
Funny you say that, the SPC dropped the 10% (and hatched) tornado risk area for most of Alabama except for the Dothan area, previously it had included places like Andalusia, Troy, and Enterprise.
 

Arcc

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Funny you say that, the SPC dropped the 10% (and hatched) tornado risk area for most of Alabama except for the Dothan area, previously it had included places like Andalusia, Troy, and Enterprise.
Unless that band of storms moves north or organizes, even that could bust along with areas I think have the higher tornado risk. While instability will rise later, as winds veer the tornado threat drops tremendously.
 

deltadog03

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Well this rain and wind storms are moving through now let’s see if we can destabilize for later. So far, in my opinion the models have been pretty good around here
 

deltadog03

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looking at the latest HRRR, it really tries to ramp things up later today around here. looks like some supercells are possible. Starting to see a little sun peaking through now.
 

deltadog03

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I think this is your biggest area to watch if the sun keeps trying to pop through the clouds the next few hours.

Screen Shot 2021-04-24 at 11.21.24 AM.png
 

Cbmatt2408

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Sun out and humid in LaGrange, GA. 67 and getting warmer. You can feel it out here even though we’re not in the main threat area. If this keeps up I think this west central Ga area could get hit late afternoon.
 

Zander98al

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I know the SPC doesn't seem all that excited, but the SPC mesoanalysis and satellite trends are encouraging for redevelopment in AL later today.
Not sure what to go with tbh. nam 3km is pretty bullish while the HRRR isn't. Either way. Sun is out where I'm out. And it feels muggy.
 

SouthATLwx

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Not sure what to go with tbh. nam 3km is pretty bullish while the HRRR isn't. Either way. Sun is out where I'm out. And it feels muggy.
I'm not sure what run of the HRRR you're looking at, but the 15z run does show some redevelopment. MUCAPE also recovers to 2000 J/KG.

Granted, it's not as robust as the 3km NAM.
 

BHS1975

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HRRR has been showing this for awhile. It’s king when it comes to severe weather IMO and idk why the NWS always seems to ignore it.
Yeap the new HRRR is really good. Gonna be interesting to see how it does with the summer pulse storms.


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