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Zander98al
Guest
Okay what in the actual heck is wrong with the 00z hrrr lol.
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April 23-25th Severe Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
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Zander98al
Guest
According the 00z hrrr it looks like central alabama may get a good chance at bad storms. After the mcs moves through in the morning clouds thin out which is no bueno on a day like Saturday. The atmosphere rapidly destabilizes as the day moves on
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Zander98al
Guest
Gotta say this hrrr run looks to be the worst I've seen. Sig tor value isn't as high but ingredient seem to be there. HRRR is in on the idea like the 18z 3k nam was on isolated cells. But the HRRR is more so. But oofs.
v
v
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Zander98al
Guest
Another frame ahead. Geez. 
RollTide18
Member
Looks like some right movers
Hrrr is a big hail setup for AL/GA Hodographs look straight
00z HRRR definitely looks nasty!!
NOW OF COURSE THIS CAN WILL PROBABLY CHANGE, BUT WITH THE LAST TOR THREAT IN MARCH THE HRRR WAS DAMN NEAR SPOT ON WITH THE TRACKS OF THE TORS. THIS IS THE STP FROM THE NAM AND HELICITY SWATHS FROM THE HRRR
Very juciy update for tomorrow from FWD:
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230112 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
812 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/
The primary weather concern over the next short term forecast
period revolves around chances for severe convection across North
and Central Texas. Friday will be a day that individuals should
monitor the weather closely from a trusted source as severe
weather will likely strike quickly. In addition, there will be a
risk for areas of fog/drizzle that could reduce visibility down to
below 1 mile.
Surface analysis in tandem with satellite imagery indicated a
conveyor of richer near surface moisture extended from South
Texas northwestward toward western reaches of the Hill Country.
Ceiling observations in tandem with aircraft data (AMDAR) from
Dallas Love Field and our presently ascending 00 UTC weather
balloon showed a large amount of dry air from near 5,000 feet
toward the surface across North and Central Texas. While the
radarscope has slowly continued to illuminate thanks to increased
mid-upper level ascent (implied by increasing high clouds), I
think we`ll be hard pressed to measure any rainfall over the next
6 to 12 hours thanks to the aformentioned dry air. As a result,
I`ve opted for a mention of sprinkles as opposed to rain showers
for many areas through 12 UTC Friday, though a few areas may
measure south of I-20 and west of US HWY 281 as ceilings fall
below 1,000 feet during the pre-dawn hours on Friday.
A warm front extended from near Del Rio to Victoria this evening
and thanks to observed surface pressure falls between 2-4 mbar
over the past several hours, this boundary should have no problem
lifting northward tonight. As it does, we`ll see an increased
advection fog potential between 3 am and sunrise across western
Central Texas and likely our initial shower and thunderstorm
development after sunrise Friday. While advective in nature, fog
processes may be hindered some as 925mb flow is expected to remain
quite turbulence and as a result of this, I`ll omit the mention
of "dense" fog from the worded forecast. However, we`ll monitor
this potential during the overnight hours.
One of the more significant changes made to the forecast (though
I`m still very cautious about this) was to delay the wording of
"severe" in the zones until the afternoon. Initial glances at
some of the hi- res model guidance would suggest that deep
convection could fire as early as 15 UTC. However, taking a look
at some of the synoptic guidance, it doesn`t appear that
appreciable height falls associated with the main PV anomaly
currently across western Arizona will not impinge upon our area
until closer to 17-18 UTC. Moreover, there`s still a little bit of
remnant capping evident in forecast soundings so the potential
for surface based convection in the morning looks low at this
time.
I still show high chance PoPs (50%) through 16 UTC for areas
near/southwest of a Jacksboro to Waco to Temple line, but I
believe the potential for a larger coverage of severe weather may
not occur until Friday afternoon...closer to 18-19 UTC (more in
accordance with the NSSL WRF and NCEP WRF ARW core). It`s possible
that even this timing may be a little too early. Does that mean
that we won`t have severe weather across our area in the morning?
NO! In fact, IF elevated convection gets going along the
northward lifting warm front, it`ll certainly have a large hail
potential given 0-6km bulk wind differences of 50 knots and
700-500mb lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. Because this activity
is expected to be elevated, I believe the damaging wind and
tornado threat will be low. Any surface based storm near the warm
front, however, will need to be monitored closely for a damaging
wind and/or tornado threat!
As stronger forcing for ascent emerges from the west, I do
believe that both newly formed and any ongoing convection will
strengthen very, very quickly. While widespread cloud cover will
likely dampen what would otherwise be much higher instability
values, CAPE is still progged to average out to around 2000 J/kg
across our area in a strongly sheared environment (supportive of
supercellular structures). Forecast soundings suggest that the
high shear and steep lapse rates would facilitate large to
potentially significant hail sizes (2+ in diameter), along with
damaging winds. 0-1 km shear values from hi-res guidance suggest
that these values will be maximized to the south and east of the
Metroplex, and thus I would anticipate a greater tornado risk
here. However, low level SRH may also increase farther north
across Northeast Texas (near and east of US HWY 75) depending on
where the frontal boundary stalls and any storm interacting with
the warm front (or any additional boundary) will have an enhanced
wind and tornado threat.
Storms will likely exit East Texas between 03-06 UTC, but the
dryline appears that it`ll lag back to the west. A cold front is
expected to crash southward from Oklahoma Friday night and
normally this would present another opportunity for additional
convection to fire. However, we`ll be on the subsident side of the
upper trough and this will likely suppress any deep convection.
However, they`ll likely be attempts along the boundary and if an
updrafts can realize what should still be unstable air, there
could be a brief strong to severe weather threat after midnight.
Bain
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230112 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
812 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/
The primary weather concern over the next short term forecast
period revolves around chances for severe convection across North
and Central Texas. Friday will be a day that individuals should
monitor the weather closely from a trusted source as severe
weather will likely strike quickly. In addition, there will be a
risk for areas of fog/drizzle that could reduce visibility down to
below 1 mile.
Surface analysis in tandem with satellite imagery indicated a
conveyor of richer near surface moisture extended from South
Texas northwestward toward western reaches of the Hill Country.
Ceiling observations in tandem with aircraft data (AMDAR) from
Dallas Love Field and our presently ascending 00 UTC weather
balloon showed a large amount of dry air from near 5,000 feet
toward the surface across North and Central Texas. While the
radarscope has slowly continued to illuminate thanks to increased
mid-upper level ascent (implied by increasing high clouds), I
think we`ll be hard pressed to measure any rainfall over the next
6 to 12 hours thanks to the aformentioned dry air. As a result,
I`ve opted for a mention of sprinkles as opposed to rain showers
for many areas through 12 UTC Friday, though a few areas may
measure south of I-20 and west of US HWY 281 as ceilings fall
below 1,000 feet during the pre-dawn hours on Friday.
A warm front extended from near Del Rio to Victoria this evening
and thanks to observed surface pressure falls between 2-4 mbar
over the past several hours, this boundary should have no problem
lifting northward tonight. As it does, we`ll see an increased
advection fog potential between 3 am and sunrise across western
Central Texas and likely our initial shower and thunderstorm
development after sunrise Friday. While advective in nature, fog
processes may be hindered some as 925mb flow is expected to remain
quite turbulence and as a result of this, I`ll omit the mention
of "dense" fog from the worded forecast. However, we`ll monitor
this potential during the overnight hours.
One of the more significant changes made to the forecast (though
I`m still very cautious about this) was to delay the wording of
"severe" in the zones until the afternoon. Initial glances at
some of the hi- res model guidance would suggest that deep
convection could fire as early as 15 UTC. However, taking a look
at some of the synoptic guidance, it doesn`t appear that
appreciable height falls associated with the main PV anomaly
currently across western Arizona will not impinge upon our area
until closer to 17-18 UTC. Moreover, there`s still a little bit of
remnant capping evident in forecast soundings so the potential
for surface based convection in the morning looks low at this
time.
I still show high chance PoPs (50%) through 16 UTC for areas
near/southwest of a Jacksboro to Waco to Temple line, but I
believe the potential for a larger coverage of severe weather may
not occur until Friday afternoon...closer to 18-19 UTC (more in
accordance with the NSSL WRF and NCEP WRF ARW core). It`s possible
that even this timing may be a little too early. Does that mean
that we won`t have severe weather across our area in the morning?
NO! In fact, IF elevated convection gets going along the
northward lifting warm front, it`ll certainly have a large hail
potential given 0-6km bulk wind differences of 50 knots and
700-500mb lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. Because this activity
is expected to be elevated, I believe the damaging wind and
tornado threat will be low. Any surface based storm near the warm
front, however, will need to be monitored closely for a damaging
wind and/or tornado threat!
As stronger forcing for ascent emerges from the west, I do
believe that both newly formed and any ongoing convection will
strengthen very, very quickly. While widespread cloud cover will
likely dampen what would otherwise be much higher instability
values, CAPE is still progged to average out to around 2000 J/kg
across our area in a strongly sheared environment (supportive of
supercellular structures). Forecast soundings suggest that the
high shear and steep lapse rates would facilitate large to
potentially significant hail sizes (2+ in diameter), along with
damaging winds. 0-1 km shear values from hi-res guidance suggest
that these values will be maximized to the south and east of the
Metroplex, and thus I would anticipate a greater tornado risk
here. However, low level SRH may also increase farther north
across Northeast Texas (near and east of US HWY 75) depending on
where the frontal boundary stalls and any storm interacting with
the warm front (or any additional boundary) will have an enhanced
wind and tornado threat.
Storms will likely exit East Texas between 03-06 UTC, but the
dryline appears that it`ll lag back to the west. A cold front is
expected to crash southward from Oklahoma Friday night and
normally this would present another opportunity for additional
convection to fire. However, we`ll be on the subsident side of the
upper trough and this will likely suppress any deep convection.
However, they`ll likely be attempts along the boundary and if an
updrafts can realize what should still be unstable air, there
could be a brief strong to severe weather threat after midnight.
Bain
That said, I'm still concerned most of the organized/widespread convection will miss DFW just to the south and east.
Enhanced Risk from SPC for Day 1
SPC expanded the Day 2 Slight Risk area further NW in Alabama:
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Nasty sounding in south central alabama tommorow at 2 o clock. Nam 3km is doomsday lol. With more SRH helicty than the HRRR projects. Will have to see what the SR HRRR shows helicty wise around that time period.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
So is the afternoon threat ssturday going to be mainly hail? See no mentions of tornadoes for the afternoon threat on the bham discussion page
What a huge difference for this area between the HRRR and 3k never bet against the wedge though.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah that 3k run is concerning for a couple tornadoes/supercells moving into the area
BHS1975
Member
HRRR looks weak
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the bust potential is high either way.