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April 23-25th Severe Threat

RollTide18 said:
Not much convection in south Alabama until the last line comes through, hmm.
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Wouldn't trust that line of thinking just yet lol. So many factors are gonna come in play. I'm curious to whether a boundary comes from the mcs and sets somewhere in the region.
 
Can't really look at much in terms of weather models but a few hours early or later could determine if the atmosphere doesn't destabilize or does after that squall line. And also the difference between simulated radar from what I've seen I's a little concerning.
 
I gotta say the 3km nam looks ominous. With a couple batches of possible tornadic/severe storms. What complicates things is lack of congealing between models on how the radar will look. If the strong squall line comes in early and fizzles out and sets a boundary and things clear out and bake in the sun. It could get nasty. The highest risk depends on where the boundary sets up. I have a feeling the two batches of storms after the line that the 3km nam shows in the morning will be more broken up than depicted, from peeking at a few other models....As well the Sb Cape keeps bumping up with south Alabama averaging no less than 3500sbcape in most areas by looking at soundings.
 
I might actually have a shot at storms if I can stay in the marginal zone.

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