• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

April 23-25th Severe Threat

Just finished reading the spc convective forecast for tommorow. There holding off on pulling the trigger to put higher risks because of a few uncertanties. But potential is there. They note that winds will like veer some with the cold front approaching and that there's a modest tornado threat.
 
Very interesting. I'm intrigued by this event, I really wish it would all be Saturday afternoon and not late tonight and early morning as well. Cause I wanna get some sleep and not follow tornado warnings near the gulf. Big bust pontetial like y'all were saying. Let's hope 12z model runs give more clarity
 
My rule of thumb ... if there’s crapvection FORGET ABOUT IT ... that crap rain moves in around 2 pm peak heating and by the time it clears out there’s no sun ti be had ... this is a rain even for mostly SC and NC ... severe though likely areas out west
 
My rule of thumb ... if there’s crapvection FORGET ABOUT IT ... that crap rain moves in around 2 pm peak heating and by the time it clears out there’s no sun ti be had ... this is a rain even for mostly SC and NC ... severe though likely areas out west
The mcs moving through alabama through the morning ours and clearing with sun coming out during the day will limit a good bit of crap vection here I think.
 
The mcs moving through alabama through the morning ours and clearing with sun coming out during the day will limit a good bit of crap vection here I think.
Agreed it’s fast enough for y’all out west but not out East ... the outlooks should adjust to that in later outlooks
 
I've noticed a trend of more veering of winds near the cold front like spc says. Creating more SRH helicity. I'm not sure wether this is due to convection being picked up on the cams or what.
 
It looks like things are now trying to get going just to the west of Brownwood, TX.
 
On the latest day 1 outlook from the SPC, the enhanced risk areas have been shuffled around a bit.

The one covering Eastern TX / LA was shifted SW and now extends into all of far southern MS, and the one covering south central OK was expanded westward.

Otherwise, I don't see any other major changes
 
On the latest day 1 outlook from the SPC, the enhanced risk areas have been shuffled around a bit.

The one covering Eastern TX / LA was shifted SW and now extends into all of far southern MS, and the one covering south central OK was expanded westward.

Otherwise, I don't see any other major changes

Correction: A 30% hail area was added in SW OK.
 
1619196206034.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231629Z - 231800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
next couple of hours. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z.

DISCUSSION...An area of deepening, midlevel convection atop the EML
across west-central TX is evident in radar and visible satellite
imagery as of 16z. This is indicative of increasing large-scale
ascent now spreading into western TX, in conjunction with continued
warm advection/increasing moisture beneath the weakening EML. Over
the next couple of hours, convection is expected to continue to
increase with a slow erosion of the cap. This may result in a mix of
elevated storms, transitioning toward surface-based convection
through the afternoon.

Very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) and favorable,
elongated hodographs will support large hail. PW values increasing
to around 1.5-1.75 with northward extent, and increasing low level
flow will also promote strong/locally damaging gusts.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29309832 29519883 29789911 30589935 31169932 31449930
34059863 34319832 34409769 34349711 34259672 33769649
33179633 32929633 30459625 29629661 29319716 29269775
29309832
 
Back
Top