Unless that band of storms moves north or organizes, even that could bust along with areas I think have the higher tornado risk. While instability will rise later, as winds veer the tornado threat drops tremendously.Funny you say that, the SPC dropped the 10% (and hatched) tornado risk area for most of Alabama except for the Dothan area, previously it had included places like Andalusia, Troy, and Enterprise.
Not sure what to go with tbh. nam 3km is pretty bullish while the HRRR isn't. Either way. Sun is out where I'm out. And it feels muggy.I know the SPC doesn't seem all that excited, but the SPC mesoanalysis and satellite trends are encouraging for redevelopment in AL later today.
I'm not sure what run of the HRRR you're looking at, but the 15z run does show some redevelopment. MUCAPE also recovers to 2000 J/KG.Not sure what to go with tbh. nam 3km is pretty bullish while the HRRR isn't. Either way. Sun is out where I'm out. And it feels muggy.
Yeap the new HRRR is really good. Gonna be interesting to see how it does with the summer pulse storms.HRRR has been showing this for awhile. It’s king when it comes to severe weather IMO and idk why the NWS always seems to ignore it.