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April 23-25th Severe Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Been completely out of the loop, but quick look at the Euro and past history makes me think the winds in the lower levels will back as we get closer to the event. You can see this on the 6z NAM.
This isn't even the ultra doomsday 3k NAM...lol
That nam run was nasty even gets things going up here lol
Ya that run was a bit nasty for sure.
12z NAM run.....12KM
I was just kidding on the RIP thing.
That sounding. Wow.
I hate that they paywalled Euro and UKMet soundings, but the 12z UKMet looked pretty nasty.
Ya looks kind of nasty
Z
Zander98al
Guest
What's your prognosis arcc? I enjoy your insight, on weather events. Any events in the past for the far south that come to mind?I hate that they paywalled Euro and UKMet soundings, but the 12z UKMet looked pretty nasty.
Still like 3/03/19 and 3/15/08 but I’ll throw 4/19/20 in there as well. Fro had a good point days ago when he said about dew points not getting far north in setups like this and I agree. Also areas at and within 100 miles north of the GOM seem to get the worst of these events. Right now I definitely see a hatched Enhanced possibly moderate for south East AL and most of south GA.
I agreee. I could see a MDT for MGM to MCN south
Euro is three threats;
The first is a Mesolow and nasty MCS in the morning hours across south central AL and GA. (That really reminds me of last year)
The second is supercells across southern AL into southern GA in the early to mid afternoon.
The third is severe thunderstorms with large hail across most of AL in the late afternoon.
Should be a busy day.
The first is a Mesolow and nasty MCS in the morning hours across south central AL and GA. (That really reminds me of last year)
The second is supercells across southern AL into southern GA in the early to mid afternoon.
The third is severe thunderstorms with large hail across most of AL in the late afternoon.
Should be a busy day.
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Zander98al
Guest
I'm wondering if Alabama will get the high risk trifecta modernweenie
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Zander98al
Guest
I think you were spot on with your original outline of the riskiest area arcc. It's kindve worrying the gigantic swath of area with high parameters it looks like most everybody in this forum will have a chance at decent severe weather.
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Zander98al
Guest
This gives me vibes too the lee county tornado event. Which was a moderate risk day, with the devasting tornado that road the warm front. SRH Is pretty high. I feel like things are going to start ramping up more as the 3km nam and long range HRRR get in range. Let's hope that some of these parameters are not underplayed or this very well could be the third high risk for portions of the south
You think this cape and instability will continue to rise towards NC later in the day? It looks like instability is moving rapidly in that direction but I also see it getting later in the day so i dont know if That would stop it
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Zander98al
Guest
If the LLJ is very strong then moisture transport shouldn't be too much of a problem. But I'm not that smart when it comes to this stuff lol. I only really know alabama setups. You'd have to ask Fro guy he knows that area I think